Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan

Author/Editor:

Joannes Mongardini ; Tahsin Saadi Sedik

Publication Date:

August 1, 2003

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2003/170

Subject:

Business cycles Cyclical indicators Economic growth Emerging and frontier financial markets Financial markets Industrial production Production Production index

English

Publication Date:

August 1, 2003

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451858440/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1702003

Pages:

32

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