Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

Author/Editor:

Wojciech Maliszewski

Publication Date:

June 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/149

Subject:

Financial services Foreign exchange Inflation Output gap Potential output Prices Production Real exchange rates Real interest rates

Frequency:

Monthly

English

Publication Date:

June 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455201327/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010149

Pages:

25

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