A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle

Author/Editor:

Benjamin Carton ; Joannes Mongardini ; Yiqun Li

Publication Date:

January 24, 2018

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.

Series:

Working Paper No. 18/22

English

Publication Date:

January 24, 2018

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484339695/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2018022

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

22

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