The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications

Author/Editor:

Samya Beidas-Strom ; Weicheng Lian ; Ashwaq Maseeh

Publication Date:

December 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.

Series:

Working Paper No. 09/288

Subject:

Business cycles Consumption Cross country analysis Economic models Emerging markets Household credit Housing prices Middle East Middle East and Central Asia North Africa Price increases Real estate prices

English

Publication Date:

December 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451874334/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009288

Format:

Paper

Pages:

29

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