Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries: Macroeconomic Dimensions

IMF Working Papers, March 16, 2016

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The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security.
The paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters.
It finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.

Presents a framework to assess vulnerability to food crises triggered by natural disasters.
Uses probit models (listed subject: Probit models) as part of the analytical approach.
Focus on relationships among natural disasters, food production, and food security in low-income country contexts.

Natural disasters materially affect food production and food security in low-income countries.
Macroeconomic indicators and structural indicators that support resilience to external shocks are also important for reducing the likelihood of food crises following natural disasters.
Subjects listed: Export prices, Financial crises, Food production, Natural disasters, Probit models.

Strengthen macroeconomic resilience in low-income countries to mitigate the risk of food crises after natural disasters.
Reinforce structural factors that support food production and food security as part of disaster preparedness and recovery strategies.
Integrate assessments of macroeconomic and structural indicators into country-level vulnerability analyses for food crises.