Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies
February 1, 2010
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Summary
This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.
Subject: Current account, Current account balance, Fiscal stance, Oil, Real exchange rates
Keywords: current account norm, estimate, GDP, WP
Pages:
22
Volume:
2010
DOI:
Issue:
043
Series:
Working Paper No. 2010/043
Stock No:
WPIEA2010043
ISBN:
9781451962994
ISSN:
1018-5941
