IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005

World Economic Outlook, April 7, 2005

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005

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Bibliographic details

Published: April 7, 2005
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview

Title: Globalization and External Imbalances
Type: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
Date elements present in the document: April 13, 2005; April 2005
Languages indicated: 中文, English
Document navigation items listed: The World Economic Outlook; Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference; Other issues of the World Economic Outlook; Research at the IMF; Email notification sign-up; Modify your profile
Format notes: Table of Contents with links to the full text in PDF format; instruction to use Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files; Webcasts—Technical Information

Contents and Major Sections

Assumptions and Conventions (111 kb pdf file)
Preface
Foreword
Chapter I. Economic Prospects and Policies (525 kb pdf file)
- Country/regional headings listed under Chapter I:
- United States and Canada: More Ambitious fiscal Consolidation is Needed in the United States
- Western Europe: Renewed Concerns About the Strength of the Recovery
- Japan: Will Growth Resume?
- Emerging Asia and the Pacific: A Continuing Expansion, but External Surpluses Persist
- Latin America: Is Fiscal Policy on the Right Track at Last?
- Emerging Europe: Current Account Deficits Remain a Challenge
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Has Disinflation Bottomed Out?
- Africa: Turning the Corner?
- The Middle East: How Is the Recycling of Oil Revenues Affecting the Global Economy?
- Appendix 1.1 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets
- References
Chapter II. Two Current Issues Facing Developing Countries (274 kb pdf file)
- Workers' Remittances and Economic Development
- Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries
- Appendix 2.1. Workers' Remittances and Economic Development: Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods
- Appendix 2.2. Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Country Coverage, Methodology, and Data
Chapter III. Financial Globalization (311 kb pdf file)
- Real Globalization
- The Effects of Globalization: An Integrated Perspective
- Summary and Policy Implications
- Appendix 3.1. Net Foreign Assets, Valuation, and Adjustment: A Glossary Of Terms
- Appendix 3.2. Econometric Evidence on the Valuation Channel
- Appendix 3.3. Details on Rigidities and Monetary Policy Rule Used in the GEM Simulation
Chapter IV. Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight? (272 kb pdf file)
- Basic Stylized Facts
- Medium- and Long-Term Projections
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
- Appendix 4.1. Oil Market Prospects: Data and Modeling Strategy
Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair (56 kb pdf file)
Statistical Appendix (376 kb pdf file)
- Assumptions
- What's New
- Data and Conventions
- Classifications of Countries
- List of Tables (multiple table groups covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, External Financing, External Debt, Flow of Funds, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario)
Boxes (84 kb pdf file) — box titles include:
- 1.1 The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian Economies
- 1.2 What Are the risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates?
- 1.3 The Ending of Global Textile Trade Quotas
- 1.4 What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances?
- 1.5 How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth?
- 1.6 How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use their Oil Revenues?
- 2.1 Workers' Remittances and Emigration in the Caribbean
- 2.2 Regulating Remittances
- 2.3 Why Is Volatility Harmful?
- 2.4 Balance of Payments Data on Workers' Remittances
- 3.1 External Imbalances Then and Now
- 3.2 Measuring a Country's Net External Position
- 3.3 Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies
- 3.4 Monetary Policy in a Globalized World
- 4.1 Should Countries Worry About Oil Price Fluctuations?
- 4.2 Data Quality in the Oil Market

Key Data, Tables, and Figures (inventory as listed)

Tables and table groups include:
- Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows
- Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
- Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
- Sector- and region-specific table groups (Selected Asian Economies, Selected Western Hemisphere Countries, Emerging Europe, CIS, Selected African Countries, Selected Middle Eastern Countries)
- 1.12 Global Oil Demand by Region
- 1.13 Nonenergy Commodity Prices
- 1.14 Relative Forecasting Performance: Futures Versus Random Walk Model
- Regression and volatility tables under Chapters II and III, including "Regression Results: Impact of Workers' Remittances", "Contributors to Volatility in Real Per Capita Output Growth", "Gross Assets and Liabilities, 1980-2003", "Overseas Portfolio Investment", and multiple calibration and simulation tables in Chapter III and Chapter IV (e.g., 4.4 Projections of Non-OPEC Oil Supply; 4.5 Projected Oil Demand, Non-OPEC Supply, and Call on OPEC)
Figures and figure groups include:
- Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Exchange Rate Developments; Global Inflation; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; Global Outlook
- Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Countries; Household and Corporate Balance Sheets
- Region- and topic-specific figures (United States, Western Europe, Japan, Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East)
- Oil market and commodity figures: Oil Prices, Future, and Production; Commercial Oil Inventories and World Refinery Capacity; Nonenergy Commodities; Semiconductor Market; Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Prices
- Remittances and related figures: Workers' Remittances and Other Foreign Exchange Flows to Developing Countries; Remittances: Sources and Destinations; Developing Countries: 20 Largest Recipients of Remittances; Cost of Sending $200 in Remittances from the United States
- Volatility and globalization figures: Volatility of Output Growth; Volatility of Output Growth by Region; Global Factor and Actual Global Growth; Financial Globalization Trends, 1970-2003; External Current Account Balances and Net External Positions, 1970-2003; Global Rebalancing Under Benign Financial Market Conditions; Global Rebalancing Under Adverse Financial Market Conditions
- Oil-specific figures: Oil Consumption; Oil Consumption per Unit of Output; Oil Production and Reserves; OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply; Long-Term Projections of Oil Demand; Vehicle Ownership and Per Capita Income; Profitability of Various OPEC Market Strategies; Oil Demand in Advanced Economies; Oil Demand in Emerging Market and Developing Countries; Decomposition of Oil Price Movements

Analytical Focus and Policy Content (as structured in the source)

Chapter-level analytical themes explicitly present:
- Economic prospects and policy analysis across major advanced economies, emerging markets, and regions
- Two current issues for developing countries: Workers' Remittances and Output Volatility
- Financial Globalization: trends, determinants, valuation/valuation-channel econometrics, implications for macroeconomic policy, simulation details (GEM)
- Oil market analysis: Basic stylized facts, medium- and long-term projections, conclusions and policy recommendations
Explicit mention of sections dedicated to:
- Summary and Policy Implications (Chapter III)
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations (Chapter IV)
- Appendices providing data, methodology, and modeling strategies for core analyses

Document Access and Technical Notes

Individual PDF file sizes as listed in the Table of Contents: 111 kb; 525 kb; 274 kb; 311 kb; 272 kb; 56 kb; 376 kb; 84 kb
Instruction: "Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files."

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- April 2005

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Overview

Contents and Major Sections

Key Data, Tables, and Figures (inventory as listed)

Analytical Focus and Policy Content (as structured in the source)

Document Access and Technical Notes

Content in this bundle

References