Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

IMF Working Papers, February 15, 2016

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Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, Zsoka Koczan
• Published: February 15, 2016
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001

Key findings

• Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities.
• Both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output.
• The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17.
• The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

Quantitative impacts and scope

• Estimated annual average reduction in actual output growth during 2015-17: 1 to 2¼ percentage points.
• Relative comovement: actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output with commodity terms of trade.
• Forecast drag on potential output: about one-third of the drag on actual output.

Subject matter and keywords

• Subjects: Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices, Potential output, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity.
• Keywords: commodity boom; Commodity booms; commodity cycle; commodity exporter; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; Commodity prices; commodity sector; commodity terms of trade; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; commodity-exporting economy; East Asia; exchange rate; Global; Natural Resources; Potential Output; price boom; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; WP.

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• Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom
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