Romain Alexandre Duval

Last Updated: October 28, 2020

Romain Duval

Romain Duval is an Assistant Director in the IMF Research Department, where he also leads the agenda on structural reforms. Previously he was the Division Chief for Regional Studies of the Asia Pacific Department, where he was the editor of the Regional Economic Outlook for the region and in charge of the research on regional issues. Prior to joining the Fund he was the Division Chief for Structural Surveillance at the OECD Economics Department, where he was the editor of the OECD flagship publication Going for Growth and in this role also carried out and supervised policy and research projects. He has published over 30 articles in leading academic and policy-oriented journals on a wide range of topics including the economics and political economy of labor and product market regulations, growth, productivity, trade, monetary policy, equilibrium real exchange rates, and climate change economics. Over the years his research has also been profiled regularly in leading global newspapers and magazines such as The Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg.

Email: RDUVAL@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pdu64.html

Fluent In: French.

Education:

PhD Economics, Universite Paris-I-Pantheon-Sorbonne


Previous Experience:

Advisor, Research Department, IMF; Division Chief for Regional Studies, Asia Pacific Department, IMF; Division Chief for Structural Surveillance and various economist positions, OECD Economics Department; US Desk Economist, French Treasury (Forecasting Directorate)


Field of Expertise:

Open Economy Macroeconomics

Labor Economics

International Trade

Energy and Environmental Economics

Development Economics

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

"Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms?", October 2019 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3

"The Rise of Corporate Market Power and its Macroeconomic Effects", April 2019 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2

"Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Evidence and Policy Options" (2019). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 19/04 (with P. Loungani)

“Strengthening the Euro Area: The Role of National Structural Reforms” (2019), IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 19/05 (with S. Aiyar, J. Bluedorn, D. Furceri, D. Garcia-Macia, D. Malacrino, H. Qu, J. Siminitz, J. Yi and A. Zdzienicka).

"Gove with the Headwinds: Global Productivity" (2017). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 17/04 (with G. Adler, S. Kilic Celik, D. Furceri, K. Koloskova and M. Poplawski Ribeiro)

"Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Fiscal Costs, Gains and Support" (2017). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 17/03 (with A. Banerji, V. Crispolti, E. Dabla-Norris, D. Furceri, C. Ebeke, T. Komatsuzaki and T. Poghosyan)

"Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space is Constrained; A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy" (2016). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 16/09 (with V. Gaspar, M. Obstfeld, R. Sahay, D. Laxton, D. Botman, K. Clinton, I. Kotaro, Z. Jakab, L. Jaramillo, C. Lonkeng Ngouana, T. Mancini Griffoli, J. Mongardini, S. Mursula, E. Nier, Y. Ustyugova, H. Wang and O. Wuensch)

"Time for a Supply-Side Boost? The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies", April 2016 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3

iMFdirect Blog Posts

“How to Reignite Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies”, 2019 (with D. Furceri)

“Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits”, 2019 (with S. Aiyar and J. Bluedorn)

“Designing Labor Policies to Foster Inclusive Growth in Emerging Markets”, 2019 (with P. Loungani)

"How to Keep Corporate Market Power in Check", 2019 (with F. Diez)

“Tight Monetary Policy is not the Answer to Weak Productivity Growth” (2018), VoxEU Blog (with M. Obstfeld)

"How Lowering Trade Barriers Can Revive Global Productivity and Growth", 2016 (with E. Dabla Norris)

"When You Move, I Move: Increasing Synchronization Among Asia’s Economies", 2014

F&D articles

"Stuck in a Rut", Finance and Development, March 2017 (with G. Adler)

Other Published Materials

“Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel” (2020), IMF Working Paper No. 20/25 (with J. Ahn and C. Sever)

"Employment Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies" (2019). IMF Working Paper No. 18/186 (with G. Ciminelli and D. Furceri)

"A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies" (2018). IMF Working Paper No. 18/19 (with D. Furceri, J. Jalles, B. Hu and H. Nguyen)

"Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/277 (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

"Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/129 (with G.H. Hong and Y. Timmer).

"Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/215 (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi) Also available as NBER and CEPR WKPs

"Time for a Supply Boost? The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies", IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2016

“Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Industry-Level Evidence” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/114 (with R. Bouis and J. Eugster)

"Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/171 (with B. Adhikari, B. Hu and P. Loungani)

“Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/77 (with J. Ahn, E. Dabla-Norris, B. Hu and L. Njie)

“Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia” (2014), IMF Working Paper, No. 14/52 (with K. Cheng, K-H. Oh, R. Saraf and L. Zhang)

“Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-income Trap” (2013), IMF Working Paper, No. 13/71 (with S. Aiyar, D. Puy, W. Yiqun and L. Zhang)

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies" (2020), The Review of Economics and Statistics (with G. Ciminelli and D. Furceri)

"Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown" (2020), Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 33, No. 2, editor's choice (with G.H. Hong and Y. Timmer)

"Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound" (2020), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

"Robust Political Economy Correlates of Major Product and Labor Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Evidence from BAMLE for Logit Models" (2020), Journal of Applied Econometrics (with D. Furceri and J. Miethe)

“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” (2015), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 99, March (with N. Li, D. Seneviratne and R. Saraf)

“How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best” (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 7 (with L. Vogel)

"Fiscal Multipliers and Job Protection Regulation" (2020), European Economic Review (with M. Cacciatore, D. Furceri and A. Zdzienicka)

“Labor and Product Market Reforms and External Imbalances: Evidence from Advanced Economies” (2020), Journal of International Money and Finance (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

"Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: A Review of Evidence and IMF Policy Advice" (2020), Comparative Economic Studies (with P. Loungani)

"Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times" (2020), Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 72, No. 2 (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

“How Fast Does Product Market Reform Pay Off? New Evidence from Non-Manufacturing Industry Deregulation in Advanced Economies” (2020), Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 48, No. 1 (with R. Bouis and J. Eugster)

"Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization" (2019), Review of International Economics, Vol. 27, No. 1 (with J. Ahn, E. Dabla-Norris, B. Hu and L. Njie)

"The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies" (2018), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 66, No. 1 (with D. Furceri)

"Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method" (2018), Open Economies Review, Vol. 29, No. 4 (with B. Adhikari, B. Hu and P. Loungani)

"Growth Slowdowns and the Middle Income Trap" (2018), Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 48, No. C (with S. Aiyar, D. Puy, Y. Wu and L. Zhang)

"Trading with China: Productivity Gains, Job Losses" (2017), Economics Letters, Vol. 160, No. C, November (with J. Ahn)

“Market Reforms in Times of Imbalance” (2016), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 72, November (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

“Short-term Pain for Long-term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies” (2016), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 68, November (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

“How Quickly Does Structural Reform Pay Off? An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Effects of Unemployment Benefit Reform” (2012), IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2012, 1:12 (with R. Bouis, O. Causa and L. Demmou)

"A Long-Run Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy" (2010), Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 32 (with C. de la Maisonneuve)

“Unemployment, Institutions and Reform Complementarities: Reassessing the Aggregate Evidence for OECD Countries” (2009), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 25, No. 1 (with A. Bassanini)

“The Determinants of Unemployment Across OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions” (2006), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, No. 42 (with A. Bassanini)

“Is There a Case for Carbon-based Border Tax Adjustment? An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis” (2012), Applied Economics, Vol. 45, No. 16 (with J-M. Burniaux and J. Chateau)

“Towards Global Carbon Pricing: Direct and Indirect Linking of Carbon Markets” (2013), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2013 (with R. Dellink, S. Jamet and J. Chateau)

"What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D " (2011), Energy Economics, Vol. 33, No. 6 (with V. Bosetti, C. Carraro and M. Tavoni)

“Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policy in Fostering Structural Reforms? Panel Evidence from OECD Countries over the Past Two Decades” (2008), European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 24, No. 2

“What Do We Know About Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: PPPs vs. Macroeconomic Approaches” (2002), Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 41, No. 4

"Economic Resilience to Shocks: The Role of Structural Policies" (2008), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2008, No. 1 (with L. Vogel)

“Retirement Behaviour in OECD Countries: Impact of Old-Age Pension Schemes and Other Social Transfer Programmes” (2003), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2003, No. 2

“Le rôle de l’idéologie et des croyances dans l’économie politique” (2007), Revue d’Économie Politique, Vol. 117, No. 4

"Quel Credit Accorder à la "Nouvelle Economie" Americaine?" (2000), Economie et Statistique, Vol. 339, No. 1

“Taux de change réels, prix relatif des biens non échangeables et PPA sur le secteur exposé à la concurrence internationale” (2001), Économie Internationale, la revue du CEPII, No. 85, 1er trimestre

Other Published Materials

"Tight Monetary Policy is not the Answer to Weak Productivity Growth" (2018). Vox EU blog, 10 January 2018 (with M. Obstfeld)

