Taking Stock: Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks?
IMF Working Papers, May 4, 2017
Source details
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- Taking Stock: Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Diego A. Cerdeiro, Dmitry Plotnikov
- Published: May 4, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475595918.001
Key findings
- Sample covers 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP.
- On net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in the sample.
- Net effect in GDP-weighted terms was a reduction of 0.17 percentage points of growth.
- Components of the 2015 effect:
- Increases in oil supply boosted growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
- Shocks to oil-specific demand boosted growth by about 0.4 percentage points.
- Weak global demand reduced growth by 0.8 percentage points, more than offsetting the positive components.
Method and sample
- Systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries.
- Coverage: 92.8% of world GDP.
Counterfactual simulations and policy implications
- Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries underscore the importance of diversification in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
- Diversification is emphasized as more important than low levels of openness for protection against adverse global shocks.
Subject keywords (as provided)
- Commodities; Economic theory; Export diversification; International trade; Oil; Oil prices; Oil production; Prices; Production; Supply shocks.
- Keywords: aggregate demand demand shock; economic activity; Export diversification; Global; growth terms; Oil; oil demand; oil demand shock; oil exporter; oil price; oil price decline; oil price shock; oil price slump; Oil prices; Oil production; oil supply; output; price; price of oil; Supply shocks; world demand; world demand shocks; WP.
IMF Working Paper by Diego A. Cerdeiro and Dmitry Plotnikov, May 4, 2017.
Content in this bundle
- Taking Stock: Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks?, WP/17/104, May 2017