Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
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Summary:
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2024/030
Subject:
Business cycles Consumption Economic growth External debt Income National accounts Public debt
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
February 16, 2024
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400267208/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2024030
Format:
Paper
Pages:
43
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