IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain, April 2012
World Economic Outlook, April 17, 2012
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 17, 2012
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Global outlook and main findings
- The April 2012 edition assesses prospects for the global economy, which "has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011."
- The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area.
- Recovery prospects:
- "Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies."
- "Activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies."
- The improvement is characterized as "very fragile"; policymakers must both:
- Calibrate policies to support growth in the near term.
- Implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term.
- Corrections to the text noted: "Corrections as of August 15, 2012."
Chapter highlights and substantive analysis
- Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
- Presents indicators, boxes, charts, tables, and downside and upside scenarios.
- Notable analytical elements listed:
- Boxes on labor share and the global recovery.
- Tables including "Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections" and commodity-related tables (e.g., "Global Oil Demand and Production by Region").
- Figures on "Global Indicators," "Recent Financial Market Developments," "Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators," and "Risks to the Global Outlook."
- Specific downside scenarios: "WEO Downside Scenario for Increased Bank and Sovereign Stress in the Euro Area," "WEO Downside Scenario for Disruption to the Global Oil Supply," and "WEO Downside Scenario for Reevaluation of Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Economies."
- Specific upside scenario: "WEO Upside Scenario."
- Chapter 3: Dealing with Household Debt
- Focus: elevated household debt burdens following asset price declines since the Great Recession.
- Analyzes effects of household debt after housing busts and how government policies can reduce economic costs.
- Case studies and empirical material include:
- "The U.S. Home Owners' Loan Corporation" and "Household Debt Restructuring in Iceland."
- Empirical panels and figures such as "Household Debt, House Prices, and Nonperforming Mortgage Loans, 2002–10," "The U.S. Housing Market, 2000–11," and "Household Balance Sheets during the Great Recession in Iceland."
- Historical comparisons: "Foreclosures and Household Debt during the Great Depression in the United States."
- Chapter 4: Commodity Price Swings and Commodity Exporters
- Theme: commodity exporters benefited from the run-up in commodity prices over the past decade but face concerns if prices plateau or fall.
- Key analytic components:
- "Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Low-Income Countries" and "Volatile Commodity Prices and the Development Challenge in Low-Income Countries."
- Empirical coverage: "Average Economic Performance of Net Commodity Exporters, 1970–2010" and "Economic Performance of Net Commodity Exporters during the 2000s."
- Modeling and policy analysis: "Dynamic Effects of Global Commodity Market Shocks," "Domestic Macroeconomic Effects of Global Commodity Market Shocks," and "Comparison of Policy Instruments for Permanent Increases in Oil Royalties."
- Time-series and statistical material: "World Commodity Prices, 1970–2011" and "Statistical Properties of Real Commodity Prices."
Country and regional perspectives
- Chapter 2 provides country and regional analysis across multiple groupings with individual figures and tables:
- Regional breakdowns and indicators for Europe, the United States and Canada, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Specific sections and titles include: "Europe: Back in Recession," "United States: Pulling Itself Up by Its Bootstraps," "Asia: Growth Is Moderating," "Latin America: Watch Out for Downdrafts," "Middle East and North Africa: A Sea of Troubles," and "Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Resilience."
- Analyses of euro area spillovers, trade and financial linkages, and revisions to 2012 GDP growth forecasts for multiple regions.
Risks, scenarios, and policy implications
- Risks highlighted:
- Fragility of the nascent global recovery and large downside risks.
- Euro area bank and sovereign stress as a key downside scenario.
- Disruption to global oil supply as a scenario affecting outcomes.
- Reevaluation of potential output growth in emerging market economies as a downside risk.
- Policy implications emphasized:
- Near-term policy calibration to support growth.
- Medium-term structural and fundamental policy changes to secure healthy growth.
- For commodity exporters: adapt fiscal and other policies if commodity prices "are unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace," and plan for possible lower potential output growth.
Data, annexes, and supplementary materials
- Extensive supporting materials and data:
- Assumptions and conventions, statistical appendix, tables by topic (Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario).
- Classification tables: "Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011."
- Annex: "IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2012."
- Time spans and historical series cited across chapters include date ranges such as "1970–2010," "1970–2011," "2000–11," "2002–10," and "1988–95."
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain, April 2012
Content in this bundle
- مقدمة وملخص واف: تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي ؛ إبريل 2012
- 2012年4月期《世界经济展望》序言, 概要, 2012年4月17日
- Perspectives de l'économie mondiale; avril 2012
- 世界経済見通し
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- Press points for Chapter 3: Dealing with Household Debt, World Economic Outlook, April 2012
- Press Points for Chapter 4: Commodity Price Swings and Commodity Exporters
- Annex - World Economic Outlook
- chapter 1 Global ProsPects and Policies
- _c2pdf
- _c3pdf
- chapter 4 commodity Price swinGs and commodity exPorters
- April 2012 World Economic Outlook
- Executive Summary - World Economic Outlook
- Foreword - World Economic Outlook
- Assumptions and Conventions
- world economic outlook: tensions from the two-speed recovery
- Preface - World Economic Outlook
- Statistical Appendix - World Economic Outlook
- List of Tables Part A - World Economic Outlook
- List of Tables Part B - World Economic Outlook
- World Economic Outlook
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Апрель 2012 года - Возобновление роста, сохранение рисков
- Texts
- Figure 1.1.1 Evolution of the Labor Share during the Great Recession and Recovery
- Figure 1.1. Global Indicators
- Figure 1.10 Emerging Market Economies
- Figure 1.11. Global Imbalances
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