Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom


Aqib Aslam ; Samya Beidas-Strom ; Rudolfs Bems ; Oya Celasun ; Sinem Kılıç Çelik ; Zsoka Koczan

Publication Date:

February 15, 2016

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate


Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.


Working Paper No. 2016/027



Publication Date:

February 15, 2016



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