Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Author/Editor:

Steven T Phillips ; Alberto Musso

Publication Date:

May 1, 2001

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Series:

Working Paper No. 01/45

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

May 1, 2001

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451846478/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0452001

Format:

Paper

Pages:

34

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org