Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Hemisphere Department

Western Hemisphere, May 6, 2013

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Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Hemisphere Department

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Bibliographic details

• Published: May 6, 2013
• Series: Western Hemisphere

Executive summary and regional outlook

• Growth in Latin America is set to pick up to about 3½ percent in 2013, broadly in line with potential.
• The region continues to benefit from favorable external financing conditions and relatively high commodity prices, but these tailwinds are unlikely to last forever.
• Key challenges for policymakers:
  • Preserving macroeconomic and financial stability.
  • Building strong foundations for sustained growth in the future.

Policy recommendations and macroeconomic guidance

• Fiscal policy:
  • More prudent fiscal policy would help ease pressure on capacity constraints.
  • More prudent fiscal policy would mitigate the widening of current account deficits.
  • More prudent fiscal policy would prepare the economies better to deal with adverse external shocks.
• Exchange rate and prudential measures:
  • Exchange rate flexibility and prudential measures should continue to be used to discourage speculative capital flows.
• Structural reforms:
  • Sustaining strong output growth will require structural reforms to raise productivity growth.

Regional and country-level themes covered

• The United States, Canada, and the World: Outlook and Policy Challenges
  • Global Backdrop: Receding Risks, Three-Speed Recovery
  • The United States: Modest Growth, Bright Spots Appearing
  • Canada: Moderating Growth Amid Currency Strength
• Outlook and Policy Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean
  • Overview
  • Policy Challenges
  • Financially Integrated Economies
  • Other Commodity Exporters
  • Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic
  • The Caribbean
• Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?
  • What Factors Drove the Recent Strong Growth Performance?
  • Is the Recent Strong Performance Sustainable?
  • Policy Implications
  • Annex 3.1. Data and Methodology
• Latin America’s Fiscal and External Strength: How Dependent Is It on External Conditions?
  • Introduction
  • A Decade of Falling Public and External Debt, 2003–12
  • External Factors and Debt Sustainability
  • Conclusions
  • Annex 4.1. Global Variables under Alternative Scenarios
• Is Latin America Saving Its Terms-of-Trade Windfall? A Metric
  • The Terms-of-Trade Windfall—a Historical Perspective
  • A Measure of Windfall Saving
  • Concluding Remarks
  • Annex 5.1

Analytical focus areas and supporting materials

• Boxes addressing topical issues:
  • 1.1 U.S. Household Balance Sheets After Five Years of Repair
  • 1.2 Canadian and Mexican Exports to the United States: A Tale of Two Countries
  • 2.1 Taking Stock of European Banks’ Deleveraging in Latin America
  • 2.2 Foreign Ownership of Local Currency Securities and Exchange Rate Flexibility
  • 2.3 Sustaining Progress in Banking Regulation and Supervision in Latin America
  • 2.4 The Caribbean: In Search of Lost Competitiveness
  • 4.1 Optimal Sovereign Debt Levels: The Information in Sovereign Spreads
• Tables and indicators included:
  • Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators
  • Western Hemisphere: Main Fiscal Indicators
  • Western Hemisphere: Selected Economic and Social Indicators
  • Macroprudential (MaP) and Capital Flow Management (CFM) Measures in Latin America

IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department

Content in this bundle

• Após uma década de ouro, conseguirá a América Latina manter o seu brilho?
  • Após uma década de ouro, conseguirá a América Latina manter o seu brilho? (Markdown version)
  • Após uma década de ouro, conseguirá a América Latina manter o seu brilho? (PDF)
• REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK — America Latina crescerá mais em 2013
  • REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK — America Latina crescerá mais em 2013 (Markdown version)
  • REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK — America Latina crescerá mais em 2013 (PDF)
• Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas (edición abril de 2013)
  • Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas (edición abril de 2013) (Markdown version)
  • Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas (edición abril de 2013) (PDF)
• Regional Economic Outlook -- Western Hemisphere: Time to Rebuild Policy Space; May 2013
  • Regional Economic Outlook -- Western Hemisphere: Time to Rebuild Policy Space; May 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Regional Economic Outlook -- Western Hemisphere: Time to Rebuild Policy Space; May 2013 (PDF)
• wreo0513s
  • wreo0513s (Markdown version)
  • wreo0513s (PDF)

References

• Press Release
• Survey Story
• Blog — iMFdirect
• Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
• Regional Economic Outlooks
• IMF Regional Reports
• World Economic Outlook Archives
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