IMF Working Papers

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus

Author/Editor:

Pragyan Deb ; Albe Gjonbalaj ; Swarnali A Hannan

Publication Date:

November 8, 2019

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

China’s current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.

Series:

Working Paper No. 19/244

Subject:

Accounting Aging Assets Balance of trade Bank deposits Bilateral trade Bonds Capital Capital account Capital flows Capital inflows Capital outflows Centrally planned economies Commodities Commodity markets Commodity prices Comparative advantage Consumer goods Consumption Credit Credit demand Credit policy Currencies Current account Current account balances Current account deficits Current account surpluses Debt Demand Development Domestic credit Domestic savings Economic sectors Economies Equilibrium (Economics) European Union Exchange rate appreciation Exchange rate depreciation Exchange rate regimes Exchange rates Export growth Export markets Export prices Exports Financial account Financial crises Financial systems Fiscal balance Fiscal policy Fixed exchange rates Flexible exchange rates Foreign currency deposits Foreign direct investment Foreign exchange Foreign exchange reserves Fuels Global imbalances Goods Government expenditures Gross domestic product Household consumption Housing Import prices Import substitution Import tariffs Imports Income accounting Income inequality Industry Inflation Infrastructure Institutional investment Interest rates International investment position International monetary system International reserves International trade Intervention Investment Liabilities Loans Manufacturing Market economies Migrations Monetary policy Oil Oil prices Patterns of trade Pension funds Policy instruments Population Prediction theory Price increases Prices Private consumption Private sector Production Products Profit margins Public investments Purchasing power Reserve assets Reserves Risk management Savings Services Services sector Social policy Social safety nets Stocks Structural fiscal balance Tariffs Taxation Taxes Touris