Prakash Loungani

Last Updated: October 15, 2009

Prakash Loungani is currently an Advisor in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He is also an adjunct professor of economics at Vanderbilt University's Owen School of Management, and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His research interests include: assessment of macroeconomic forecasting performance; understanding trade linkages among nations and regions; and modeling the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomy.

Email: PLOUNGANI@imf.org

Education:

1986: Ph.D (Economics), University of Rochester (New York)

1983: M.A. (Economics), University of Rochester (New York)

1979: B.A. (Economics), University of Bombay (India)


Previous Experience:

1998-Present: International Monetary Fund
Advisor, Research Department
Editorial Board Member, IMF Staff Papers
Division Chief, External Relations Department (2006-08)
Mission Chief for Grenada (2004-05)
Assistant to the Director, External Relations Department (2000-04)
Senior Economist, Research Department (1999-00)
Country Analyst for the Philippines, Asia and Pacific Department (1998-99)

1992-98: Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Division (Washington, DC)
Country Analyst for Asian economies (1997-98)
Country Analyst for transition economies (1994-96)
Analyst on Multi-Country Model (1992-93)

1990-92: Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

1991-onwards: Adjunct faculty member at various universities:
Adjunct Professor of Management, Vanderbilt University, Owen School (2001 onwards)
Adjunct Professor, School of Advanced International Stuties (SAIS), John Hopkins University
Adjunct Professor, Maxwell School of Communications, Syracuse University

1986-90: Assistant Professor, University of Florida


Other Professional Positions:

1989 onwards (various years):
Participant in National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Summer Institute


Others:

Academic work has appeared in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2007); Journal of Applied Econometrics (2006); IMF Staff Papers (2002); International Journal of Forecasting (2001); Journal of Development Economics (2001); Review of Economics & Statistics (2000, 1986); Journal of International Money & Finance (1999); Journal of Money, Credit & Banking (1997, 1996, 1995); Journal of Industrial Economics (1996); Journal of Monetary Economics(1992, 1991, 1990, 1989); and Energy Economics (1990)

Policy-oriented work, op-eds, and book reviews have appeared in The Cato Journal (2006); Reason (2004); Business Times, Singapore (2002); The World Economy (2001); Financial Times (2000); Finance & Development (2000 onwards); and IMF Survey (2000 onwards)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Inequality and Locational Determinants of the Distribution of Living Standards in India , Working Paper No. 2021/050 , February 26, 2021

Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging and Developing Economies : Evidence and Policy Options , SDN/19/04 , May 21, 2019

Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation , Working Paper No. 18/270 , December 10, 2018

Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation , Working Paper No. 18/223 , September 28, 2018

Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data , Working Paper No. 18/85 , April 11, 2018

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/83 , April 06, 2018

The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 18/57 , March 14, 2018

The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters , Working Paper No. 18/56 , March 13, 2018

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? , Working Paper No. 18/39 , March 05, 2018

Inflation Anchoring and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/36 , March 02, 2018

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 17/196 , September 05, 2017

Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World , Working Paper No. 17/191 , August 30, 2017

Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality , Working Paper No. 15/243 , November 24, 2015

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 15/133 , June 24, 2015

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels , Working Paper No. 15/36 , February 23, 2015

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States , Working Paper No. 14/211 , November 25, 2014

Minimum Wages and Firm Employment: Evidence from China , Working Paper No. 14/184 , October 16, 2014

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 14/31 , February 12, 2014

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe , Working Paper No. 14/26 , February 11, 2014

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts , Working Paper No. 14/24 , February 10, 2014

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks , Working Paper No. 13/180 , August 15, 2013

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013

Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession , Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/2 , March 29, 2013

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 13/56 , February 27, 2013

Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013

Global Housing Cycles , Working Paper No. 12/217 , August 01, 2012

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/125 , June 01, 2011

New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment , Working Paper No. 11/106 , May 01, 2011

Measuring Energy Security : Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies , Working Paper No. 11/39 , February 01, 2011

