Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa
September 1, 2003
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Summary
This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for predicting inflation and could thus provide valuable input for formulating macroeconomic policy. Growth accounting and regression analysis suggest that an increase in trend GDP growth after the end of apartheid in 1994 is attributable to higher TFP growth driven by trade liberalization and greater private sector participation.
Subject: Capacity utilization, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Production growth, Total factor productivity
Keywords: Africa, Capacity utilization, estimate, estimates of the output gap, inflation, output gap, output gap measure, output gap methodology, potential GDP, Potential output, production function approach, Production growth, South Africa, total factor productivity, WP
Pages:
21
Volume:
2003
DOI:
Issue:
178
Series:
Working Paper No. 2003/178
Stock No:
WPIEA1782003
ISBN:
9781451858976
ISSN:
1018-5941
