Gaston Gelos

Last Updated: January 19, 2021

Gaston Gelos

Gaston Gelos is Assistant Director and Chief of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Previously, he headed the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, where he was responsible for the analytical chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. Prior to that, he held positions as an Advisor at the IMF Institute, as a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, and as the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He also worked as an economist in the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University. He has worked at the IMF since 1998.

Email: GGELOS@imf.org

Fluent In: French, German, Spanish.

Education:

1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University

1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn

1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley


Previous Experience:

Division Chief, Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, 2013-2017

Advisor, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund, 2011-2013

Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011

Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010

Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007

Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments

Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997

Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995

Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94


Referee Activities:

Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico


Professional Activities:

Research Fellow, CEPR


Country work or Mission Assignment:

Mission Chief, Japan FSAP (2016-17)

Mission Chief, Nicaragua, 2010-11

Mission Chief, Uruguay, 2008-10

Resident Representative to Argentina and Uruguay, 2007-2010

Resident Representative to Uruguay, 2005-2007

Desk economist, Brazil team, 2003-2005

Desk Economist, Bulgaria team, 1999-2000


Seminar Presentation:

Frequent speaker at academic conferences and international policy fora.


Teaching:

Taught multiple courses on macroeconomic topics for government officials, 2011-13


Field of Expertise:

Banking

Macro-Financial Issues

Monetary Policy

International Finance

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Negative Interest Rates : Taking Stock of the Experience So Far , Departmental Paper No. 2021/003 , March 03, 2021

Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework , Working Paper No. 20/123 , July 07, 2020

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 20/35 , February 21, 2020

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows , Working Paper No. 19/279 , December 20, 2019

Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database , Working Paper No. 19/66 , March 22, 2019

Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission? , Working Paper No. 19/11 , January 15, 2019

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? , Working Paper No. 18/15 , January 24, 2018

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 15/277 , December 28, 2015

Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America , March 27, 2014

Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks , Working Paper No. 13/156 , July 03, 2013

Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks : How and Why Do Countries Differ? , Working Paper No. 12/225 , September 01, 2012

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey , Working Paper No. 11/92 , April 01, 2011

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact , Working Paper No. 09/280 , December 01, 2009

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization: The Case of Uruguay , Occasional Paper No. 263 , July 25, 2008

Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle , Working Paper No. 06/282 , December 01, 2006

Banking Spreads in Latin America , Working Paper No. 06/44 , February 01, 2006

What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis , Working Paper No. 05/109 , June 01, 2005

Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access? , Working Paper No. 04/221 , November 01, 2004

When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion , Working Paper No. 04/131 , July 01, 2004

Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations? , Working Paper No. 04/111 , June 01, 2004

Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey? , Working Paper No. 03/49 , March 01, 2003

Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems , Working Paper No. 02/186 , November 01, 2002

Transparency and International Investor Behavior , Working Paper No. 02/174 , October 01, 2002

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds , Working Paper No. 01/111 , August 01, 2001

A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds , Working Paper No. 00/198 , December 01, 2000

Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies , Working Paper No. 00/71 , March 01, 2000

Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market - The Case of Mexico in 1994/95 , Working Paper No. 00/28 , January 01, 2000

Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different? Evidence from the Colombian and Mexican Manufacturing Sectors , Working Paper No. 99/59 , April 01, 1999

Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral - Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector , Working Paper No. 99/25 , March 01, 1999

IMF Country Reports

“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103

"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46

“Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with Jorge Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 06/427

“Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?,” (with Tarhan Feyzioðlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54

"Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with Angana Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54

iMFdirect Blog Posts

The Evidence Is in on Negative Interest Rate Policies (with L. Brandao-Marques)

Aging Japan Puts a Strain on the Financial System (with S. Muñoz), August 2017

How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry (with J. Surti), April 2017

"With Global Financial Markets, How Much Control Do Countries Have Over Economic Policies?" (with S. Elekdag), April 2017

"The Growth of Shadow Banking," (with N. Valckx), October 2014

F&D articles

"Transparency Matters," (with L. Brandao-Marques and N. Melgar), Finance & Development, December 2013, Vol. 50 (4)

"When Commodity Prices Surge," (with Y. Ustyugova), Finance & Development, 2012, Vol. 49(4)

"Differential Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J. Walsh), Finance & Development, 2010, Vol. 47(1)

“Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with E. Borensztein), Finance & Development, 2001, Vol. 38(4)

Other Published Materials

COVID-19 Shock and Multilateral Aspects of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Capital Flow Management Policies, (with L. Brandao-Marquez, Chris Erceg, Lucyna Gornicka, Annamaria Kokenyne, and Gurnain Pasricha), December 2020

“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008

“Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Journal of Banking and Finance, November 2018

"Inflation responses to commodity price shocks - how and why do countries differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2017

"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.P. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012

"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011

“Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with Ricardo Adrogué and Martin Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, September 2010

