Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author/Editor:

C. John McDermott ; Paul Cashin ; Alasdair Scott

Publication Date:

November 1, 1999

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Series:

Working Paper No. 99/155

English

Publication Date:

November 1, 1999

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451857290/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1551999

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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