Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana
IMF Working Papers, September 2, 2022
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Philip Abradu-Otoo, Ivy Acquaye, Abubakar Addy, Nana Kwame Akosah, James Attuquaye, Simon Harvey, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Zakari Mumuni, Valeriu Nalban
- Published: September 2, 2022
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400218187.001
Overview
- Title: Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana
- Authors: Philip Abradu-Otoo, Ivy Acquaye, Abubakar Addy, Nana Kwame Akosah, James Attuquaye, Simon Harvey, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Zakari Mumuni, Valeriu Nalban
- Publication date: September 2, 2022
- Series: Working Paper No. 2022/169
- Volume: 2022; Issue: 169; Pages: 39
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400218187.001
- ISBN: 9798400218187
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Model description and structure
- The Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is a New Keynesian semi-structural model that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS).
- Key incorporations:
- Main features of the Ghanaian economy.
- Transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank.
- Aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy.
- Endogenous policy credibility mechanism.
Theoretical and empirical properties
- The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency.
- Out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates the QPM’s empirical robustness.
- Endogenous policy credibility:
- May aggravate policy trade-offs in the model.
- Makes the model more realistic for developing economies.
Role within the Bank of Ghana’s policy framework
- The QPM operates as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization.
- Historical track record:
- Real time policy analysis conducted with the QPM.
- Medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM.
- Establishes the QPM’s critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.
Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Central bank policy rate, Exchange rates, Financial services, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Output gap, Prices, Production
- Keywords: Central bank policy rate, D. monetary policy credibility channel, Exchange rates, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Ghana, Global, impulse response, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary Policy, out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, Output gap, policy analysis, projection model, Quarterly Projection Model, Transmission Mechanism
IMF Working Paper — "Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana", Working Paper No. 2022/169 (September 2, 2022).
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- Working Paper