"Banking Spreads in Latin America," Economic Inquiry, October 2009

“What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis” (with Martín Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009

“When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with Fernando Broner and Carmen Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, June 2006

“Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with Shang-Jin Wei), Journal of Finance, December 2005

“Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, November 2004

“Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?,” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004

“Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with Jorge Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004

“A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003

“Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times”, (with Eduardo Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003

“Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence From Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003

“Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002

“Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with Alejandro Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002

“Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with Alberto Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001

“Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with Alberto Isgut), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2001

“Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with Ratna Sahay), 2001, Economics of Transition, Vol. 1, March 2001

“La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999

Other Published Materials

"COVID-19 in emerging markets: Escaping the monetary policy procyclicality trap," (with U. Rawat and H. Ye), VoxEU August 2020

“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009

"International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion," in: G. Caprio, Jr. (ed.): "Handbooks in Financial Globalization," Elsevier, 2012

“Leaning against the wind: An empirical cost-benefit analysis” (with. L. Brandao-Marques, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, July 2020

“Unveiling the effects of macroprudential policies: The IMF’s new iMaPP database” (with A. Alter, H. Kang, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, April 2019

"Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2012

"Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?,” (with Ratna Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001

“Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows” (with L. Gornicka, R. Koepke, R. Sahay, and S. Sgherri), VoxEu, February 2020

"Household indebtedness did not weaken US monetary transmission post-crisis" (with F. Grinberg, S. Khan, T. Mancini-Griffoli, M. Narita, U. Rawat), VoxEu, February 2019

“The global crisis – why were some countries hit harder?” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), VoxEu, March 2010

“Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” 2004, Springer-Verlag

"The rise in nonbank finance and monetary policy transmission" (with L. Brandao), VoxEu, December 2017

Corporate governance and financial stability in emerging markets, VoxEu (with S. Elekdag), November 2016

“Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian Economy,” World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 5/1995

The growing importance of financial spillovers from emerging markets (with J. Surti), August 2016

The insurance sector and systemic risk (with N. Valckx), VoxEu, July 2016

Resilience of market liquidity (with L. Brandao Marques), VoxEu, January 2016

"Asset Management and Financial Stability," (with H. Oura), VoxEu, July 2015

"Global Banks Turning More Local," (with F. Lambert), VoxEu, May 2015

“New-Breed Global Investors and Emerging-Market Financial Stability,” (with H. Oura), VoxEu, www.voxeu.com, August 2014

“Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks” (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2014

Gaston Gelos

Gaston Gelos is Assistant Director and Chief of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Previously, he headed the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, where he was responsible for the analytical chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. Prior to that, he held positions as an Advisor at the IMF Institute, as a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, and as the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He also worked as an economist in the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University. He has worked at the IMF since 1998.

Email: GGELOS@imf.org

Fluent In: French, German, Spanish.

Education:

1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University

1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn

1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley


Previous Experience:

Division Chief, Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, 2013-2017

Advisor, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund, 2011-2013

Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011

Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010

Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007

Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments

Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997

Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995

Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94


Referee Activities:

Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico


Professional Activities:

Research Fellow, CEPR


Country work or Mission Assignment:

Mission Chief, Japan FSAP (2016-17)

Mission Chief, Nicaragua, 2010-11

Mission Chief, Uruguay, 2008-10

Resident Representative to Argentina and Uruguay, 2007-2010

Resident Representative to Uruguay, 2005-2007

Desk economist, Brazil team, 2003-2005

Desk Economist, Bulgaria team, 1999-2000


Seminar Presentation:

Frequent speaker at academic conferences and international policy fora.


Teaching:

Taught multiple courses on macroeconomic topics for government officials, 2011-13


Field of Expertise:

Banking

Macro-Financial Issues

Monetary Policy

International Finance

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Negative Interest Rates : Taking Stock of the Experience So Far , Departmental Paper No. 2021/003 , March 03, 2021

Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework , Working Paper No. 20/123 , July 07, 2020

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 20/35 , February 21, 2020

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows , Working Paper No. 19/279 , December 20, 2019

Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database , Working Paper No. 19/66 , March 22, 2019

Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission? , Working Paper No. 19/11 , January 15, 2019

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? , Working Paper No. 18/15 , January 24, 2018

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 15/277 , December 28, 2015

Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America , March 27, 2014

Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks , Working Paper No. 13/156 , July 03, 2013

Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks : How and Why Do Countries Differ? , Working Paper No. 12/225 , September 01, 2012

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey , Working Paper No. 11/92 , April 01, 2011

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact , Working Paper No. 09/280 , December 01, 2009

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization: The Case of Uruguay , Occasional Paper No. 263 , July 25, 2008

Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle , Working Paper No. 06/282 , December 01, 2006

Banking Spreads in Latin America , Working Paper No. 06/44 , February 01, 2006

What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis , Working Paper No. 05/109 , June 01, 2005

Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access? , Working Paper No. 04/221 , November 01, 2004

When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion , Working Paper No. 04/131 , July 01, 2004

Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations? , Working Paper No. 04/111 , June 01, 2004

Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey? , Working Paper No. 03/49 , March 01, 2003

Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems , Working Paper No. 02/186 , November 01, 2002

Transparency and International Investor Behavior , Working Paper No. 02/174 , October 01, 2002

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds , Working Paper No. 01/111 , August 01, 2001

A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds , Working Paper No. 00/198 , December 01, 2000

Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies , Working Paper No. 00/71 , March 01, 2000

Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market - The Case of Mexico in 1994/95 , Working Paper No. 00/28 , January 01, 2000

Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different? Evidence from the Colombian and Mexican Manufacturing Sectors , Working Paper No. 99/59 , April 01, 1999

Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral - Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector , Working Paper No. 99/25 , March 01, 1999

IMF Country Reports

“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103

"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46

“Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with Jorge Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 06/427

“Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?,” (with Tarhan Feyzioðlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54

"Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with Angana Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54

iMFdirect Blog Posts

The Evidence Is in on Negative Interest Rate Policies (with L. Brandao-Marques)

Aging Japan Puts a Strain on the Financial System (with S. Muñoz), August 2017

How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry (with J. Surti), April 2017

"With Global Financial Markets, How Much Control Do Countries Have Over Economic Policies?" (with S. Elekdag), April 2017

"The Growth of Shadow Banking," (with N. Valckx), October 2014

F&D articles

"Transparency Matters," (with L. Brandao-Marques and N. Melgar), Finance & Development, December 2013, Vol. 50 (4)

"When Commodity Prices Surge," (with Y. Ustyugova), Finance & Development, 2012, Vol. 49(4)

"Differential Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J. Walsh), Finance & Development, 2010, Vol. 47(1)

“Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with E. Borensztein), Finance & Development, 2001, Vol. 38(4)

Other Published Materials

COVID-19 Shock and Multilateral Aspects of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Capital Flow Management Policies, (with L. Brandao-Marquez, Chris Erceg, Lucyna Gornicka, Annamaria Kokenyne, and Gurnain Pasricha), December 2020

“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008

“Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Journal of Banking and Finance, November 2018

"Inflation responses to commodity price shocks - how and why do countries differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2017

"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.P. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012

"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011

“Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with Ricardo Adrogué and Martin Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, September 2010

"Banking Spreads in Latin America," Economic Inquiry, October 2009

“What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis” (with Martín Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009

“When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with Fernando Broner and Carmen Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, June 2006

“Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with Shang-Jin Wei), Journal of Finance, December 2005

“Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, November 2004

“Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?,” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004

“Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with Jorge Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004

“A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003

“Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times”, (with Eduardo Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003

“Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence From Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003

“Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002

“Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with Alejandro Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002

“Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with Alberto Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001

“Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with Alberto Isgut), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2001

“Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with Ratna Sahay), 2001, Economics of Transition, Vol. 1, March 2001

“La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999

Other Published Materials

"COVID-19 in emerging markets: Escaping the monetary policy procyclicality trap," (with U. Rawat and H. Ye), VoxEU August 2020

“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009

"International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion," in: G. Caprio, Jr. (ed.): "Handbooks in Financial Globalization," Elsevier, 2012

“Leaning against the wind: An empirical cost-benefit analysis” (with. L. Brandao-Marques, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, July 2020

“Unveiling the effects of macroprudential policies: The IMF’s new iMaPP database” (with A. Alter, H. Kang, M. Narita, and E. Nier), VoxEu, April 2019

"Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2012

"Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?,” (with Ratna Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001

“Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows” (with L. Gornicka, R. Koepke, R. Sahay, and S. Sgherri), VoxEu, February 2020

"Household indebtedness did not weaken US monetary transmission post-crisis" (with F. Grinberg, S. Khan, T. Mancini-Griffoli, M. Narita, U. Rawat), VoxEu, February 2019

“The global crisis – why were some countries hit harder?” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), VoxEu, March 2010

“Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” 2004, Springer-Verlag

"The rise in nonbank finance and monetary policy transmission" (with L. Brandao), VoxEu, December 2017

Corporate governance and financial stability in emerging markets, VoxEu (with S. Elekdag), November 2016

“Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian Economy,” World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 5/1995

The growing importance of financial spillovers from emerging markets (with J. Surti), August 2016

The insurance sector and systemic risk (with N. Valckx), VoxEu, July 2016

Resilience of market liquidity (with L. Brandao Marques), VoxEu, January 2016

"Asset Management and Financial Stability," (with H. Oura), VoxEu, July 2015

"Global Banks Turning More Local," (with F. Lambert), VoxEu, May 2015

“New-Breed Global Investors and Emerging-Market Financial Stability,” (with H. Oura), VoxEu, www.voxeu.com, August 2014

“Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks” (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2014