IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Slowing Growth, Rising Risks, September 2011 — Table of Contents
World Economic Outlook, September 21, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 21, 2011
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Global outlook: press points and executive summary
- The September 2011 edition assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in "a dangerous new phase."
- Key diagnostic findings:
- "Global activity has weakened and become more uneven."
- "Confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing."
- "Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area."
- Two forces shaping the global outlook highlighted explicitly:
- "High and rising commodity prices."
- "The need for many economies to address large budget deficits."
Inflation and monetary policy (Chapter 3 focus)
- Chapter 3 examines:
- "The inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response."
- Specific topics listed: "Commodity Price Swings and Inflation"; "Monetary Policy and Food Price Shocks: A Simulation-Based Perspective"; "Policy Implications for Responding to Commodity Price Shocks."
- Supporting materials indicated: "Full Text | Video | Summary | Boxes | Figures."
- Appendices supporting analysis: "Appendix 3.1. Economies in the Data Set" and "Appendix 3.2. Technical Appendix."
Fiscal policy, trade balances, and spillovers (Chapter 4 focus)
- Chapter 4 explores:
- "The implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures."
- Analytical themes: "Estimating the Strength of the Twin Deficits Link"; "Insights from Model-Based Simulations"; "Summary and Implications for the Outlook."
- Model and methodological support: "Appendix 4.1 Data Construction and Sources"; "Appendix 4.2 Statistical Methodology, Robustness Checks, and Selected Additional Results on Export and Import Responses"; "Appendix 4.3 Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF)."
- Supporting materials indicated: "Full Text | Video | Summary | Figures."
Regional and country perspectives (Chapter 2 highlights)
- Chapter 2 contains country and regional diagnostics with emphasis on heterogeneous performance:
- "The United States: Weakening Again amid Daunting Debt Challenges"
- "Europe: Enduring Economic and Financial Turbulence"
- "Commonwealth of Independent States: Moderate Growth Performance"
- "Asia: Securing a More Balanced Expansion"
- "Latin America and the Caribbean: Moving toward More Sustainable Growth"
- "Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion"
- "Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalling amid Uncertainty"
- Supporting materials indicated: "Full Text | Figures."
Risks, scenarios, and policy challenges (Chapter 1 and cross-cutting)
- Chapter 1 themes and risk framing:
- "Slowing Global Activity"
- "Renewed Financial Instability"
- "More Uneven Expansion"
- "Economic Slack alongside Signs of Overheating"
- "Risks Are Clearly to the Downside"
- "Policy Challenges"
- "National Perspectives on Policy Challenges"
- "Multilateral Perspectives on Policy Challenges"
- Visual and scenario content referenced: "WEO Downside Scenario", "Risks to the Global Outlook", and multiple figures on cyclical conditions, global inflation, commodity prices, and global imbalances.
Data, tables, and statistical support
- A comprehensive "Statistical Appendix" and numerous tables and figures underpin projections and diagnostics, including but not limited to:
- "Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2010"
- "Table A. Classification..."; extensive lists of output, inflation, financial policies, foreign trade, current account, balance of payments, and medium-term baseline scenario tables (designated A and B series).
- Boxes cited that address specific analytical topics (examples):
- 1.1 "Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced Economies"
- 1.2 "Credit Boom-Bust Cycles: Their Triggers and Policy Implications"
- 3.1 "Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 2008 Commodity Price Surge"
- 3.2 "Food Price Swings and Monetary Policy in Open Economies"
- A.1 "Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies"
Corrections and errata
- Correction to Table 1.3.2 in Chapter 1, Box 3:
- "The logit coefficient for 'Equity Price Change in Quarter t (Change in quarterly average equity price index)' for the United States in column (1) wrongly appears as –1.181* but should instead be –0.181*."
