World Economic Outlook
The Global Economy After September 11
December 2001
December 2001
Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks
©2001 International
Monetary Fund
| The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities. |
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| 393k pdf file | Assumptions and Conventions |
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| Preface | ||
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| Chapter I. |
Containing the Risks to the Global Economy |
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| 518k pdf file | Appendix: Contagion and Its Causes | |
| References | ||
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| Chapter II. 230k pdf file |
How Has September 11 Influenced the Global Economy? | |
| Direct Impact of the Attacks | ||
| The Confidence Channel | ||
| Financial Market Reaction | ||
| Commodity Markets | ||
| References | ||
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| Chapter III. | Global and Regional Economic Prospects | |
| 452k pdf file | The Global Outlook | |
| Emerging Markets | ||
| Appendix: Alternative Scenario—Impact
of a More Gradual Increase in Confidence and Risk Appetite |
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| References | ||
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| Annex. Summing Up By the Acting Chair | ||
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| Statistical Appendix | ||
| Assumptions | ||
| List of Tables | ||
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| Boxes | ||
| 1.1 | Policymaking Under Uncertainty | |
| 2.1 | The Long-Term Impact of September 11 | |
| 2.2 | Financial Market Dislocations and Policy Responses After the September 11 Attacks |
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| 2.3 | Investor Risk Appetite | |
| 2.4 | How Did the September 11 Attacks Affect Exchange Rate Expectations? |
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| 3.1 | The Accuracy of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts: 1991–2000 |
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| 3.2 | Fiscal Stimulus and the Outlook for the
United States |
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| 3.3 | The Effects of the September 11 Attacks on the Caribbean Region |
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| 3.4 | Argentina: An Uphill Struggle to Regain Confidence |
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| Tables | ||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections |
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| 1.2 | The Channels of Contagion or Spillovers
in Selected Crises |
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| 2.1 | Direct Costs of September 11 Attacks | |
| 2.2 | Impact of Confidence Indices on the Growth
of Real GDP |
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| 2.3 | Developments in Financial Markets | |
| 2.4 | Change in the Implied Earnings Growth Rates over the Next Year |
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| 2.5 | United States: Consensus Forecasts During January–October 2001 for Pre-Tax Profits |
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| 2.6 | Estimated Effects of Commodity Price Changes on GDP Growth |
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| 3.1 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
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| 3.2 | Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
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| 3.3 | Selected Developing and Transition Economies:
Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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| 3.4 | Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows | |
| 3.5 | Alternative Scenario: Delayed Strengthening
in Consumer Confidence and Risk Appetite |
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| 3.6 | Alternative Scenario: Delayed Recovery
in Financing Flows to Emerging Markets |
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| 3.7 | Ready Reckoners of Individual Shocks | |
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| Figures | ||
| 1.1 | Global Indicators | |
| 1.2 | Selected Financial Market Indicators | |
| 1.3 | Selected European Union Countries, Japan,
and United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence |
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| 1.4 | Private Sector Forecasts | |
| 1.5 | Global Output, Industrial Production, and Trade Growth |
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| 1.6 | Average Cross-Correlation of Emerging Debt Markets |
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| 2.1 | Stock Market Indices by Industry | |
| 2.2 | United States: Indicators of Consumer
and Business Confidence |
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| 2.3 | Credit and Bond Markets | |
| 3.1 | Macroeconomic Indicators—Advanced Economies | |
| 3.2 | Technology and Total Exports in Emerging Asia | |
| 3.3 | Linkages Between Central and Western Europe | |
| 3.4 | Fuel and Nonfuel Commodity Exporting Countries | |
| 3.5 | Impact of a Delayed Reversion in Global Confidence and Risk Appetite |
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| World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–2001 | ||
