Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals

Staff Climate Notes, October 31, 2021

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Canonical URL: Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions.
The world is currently not yet on track; there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy.
Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC.
Additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed.
The Note emphasizes that comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key, given trade-offs among instruments.

Presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps.
Shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity.
Highlights scale of ambition and policy effort required by 2030 to align with 1.5 to 2oC goals.

Provides country-level analyses of:
- emissions impacts,
- fiscal impacts,
- economic impacts,
- distributional impacts of carbon pricing.
Examines trade-offs between carbon pricing and other instruments (feebates and others implied by keywords).

Urgent strengthening of mitigation ambition and policy is required globally.
Implementation of additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 is needed to close the policy gap.
Comprehensive mitigation strategies that combine instruments and address distributional and fiscal consequences are emphasized.

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