Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Author/Editor:

Patrick Blagrave ; Peter Elliott ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Douglas Hostland ; Douglas Laxton ; Fan Zhang

Publication Date:

December 19, 2013

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has several unique features which differentiate it from the rest of emerging Asia. These features (the use of multiple monetary-policy instruments and a managed-floating exchange-rate policy) mean that a separate treatment of China allows for a better consideration of China, as well as how the rest of emerging Asia behaves.

Series:

Working Paper No. 13/256

Subject:

China Commodity prices Exchange rate regimes Forecasting models Inflation Monetary policy Spillovers

English

Publication Date:

December 19, 2013

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484317631/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2013256

Format:

Paper

Pages:

33

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