The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic

IMF Working Papers, August 7, 2020

Source details

Authors: Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk
Date: August 7, 2020
Data used: daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases and on real-time containment measures implemented by countries
Subjects: Aging, COVID-19, Education, Health, Population and demographics
Keywords: Aging; containment measure; containment measures; containment policy; containment stringency index; country characteristic; Covid-19; Global; health sector; pandemics; stringency index; time trend; types containment; WP

Containment measures have been "very effective" in flattening the “pandemic curve”.
There is "significant heterogeneity across countries" in the effectiveness of containment measures.
Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are:
- implemented quickly;
- associated with curtailed de facto mobility;
- applied in countries with lower temperatures;
- applied in countries with lower population density;
- applied in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population;
- applied in countries with stronger health systems.
Easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.