Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown to the Singapore Economy: Singapore
August 13, 2024
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This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects. Utilizing multi-region input-output tables, empirical estimates, and the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, it identifies significant sectoral and aggregate impacts, particularly in electrical and machinery manufacturing, petrochemicals, and financial services. The analysis underscores the vulnerability of Singapore's economy to shifts in Chinese demand and productivity, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring and strategic adaptation to mitigate potential risks associated with China's slowdown.
Subject: Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Global value chains, Globalization, International trade, Production, Productivity, Spillovers
Keywords: ASEAN, Asia and Pacific, China, China growth shock, Exports, General equilibrium model, Global, Global value chains, growth shock, growth slowdown, Growth Spillovers, IMF China growth projection, Input-output table, Local projections, Productivity, Singapore economy, Southeast Asia, Spillovers
Pages:
21
Volume:
2024
DOI:
Issue:
041
Series:
Selected Issues Paper No. 2024/041
Stock No:
SIPEA2024041
ISBN:
9798400286230
ISSN:
2958-7875
