Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

Author/Editor:

Jordi Prat ; Leandro Medina ; Alun H. Thomas

Publication Date:

February 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.

Series:

Working Paper No. 10/43

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

February 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451962994/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010043

Format:

Paper

Pages:

22

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