El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?

IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2000

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El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Allan D. Brunner
• Published: December 1, 2000
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874440.001

Key findings

• ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices.
• A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points.
• ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years.
• ENSO has explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables.

Quantitative impacts and explanatory power

• Real commodity price inflation response to a one-standard-deviation positive ENSO surprise: about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points.
• Share of recent commodity price inflation movements explained by ENSO: almost 20 percent.
• Share of movements in world consumer price inflation and world economic activity explained by ENSO: about 10 to 20 percent.

Scope, subjects, and keywords

• Subjects: Agricultural commodities, Commodities, Commodity prices, Consumer prices, Inflation, Prices.
• Keywords: Agricultural commodities, commodity, Commodity prices, Consumer prices, El Niño, El Nino southern oscillation, ENSO, ENSO cycle, ENSO event, ENSO intensity, ENSO measure, ENSO shock, Inflation, inflation movement, price, primary commodity prices, South America, WP.

Publication and document metadata

• Author: Allan D. Brunner
• Date: December 1, 2000
• Series: Working Paper No. 2000/203
• Issue: 203
• Volume: 2000
• Pages: 34
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874440.001
• ISBN: 9781451874440
• ISSN: 1018-5941
• Stock No: WPIEA2032000

Content based on the IMF Working Paper "El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?" by Allan D. Brunner (December 1, 2000).

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