Romain Duval

Romain Duval is an Assistant Director in the IMF Research Department, where he also leads the agenda on structural reforms. Previously he was the Division Chief for Regional Studies of the Asia Pacific Department, where he was the editor of the Regional Economic Outlook for the region and in charge of the research on regional issues. Prior to joining the Fund he was the Division Chief for Structural Surveillance at the OECD Economics Department, where he was the editor of the OECD flagship publication Going for Growth and in this role also carried out and supervised policy and research projects. He has published over 30 articles in leading academic and policy-oriented journals on a wide range of topics including the economics and political economy of labor and product market regulations, growth, productivity, trade, monetary policy, equilibrium real exchange rates, and climate change economics. Over the years his research has also been profiled regularly in leading global newspapers and magazines such as The Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg.

Email: RDUVAL@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pdu64.html

Fluent In: French.

Education:

PhD Economics, Universite Paris-I-Pantheon-Sorbonne


Previous Experience:

Advisor, Research Department, IMF; Division Chief for Regional Studies, Asia Pacific Department, IMF; Division Chief for Structural Surveillance and various economist positions, OECD Economics Department; US Desk Economist, French Treasury (Forecasting Directorate)


Field of Expertise:

Open Economy Macroeconomics

Labor Economics

International Trade

Energy and Environmental Economics

Development Economics

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

"Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms?", October 2019 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3

"The Rise of Corporate Market Power and its Macroeconomic Effects", April 2019 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2

"Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Evidence and Policy Options" (2019). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 19/04 (with P. Loungani)

“Strengthening the Euro Area: The Role of National Structural Reforms” (2019), IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 19/05 (with S. Aiyar, J. Bluedorn, D. Furceri, D. Garcia-Macia, D. Malacrino, H. Qu, J. Siminitz, J. Yi and A. Zdzienicka).

"Gove with the Headwinds: Global Productivity" (2017). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 17/04 (with G. Adler, S. Kilic Celik, D. Furceri, K. Koloskova and M. Poplawski Ribeiro)

"Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Fiscal Costs, Gains and Support" (2017). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 17/03 (with A. Banerji, V. Crispolti, E. Dabla-Norris, D. Furceri, C. Ebeke, T. Komatsuzaki and T. Poghosyan)

"Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space is Constrained; A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy" (2016). IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 16/09 (with V. Gaspar, M. Obstfeld, R. Sahay, D. Laxton, D. Botman, K. Clinton, I. Kotaro, Z. Jakab, L. Jaramillo, C. Lonkeng Ngouana, T. Mancini Griffoli, J. Mongardini, S. Mursula, E. Nier, Y. Ustyugova, H. Wang and O. Wuensch)

"Time for a Supply-Side Boost? The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies", April 2016 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3

iMFdirect Blog Posts

“How to Reignite Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies”, 2019 (with D. Furceri)

“Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits”, 2019 (with S. Aiyar and J. Bluedorn)

“Designing Labor Policies to Foster Inclusive Growth in Emerging Markets”, 2019 (with P. Loungani)

"How to Keep Corporate Market Power in Check", 2019 (with F. Diez)

“Tight Monetary Policy is not the Answer to Weak Productivity Growth” (2018), VoxEU Blog (with M. Obstfeld)

"How Lowering Trade Barriers Can Revive Global Productivity and Growth", 2016 (with E. Dabla Norris)

"When You Move, I Move: Increasing Synchronization Among Asia’s Economies", 2014

F&D articles

"Stuck in a Rut", Finance and Development, March 2017 (with G. Adler)

Other Published Materials

“Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel” (2020), IMF Working Paper No. 20/25 (with J. Ahn and C. Sever)

"Employment Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies" (2019). IMF Working Paper No. 18/186 (with G. Ciminelli and D. Furceri)

"A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies" (2018). IMF Working Paper No. 18/19 (with D. Furceri, J. Jalles, B. Hu and H. Nguyen)

"Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/277 (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

"Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/129 (with G.H. Hong and Y. Timmer).

"Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound" (2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/215 (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi) Also available as NBER and CEPR WKPs

"Time for a Supply Boost? The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies", IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2016

“Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Industry-Level Evidence” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/114 (with R. Bouis and J. Eugster)

"Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/171 (with B. Adhikari, B. Hu and P. Loungani)

“Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization” (2016), IMF Working Paper, No. 16/77 (with J. Ahn, E. Dabla-Norris, B. Hu and L. Njie)

“Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia” (2014), IMF Working Paper, No. 14/52 (with K. Cheng, K-H. Oh, R. Saraf and L. Zhang)

“Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-income Trap” (2013), IMF Working Paper, No. 13/71 (with S. Aiyar, D. Puy, W. Yiqun and L. Zhang)

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies" (2020), The Review of Economics and Statistics (with G. Ciminelli and D. Furceri)

"Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown" (2020), Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 33, No. 2, editor's choice (with G.H. Hong and Y. Timmer)

"Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound" (2020), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

"Robust Political Economy Correlates of Major Product and Labor Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Evidence from BAMLE for Logit Models" (2020), Journal of Applied Econometrics (with D. Furceri and J. Miethe)

“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” (2015), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 99, March (with N. Li, D. Seneviratne and R. Saraf)

“How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best” (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 7 (with L. Vogel)

"Fiscal Multipliers and Job Protection Regulation" (2020), European Economic Review (with M. Cacciatore, D. Furceri and A. Zdzienicka)

“Labor and Product Market Reforms and External Imbalances: Evidence from Advanced Economies” (2020), Journal of International Money and Finance (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

"Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: A Review of Evidence and IMF Policy Advice" (2020), Comparative Economic Studies (with P. Loungani)

"Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times" (2020), Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 72, No. 2 (with D. Furceri and J. Jalles)

“How Fast Does Product Market Reform Pay Off? New Evidence from Non-Manufacturing Industry Deregulation in Advanced Economies” (2020), Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 48, No. 1 (with R. Bouis and J. Eugster)

"Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization" (2019), Review of International Economics, Vol. 27, No. 1 (with J. Ahn, E. Dabla-Norris, B. Hu and L. Njie)

"The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies" (2018), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 66, No. 1 (with D. Furceri)

"Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method" (2018), Open Economies Review, Vol. 29, No. 4 (with B. Adhikari, B. Hu and P. Loungani)

"Growth Slowdowns and the Middle Income Trap" (2018), Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 48, No. C (with S. Aiyar, D. Puy, Y. Wu and L. Zhang)

"Trading with China: Productivity Gains, Job Losses" (2017), Economics Letters, Vol. 160, No. C, November (with J. Ahn)

“Market Reforms in Times of Imbalance” (2016), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 72, November (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

“Short-term Pain for Long-term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies” (2016), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 68, November (with M. Cacciatore, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi)

“How Quickly Does Structural Reform Pay Off? An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Effects of Unemployment Benefit Reform” (2012), IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2012, 1:12 (with R. Bouis, O. Causa and L. Demmou)

"A Long-Run Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy" (2010), Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 32 (with C. de la Maisonneuve)

“Unemployment, Institutions and Reform Complementarities: Reassessing the Aggregate Evidence for OECD Countries” (2009), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 25, No. 1 (with A. Bassanini)

“The Determinants of Unemployment Across OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions” (2006), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, No. 42 (with A. Bassanini)

“Is There a Case for Carbon-based Border Tax Adjustment? An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis” (2012), Applied Economics, Vol. 45, No. 16 (with J-M. Burniaux and J. Chateau)

“Towards Global Carbon Pricing: Direct and Indirect Linking of Carbon Markets” (2013), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2013 (with R. Dellink, S. Jamet and J. Chateau)

"What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D " (2011), Energy Economics, Vol. 33, No. 6 (with V. Bosetti, C. Carraro and M. Tavoni)

“Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policy in Fostering Structural Reforms? Panel Evidence from OECD Countries over the Past Two Decades” (2008), European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 24, No. 2

“What Do We Know About Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: PPPs vs. Macroeconomic Approaches” (2002), Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 41, No. 4

"Economic Resilience to Shocks: The Role of Structural Policies" (2008), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2008, No. 1 (with L. Vogel)

“Retirement Behaviour in OECD Countries: Impact of Old-Age Pension Schemes and Other Social Transfer Programmes” (2003), OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2003, No. 2

“Le rôle de l’idéologie et des croyances dans l’économie politique” (2007), Revue d’Économie Politique, Vol. 117, No. 4

"Quel Credit Accorder à la "Nouvelle Economie" Americaine?" (2000), Economie et Statistique, Vol. 339, No. 1

“Taux de change réels, prix relatif des biens non échangeables et PPA sur le secteur exposé à la concurrence internationale” (2001), Économie Internationale, la revue du CEPII, No. 85, 1er trimestre

Other Published Materials

"Tight Monetary Policy is not the Answer to Weak Productivity Growth" (2018). Vox EU blog, 10 January 2018 (with M. Obstfeld)