The Determinants of U.S. Real Interest Rates in the Long Run

IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1991

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The Determinants of U.S. Real Interest Rates in the Long Run

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Sharmini Coorey
• Published: December 1, 1991
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854053.001

Research objective and methods

• Examines factors influencing the behavior of U.S. real interest rates over the long run.
• Tests data on real and nominal returns to bonds and equities for unit root non-stationarity.
• Employs ADF statistic / ADF test (as indicated in keywords) and cointegration analysis.

Key empirical findings

• Real and nominal interest rates and inflation are integrated of order one.
• Evidence on returns to equities is mixed.
• Short- and long-term real rates were found to be cointegrated with:
  • government deficits
  • government debt relative to GNP
  • private wealth
  • real balances relative to GNP
  • demographic factors
  • the marginal productivity of capital
• Demographic, fiscal, and monetary policy variables appear to be particularly significant.

Subjects and keywords (as listed)

• Subjects: Financial institutions, Financial services, Government debt management, Inflation, Prices, Production, Public financial management (PFM), Real interest rates, Stocks, Total factor productivity
• Keywords: ADF statistic, ADF test, federal budget, Government debt management, Inflation, inflation rate, physical capital, real GNP, real interest rate, real interest rate processes, Real interest rates, real rate of interest, Stocks, Total factor productivity, weighted index, WP

Notable bibliographic and access items

• Citation example provided on the page: Sharmini Coorey. "The Determinants of U.S. Real Interest Rates in the Long Run", IMF Working Papers 1991, 118 (1991), accessed 9/17/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854053.001

Source: IMF Working Paper — "The Determinants of U.S. Real Interest Rates in the Long Run" by Sharmini Coorey (Working Paper No. 1991/118).