Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade : The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis

Author/Editor:

Yevgeniya Korniyenko ; Magali Pinat ; Brian Dew

Publication Date:

February 13, 2017

Electronic Access:

Download PDF. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

Series:

Working Paper No. 17/30

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

February 13, 2017

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475578515/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2017030

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

38

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org