Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility
IMF Working Papers, March 25, 2019
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Serhan Cevik
- Published: March 25, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302937.001
Overview
- Paper examines benefits and challenges of implementing a rule-based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study.
- Estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016.
- Applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules.
- Central conclusion: a well-designed fiscal responsibility law with explicit fiscal rules and an independent fiscal council can improve countercyclical policy, long-term debt sustainability, accountability, and transparency.
Empirical findings
- Discretionary fiscal policy in the Philippines has been procyclical.
- The degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years.
- The national government’s non-binding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful but:
- It does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle.
- It does not necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government’s intertemporal budget constraint.
Stochastic simulations and policy implications
- Stochastic simulations are used to identify the optimal set of fiscal rules aimed at:
- Enabling countercyclical fiscal policy.
- Ensuring long-term debt sustainability.
- Simulations support moving from a non-binding deficit ceiling toward explicit, rule-based targets better suited as operational fiscal anchors across the cycle.
Recommended design elements for a fiscal responsibility framework
- Enshrine explicit fiscal rules designed for:
- Countercyclical policy.
- Long-term debt sustainability.
- Adopt operational targets that can guide fiscal policy across the economic cycle rather than rely on a non-binding ceiling.
Institutional and governance recommendations
- Establish an independent fiscal council to:
- Improve accountability.
- Improve transparency.
- Support enforcement and credibility of rule-based fiscal frameworks.
Key statements and scope
- Case study focus: Philippines.
- Structural fiscal stance estimation period: 1980–2016.
- Uses stochastic simulation methodology to evaluate rule designs.
- Subject areas identified: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Fiscal stance, Public debt.
Source: Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility, Serhan Cevik, IMF Working Papers (March 25, 2019), https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/25/anchor-me-the-benefits-and-challenges-of-fiscal-responsibility-46669.
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- Working Paper