Daniel Leigh

Last Updated: January 22, 2014

Daniel Leigh

Daniel Leigh is Assistant to the Director at the Research Department of the IMF. He has served on the IMF teams of Colombia, Gabon, Hungary, Lithuania, and Peru. His research interests are in international macroeconomics, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University, and a M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics. He has publications in the Journal of the European Economic Association, the American Economic Review, the IMF Economic Review, the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economic Policy, the Journal of Macroeconomics, Finance and Development, and has written several chapters of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

Email: DLEIGH@imf.org

Fluent In: Czech, French, Spanish.

Education:

Ph.D., Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999-2004

M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1998-1999

B.A. (First Class Honours), Economics, University of Manchester, 1994-1998


Previous Experience:

International Monetary Fund, Research Department: Senior Economist (World Economic Studies division), 2009-2012.

International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department: Economist (Fiscal Policy division), 2006-2009; Economist Program (Fiscal Policy division), 2005-2006.

International Monetary Fund, European Department: Economist Program (Hungary and Lithuania country assignments), 2004-2005.

International Monetary Fund. European Department: Summer Intern (2002). Estimated effect of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in Turkey and developed inflation forecasting model.

Inter-American Development Bank. Research Department: Summer Intern (2001). Investigated effect of currency union on trade with a focus on EMU.

IMF Books and Working Papers:

U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , Working Paper No. 19/120 , May 31, 2019

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts , Working Paper No. 19/114 , May 23, 2019

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters , Working Paper No. 18/163 , July 13, 2018

Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications , Working Paper No. 18/137 , June 15, 2018

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America , Working Paper No. 18/142 , June 13, 2018

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 18/94 , April 26, 2018

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013

Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers , Working Paper No. 13/1 , January 03, 2013

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/158 , July 01, 2011

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 11/128 , June 01, 2011

To Starve or not to Starve the Beast? , Working Paper No. 10/199 , September 01, 2010

What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 09/245 , November 01, 2009

Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan , Working Paper No. 09/232 , October 01, 2009

Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence from the G7 , Working Paper No. 09/50 , March 01, 2009

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia , Working Paper No. 09/59 , March 01, 2009

The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective , Working Paper No. 09/43 , March 01, 2009

Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy , Working Paper No. 08/69 , March 01, 2008

Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway , Working Paper No. 07/241 , October 01, 2007

Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries , Working Paper No. 07/187 , July 01, 2007

Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences , Working Paper No. 07/178 , July 01, 2007

Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 07/80 , April 01, 2007

International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different , Working Paper No. 07/64 , March 01, 2007

Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union , Occasional Paper No. 252 , January 03, 2007

Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact , Working Paper No. 06/243 , October 01, 2006

Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon , Working Paper No. 06/193 , August 01, 2006

Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy , Working Paper No. 05/77 , April 01, 2005

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/231 , December 01, 2002

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/204 , November 01, 2002

IMF Country Reports

"Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation" (lead author, with P.Devries, C.Freedman, J.Guajardo, D.Laxton, A.Pescatori), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2010.

"Dealing with Household Debt" (lead author, with D.Igan, J.Simon, P.Topalova, E.R.Karlsdottir, and F.Rozwadowski), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2012.

"Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning Out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses" (with A.Abiad, M.Terrones), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2010.

"What's the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises," (with A.Abiad, R.Balakrishna, P.Koeva Brooks, I.Tytell), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2009.

"Separated at Birth: The Twin Budget and Trade Balances" (with A.Abiad, J.Bluedorn, J.Guajardo, and M.Kumhof), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

"Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy" (with A.Pescatori, A.Alichi, L.Catão, O.Kamenik, H.Kim, D.Laxton, R.Portillo, and F.Zanna), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

"Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union" (with S. Schadler, A. Mody, and A. Abiad). IMF Occasional Paper No. 252.

Daniel Leigh

Daniel Leigh is Assistant to the Director at the Research Department of the IMF. He has served on the IMF teams of Colombia, Gabon, Hungary, Lithuania, and Peru. His research interests are in international macroeconomics, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University, and a M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics. He has publications in the Journal of the European Economic Association, the American Economic Review, the IMF Economic Review, the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economic Policy, the Journal of Macroeconomics, Finance and Development, and has written several chapters of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

Email: DLEIGH@imf.org

Fluent In: Czech, French, Spanish.

