Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Author/Editor:

Sebastian Acevedo Mejia ; Claudio Baccianti ; Mico Mrkaic ; Natalija Novta ; Evgenia Pugacheva ; Petia Topalova

Publication Date:

August 16, 2019

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.

Series:

Working Paper No. 19/178

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

August 16, 2019

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513509853/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2019178

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

34

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