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Slowing Growth, Rising Risks, September 2011 — Table of Contents
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- Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy
- 4sumpdf
- Annexpdf
- World Economic Outlook
- C2pdf
- C3pdf
- Exesumpdf
- Forewordpdf
- Frontpdf
- Infopdf
- Prefacepdf
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- Statapppdf
- Sumpdf
- Tablespdf
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- World Economic Outlook - September 2011 - Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики, сентябрь 2011 года. Тезисы для прессы по главам 2 и 3
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Cентябрь 2011 года - Замедление роста, увеличение рисков
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики - Cентябрь 2011 года - Замедление роста, увеличение рисков
- Perspectivas de la economía mundial, septiembre de 2011 - Notas de prensa de los capítulos 3 y 4
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- Texts
- Box3 1 1
- Box312
- box3_1_3
- box3_2_1
- Box3 2 2
- Figure 1.1.1. Trends in Employment and Labor Productivity
- Figure 1.1.2. Sectoral Trends May Affect Potential Output Growth
- Fig1 1 3
- Fig1 1
- Fig1 10
- Fig1 11
- Fig1 12
- Fig1 13
- Fig1 14
- Fig1 15
- Figure 1.16. WEO Downside Scenario
- Figure 1.18. Policy Requirements in Emerging Market Economies
- Figure 1.19. External Developments
- Figure 1.2.1. Credit Booms
- Figure 1.2. Financial Strains in Europe and the United States
- Figure 1.20. Global Imbalances
- Figure 1.21. Employment and Unemployment
- Figure 1.22. Drivers of Global Growth and Rebalancing
- Figure 1.23. Commodity Prices
- Figure 1.24. World Energy Market Developments
- Figure 1.25. Developments in Base Metal Markets
- Figure 1.26. Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops
- Figure 1.3.1. Predicted Probability of a New Recession in a Quarter
- dataset overview: fig1_3
- Fig1 4 1
- Figure 1.4.2. Commodity Price Volatility, 1990�2011
- Figure 1.4.3. Commodity Futures Risk Premiums
- Figure 1.4. Prospects for Near-Term Activity
- Figure 1.5.1. Net Foreign Asset Indicators in the Run-up to External Crises
- Figure 1.5.2. Model Estimate of Crisis Probabilities
- Figure 1.5. Global Outlook
- Figure 1.6. Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators
- Figure 1.7. Balance Sheets and Saving Rates
- Figure 1.8. Emerging Market Conditions
- Fig1 9
- Figure 2.1 — Current Global Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.10. Asia: A Bright Spot in the World Economy
- Figure 2.11. Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.12. Latin America: Maintaining the Growth Momentum
- fig2_13 — Dataset overview
- Figure 2.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Strength
- Figure 2.15. Middle East and North Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.16. Middle East and North Africa: Weakening Activity in an Uncertain Environment
- Fig2 2
- Figure 2.3. United States and Canada: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.4. United States: Struggling to Gain a Foothold
- Figure 2.5. Europe: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.6. Europe: An Uneven Performance and Elevated Risks
- Figure 2.7. Commonwealth of Independent States: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 2.8. Commonwealth of Independent States: A Gradual Recovery
- Figure 2.9. Asia: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average
- Figure 3.1. World Commodity Prices, 2000-11
- Figure 3.10. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Emerging and Developing Economy
- Figure 3.11. Inflation-Output Policy Frontier
- Fig3 12
- Figure 3.13. Response to a Food Price Shock in a Stylized Advanced Economy
- Figure 3.14. One-Time versus Persistent Food Price Shocks
- Figure 3.15. Response to a Food Price Shock amid Current Cyclical Conditions
- Figure 3.2. World Commodity Prices, 1957-2011
- Figure 3.3. Food Price Forecasts
- fig3_4
- Figure 3.5. Variability of Real Domestic Prices
- Figure 3.6. Food Weight in Consumption Basket
- Fig3 7
- Figure 3.8. Response of Inflation Expectations to Inflation Surprises
- Fig3 9
- Figure 4.1. Incidence of Action-based Fiscal Policy Changes by Year
- Fig4 10
- fig4_11 — Planned Fiscal Adjustment and Its Current Account Impact: GIMF Simulations
- Fig4 12
- Figure 4.13. Effects on the Current Account of a 1 Percent of GDP Fiscal Policy Change
- Figure 4.14. Fiscal Instruments and Their Effects on the Current Account
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