Education:

Ph.D., Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999-2004

M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1998-1999

B.A. (First Class Honours), Economics, University of Manchester, 1994-1998


Previous Experience:

International Monetary Fund, Research Department: Senior Economist (World Economic Studies division), 2009-2012.

International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department: Economist (Fiscal Policy division), 2006-2009; Economist Program (Fiscal Policy division), 2005-2006.

International Monetary Fund, European Department: Economist Program (Hungary and Lithuania country assignments), 2004-2005.

International Monetary Fund. European Department: Summer Intern (2002). Estimated effect of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in Turkey and developed inflation forecasting model.

Inter-American Development Bank. Research Department: Summer Intern (2001). Investigated effect of currency union on trade with a focus on EMU.

IMF Books and Working Papers:

U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , Working Paper No. 19/120 , May 31, 2019

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts , Working Paper No. 19/114 , May 23, 2019

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters , Working Paper No. 18/163 , July 13, 2018

Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications , Working Paper No. 18/137 , June 15, 2018

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America , Working Paper No. 18/142 , June 13, 2018

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 18/94 , April 26, 2018

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013

Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers , Working Paper No. 13/1 , January 03, 2013

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/158 , July 01, 2011

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 11/128 , June 01, 2011

To Starve or not to Starve the Beast? , Working Paper No. 10/199 , September 01, 2010

What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 09/245 , November 01, 2009

Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan , Working Paper No. 09/232 , October 01, 2009

Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence from the G7 , Working Paper No. 09/50 , March 01, 2009

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia , Working Paper No. 09/59 , March 01, 2009

The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective , Working Paper No. 09/43 , March 01, 2009

Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy , Working Paper No. 08/69 , March 01, 2008

Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway , Working Paper No. 07/241 , October 01, 2007

Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries , Working Paper No. 07/187 , July 01, 2007

Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences , Working Paper No. 07/178 , July 01, 2007

Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 07/80 , April 01, 2007

International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different , Working Paper No. 07/64 , March 01, 2007

Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union , Occasional Paper No. 252 , January 03, 2007

Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact , Working Paper No. 06/243 , October 01, 2006

Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon , Working Paper No. 06/193 , August 01, 2006

Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy , Working Paper No. 05/77 , April 01, 2005

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/231 , December 01, 2002

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/204 , November 01, 2002

IMF Country Reports

"Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation" (lead author, with P.Devries, C.Freedman, J.Guajardo, D.Laxton, A.Pescatori), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2010.

"Dealing with Household Debt" (lead author, with D.Igan, J.Simon, P.Topalova, E.R.Karlsdottir, and F.Rozwadowski), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2012.

"Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning Out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses" (with A.Abiad, M.Terrones), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2010.

"What's the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises," (with A.Abiad, R.Balakrishna, P.Koeva Brooks, I.Tytell), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2009.

"Separated at Birth: The Twin Budget and Trade Balances" (with A.Abiad, J.Bluedorn, J.Guajardo, and M.Kumhof), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

"Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy" (with A.Pescatori, A.Alichi, L.Catão, O.Kamenik, H.Kim, D.Laxton, R.Portillo, and F.Zanna), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

"Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union" (with S. Schadler, A. Mody, and A. Abiad). IMF Occasional Paper No. 252.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence" (with A.Pescatori and J.Guajardo). Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming).

"Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers" (with O.Blanchard). American Economic Review 103 (May 2013): 117-20.

“Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account” (with J.Bluedorn). IMF Economic Review 59 (2011): 582–602.

“Painful Medicine” (with L.Ball and P.Loungani). Finance&Development (September 2011): 20-23.

"Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42 (August 2010): 833-857.

“Natural Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy” (with J.Olters). Revue d’économie politique 3 (May-June 2010): 487-508.

“Financial Integration, Capital Mobility, and Income Convergence” (with A.Abiad and A.Mody). Economic Policy 58 (April 2009): 241-305.

“The Second Transition” (with S.Fabrizio, and A.Mody). European Economy 366 (March 2009).

“Estimating the Federal Reserve’s Implicit Inflation Target: A State Space Approach.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (2008).

“To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast” (with M.Kumhof and D.Laxton). Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).

"To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast?" (with M.Kumhof and D.Laxton). Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).