China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's
Summary:
This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.
Series:
Working Paper No. 1991/085
Subject:
Currencies Imports Industrial production Inflation International trade Monetary base Monetary expansion Money Prices Production
English
Publication Date:
September 1, 1991
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451954210/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA0851991
Pages:
39
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