The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country
IMF Working Papers, February 25, 2015
Source details
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- The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Romain Houssa, Jolan Mohimont, Christopher Otrok
- Published: February 25, 2015
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498310147.001
Objective
- Examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana.
- Provide benchmark results for South Africa to document differences between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development.
Methodology
- Identify exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks.
- Use a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models.
Key Findings
- Global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana.
- Global shocks operate through three channels:
- trade
- credit
- commodity prices
Subject Areas and Keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Commodity price shocks, Credit, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Money, Prices, Production, Productivity, Real effective exchange rates
- Keywords: Africa, Bayesian VAR, commodity price, Commodity price shocks, Credit, credit shock, Credit Shocks, credit supply shock, Developing Countries, Global, Inflation, inflation targeting, Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies, monetary policy, Productivity, productivity shock, Real effective exchange rates, SA credit, SA default, Sign Restrictions, South Africa statistics, WP