Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence : What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?

Author/Editor:

Edda Zoli

Publication Date:

March 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average.

Series:

Working Paper No. 09/41

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451871890/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009041

Format:

Paper

Pages:

21

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