GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

Author/Editor:

Ioan Carabenciov ; Charles Freedman ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Douglas Laxton ; Ondrej Kamenik ; Petar Manchev

Publication Date:

April 10, 2013

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/087

Subject:

Central bank policy rate Financial services Foreign exchange Inflation Output gap Prices Production Real exchange rates Real interest rates

English

Publication Date:

April 10, 2013

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484318942/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2013087

Pages:

79

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