Technical Notes and Manuals

A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs

By Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Leonardo Martinez, Jorge Restrepo

January 24, 2025

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Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Leonardo Martinez, and Jorge Restrepo. "A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs", Technical Notes and Manuals 2025, 001 (2025), accessed February 7, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289446.005

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Disclaimer: This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Note are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This guide presents the analytical underpinnings and a manual for the Public Debt Dynamics Tool with Gross Financing Needs (DDT_GFN), an extension of the Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT). The DDT projects public debt as percent of GDP under a baseline and alternative scenarios. The DDT_GFN presents debt-to-GDP projections and the corresponding public gross financing needs (GFN)-to-GDP projections for all DDT scenarios, including fan charts for both public debt and GFN. The DDT_GFN also computes fiscal adjustment paths for a user defined GFN target and adjustment period. Twelve often publicly available macrofiscal variables are needed to perform a rich analysis of public debt and GFN dynamics. The DDT_GFN was developed by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development to be used for its capacity development work on macroeconomic frameworks for forecasting and policy analysis.

Subject: External debt, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Foreign currency debt, Local currency debt, Public debt

Keywords: Adjustment scenario, Data IMF Library, Data input, DDT, DDT_GFN, Dynamics tool, Fiscal adjustment paths, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal stance, Foreign currency debt, Local- and foreign-currency debt, Local currency debt, Public debt dynamics, Public Debt Dynamics Tool, Public debt projection, Public gross financing needs

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