Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa
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Summary:
This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in tax bases. Change in the credit to private sector also has some affect on the revenue performance; however, asset and commodity prices are not significant in explaining the deviation of revenue from its trend. Nonetheless, quantitative effects of these prices are subject to assumptions used for long-run price levels.
Series:
Working Paper No. 10/216
Subject:
Asset prices Bank credit Budgets Business cycles Commodity prices Credit expansion Economic models Exports Mining sector Private sector South Africa Tax bases Tax collection Tax revenues
English
Publication Date:
September 1, 2010
ISBN/ISSN:
9781455208814/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2010216
Format:
Paper
Pages:
24
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