China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's
September 1, 1991
More Formats on IMF eLibrary
Order a Print CopyDisclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary
This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.
Subject: Currencies, Imports, Industrial production, Inflation, International trade, Monetary base, Monetary expansion, Money, Prices, Production
Keywords: broad money, credit plan, credit policy, Currencies, establishment of the People's Bank of China, further price liberalization, Imports, Industrial production, Inflation, Monetary base, monetary policy, monetary policy formulation, PBC credit, People's Bank of China, price, price determination, price distortion, price reform, price system, retail price index, two-tier price system, WP
Pages:
39
Volume:
1991
DOI:
Issue:
085
Series:
Working Paper No. 1991/085
Stock No:
WPIEA0851991
ISBN:
9781451954210
ISSN:
1018-5941
