Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
November 1, 1999
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Summary
This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
Subject: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural prices, Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices
Keywords: boom, commodity price, good, price, slump, WP
Pages:
25
Volume:
1999
DOI:
Issue:
155
Series:
Working Paper No. 1999/155
Stock No:
WPIEA1551999
ISBN:
9781451857290
ISSN:
1018-5941
