Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action

Staff Climate Notes, October 10, 2024

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Canonical URL: Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action

Urgent action to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is needed now.
Early next year, all countries will set new emissions targets for 2035 while revising their 2030 targets.
Global GHGs must be cut by 25 and 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.
Current targets would only cut emissions by 12 percent.
Global ambition therefore needs to be doubled to quadrupled to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
Further delay will lead to an “emissions cliff edge,” implying implausible cuts in GHGs and putting 1.5°C beyond reach.

Aggregate mitigation implied by current national targets: cut global GHGs by 12 percent below 2019 levels by 2030.
Required mitigation to meet temperature goals:
- 25 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit warming to 2°C.
- 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Delay in strengthening targets increases the risk of an “emissions cliff edge,” leading to implausibly steep future cuts.

Countries should substantially increase near-term ambition for 2030 and set stronger 2035 targets to align with Paris temperature goals.
Equitable alignment of country targets with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals should be illustrated and operationalized.
Doubling to quadrupling of current global ambition is required; policy frameworks should reflect this scale-up.

Provide clear modelling guidance to set emissions targets and quantify climate mitigation policy impacts.
Models should be used to:
- Translate temperature goals into emissions pathways (including the 25 percent and 50 percent 2030 benchmarks relative to 2019).
- Assess feasibility and distributional implications of rapid emissions reductions to avoid an “emissions cliff edge.”
- Inform equitable burden-sharing approaches for aligning national targets with global temperature goals.

Authors: Simon Black, Ian W.H. Parry, Karlygash Zhunussova
Date: October 10, 2024
Series: Staff Climate Note No 2024/006
Pages: 43
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289644.066
ISBN: 9798400289644
ISSN: 2789-0600
Subjects/Keywords: Climate change; Environment; Greenhouse gas emissions; carbon pricing; cliff edge; Climate finance; climate investment; climate mitigation; Paris Agreement

Source: "Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action", Staff Climate Notes 2024, 006 (2024).

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