Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges


Luis M. Cubeddu ; Alexander Culiuc ; Ghada Fayad ; Yuan Gao ; Kalpana Kochhar ; Annette J Kyobe ; Ceyda Oner ; Roberto Perrelli ; Sarah Sanya ; Evridiki Tsounta ; Zhongxia Zhang

Publication Date:

June 12, 2014

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Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.


After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.


Staff Discussion Notes No. 2014/006



Publication Date:

June 12, 2014



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