Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach

Author/Editor:

Alexei P Kireyev

Publication Date:

March 1, 2000

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2000/054

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2000

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451847505/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0542000

Pages:

52

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