Asian Financial Integration : Trends and Interruptions , Working Paper No. 11/4 , January 01, 2011

The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It , Staff Position Note No. 2010/17 , November 11, 2010

The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It , Staff Position Note No. 2010/17 , November 11, 2010

Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 01/198 , December 01, 2001

Capital Flight from Russia , Policy Discussion Paper No. 00/6 , June 01, 2000

Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff , Working Paper No. 00/87 , May 01, 2000

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth , Working Paper No. 00/77 , April 01, 2000

The East Asian Crisis - Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons , Working Paper No. 98/128 , September 01, 1998

Other Published Materials

A. Journal Articles

"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence based on cross-country surveys," 2006, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.21, No. 6, pp. 703-25 (with G. Isiklar and K. Lahiri)

"Further cross-country evidence on the accuracy of the private sector's output forecasts," 2002, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 49-64 (with Grace Juhn)

"How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," 2001, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 419-32

"Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," 2001, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 64, No. 1, pp. 255-74 (with Assaf Razin and Chi-WaYuen)

"The differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses," 2000, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82. No. 2, pp. 338-43 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," 1999, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 515–35 (with John Fernald and Hali Edison)

"Central bank independence, inflation, and growth in transition economies," 1997, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 381–99 (with Nathan Sheets)

"Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries," 1996, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 650–68 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," 1996, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 217–28 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"The effect of changes in reserve requirements on investment and GNP," 1995, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 511–26 (with Mark Rush)

"The role of energy in real business cycle models," 1992, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 173–89 (with In-Moo Kim)

"Stock market dispersion and unemployment," 1990, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 367–88 (with Mark Rush and William Tave)

"Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation: evidence from the PSID," 1989, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 259-73 (with Richard Rogerson)

"Oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis," 1986, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, Vol. 68, No. 3 (August), pp. 536–39

B. Other Academic Work

"The elusive quest for energy independence," 2009, International Finance, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 291-99

"Out of the Ballpark," 2009, (The Global Recession of 2008-09), Finance & Development, June

"Flying geese or sitting ducks? China's impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," 2009, in edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong, Routledge. Also available as Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Discussion Paper, No. 887 (with Alan Ahearne, John Fernald and John Schindler

"Economic forecasts: too smooth by far?" World economics, Vol. 9, No. 2, April-June 2008, pp.1-12 (with Jair Rodriguez)

"The global disconnect: the role of transactional distance and scale economies in gravity equations," 2007, Foreign Direct Investment, and The World Economy, edited by Ashoka Mody, Routledge (with Ashoka Mody and Assaf Razin)

"Globalization and equilibrium inflation-output tradeoffs," 2007, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, MIT Press (with Assaf Razin)

"In defense of globalization," 2005, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 544-548 (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati's book "In defense of globalization")

"China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?" 2003, The Post-Crisis Macroeconomic Adjustment in Asia, proceedings from a conference hosted by the Seoul Journal of Economics, (with A. Ahearne, J. Fernald and J. Schindler)

"Predicting when the economy will turn," March 15, 2002, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, (with Bharat Trehan)

"There will be growth in the spring," 2002, World Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (January-March)

"How clear is the crystal ball?" 2001, World Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1 (January-March)

"Capital flight from Russia," 2001, The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, Vol. 24, No. 5, 689–706 (with Paolo Mauro)

"Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?" 2001, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Issue IV, pp. 38–52 (with Alan Ahearne and John Fernald)

"Business cycles in emerging market economies," 2000, Money Affairs, Centre for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA), Vol. XIII, No. 1 (with Shaghil Ahmed)

"The East Asian crisis: macroeconomic developments and policy lessons," 1999, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Development Papers, No. 20 (with Kalpana Kochhar and Mark Stone)

"Regional labor fluctuations: Oil shocks, military spending, and other driving forces," Federal Reserve Board Working Paper, IFDP 578, 1997 (with Steve David and Ram Mahidara).

"Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.-how similar are they?" 1997, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (May), pp. 15–28 (with Hesna Genay)

"Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs. aggregate shocks," 1997, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pp. 3–15 (with Bharat Trehan)

"Job creation and destruction," May 2, 1997, Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter (with Bharat Trehan)

"Macroeconomic effects of labor realocation: a comment," 1996, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Vol. 44 (June), pp. 117–24

"Stock market dispersion and business cycles," 1991, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, (January), pp. 2–8 (with Mark Rush and William Tave)

"Modeling state energy consumption: forecasts for Florida, 1987-2006," 1990, Energy Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 216–26 (with Sanford Berg)

C. Book Reviews and Op-Eds

"Foreign aid isn’t?" 2006, Cato Journal, Volume 26 No. 2, pp. 382-4 (Review of William Easterly’s "The white man’s burden")

"In defence of globalization," 2005, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 544–8 (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati’s "In defense of globalization")

"How flat is the world?" IMF Survey, May 9, 2005 (Review of Tom Friedman’s "The world is flat" and Pietra Rivoli’s "The travels of a T-shirt in the global economy")

"Will the Fed stay in good hands?" IMF Survey, March 21, 2005 (Review of three books on the Fed by Alan S. Blinder, Laurence H. Meyer and Joseph B. Treaster)

"The grass is always greener across the pond," IMF Survey, January 24, 2005 (Review of books on Europe vs. America)

"Globalization without tears," 2004, Reason, August/September issue (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati’s "In defense of globalization")

"Glad about globalization," Finance & Development, September 2004 (Review of Martin Wolf’s "Why globalization works")

"Another world economic outlook is possible?," Finance & Development, March 2004 (Review of "Real world economic outlook" edited by Ann Pettifor)

"Food Fight!" Finance & Development, December 2003 (Review of two books by Jack Hollander and Lester Brown)

"Worth enduring the smoke," Finance & Development, December 2002 (Review of Robert Barro’s “Nothing is sacred”)

"Are forecasts of recovery credible?" Business Times (Singapore), March 18, 2002

"On Greenspan," Finance & Development, June 2001 (Review of books on Greenspan by Bob Woodward and Justin Martin)

"The arcane art of predicting recessions," Financial Times, December 18, 2000

Review of "Multinationals and East Asian Integration," edited by Wendy Dobson and Chia Siow Yue, Journal of Asian Economics, 1999, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 497–99

Review of "Applied time series analysis for business and economic forecasting," by Sufi M. Nazem, Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, 1990, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 565-66

D. Other Publications in Finance & Development (a quarterly magazine of the IMF)

"Puttin’ on the hits: a profile of Robert Barro," September 2007

"Getting there first: a profile of Martin Feldstein," March 2004

"Trading places: measuring income mobility," March 2004

"The global war on poverty: who’s winning?" December 2003

"Inequality: now you see it, now you don’t," September 2003

"How beneficial is FDI for developing countries?" June 2001 (with Assaf Razin)

"Comrades or competitors: trade links between China and other East Asian economies," June 2000

E. Other Articles for IMF Survey (a fortnightly magazine of news, views, and analysis)

"The I’s Have IT (Ashish Arora on IT sector in India and elsewhere)," IMF Survey, 2007

"Meet Dr. Doom" (Nouriel Roubini on prospects of U.S. recession), IMF Survey, October 16, 2006

"Pragmatism: Latin America’s new 'ism'?" (Javier Santiso on Latin American politics and policies), IMF Survey, June 12, 2006

"Fine-tuning the IMF’s assistance to the Eastern Caribbean," IMF Survey, January 23, 2006

"The new Russian Revolution?" (Interview with Mick Keen on effects of the flat tax) IMF Survey, February 21, 2005

"Helping Grenada rebound," IMF Survey, December 13, 2004

Interview with Manmohan Singh: "Dealing in distress? Understanding the market for distressed debt," IMF Survey, November 8, 2004

Interview with Mark Watson: "Predicting the present: prospects for the U.S. economy," IMF Survey, July 26, 2004

Interview with Robert Shiller: "Figuring out financial markets: more psychology than economics?" IMF Survey, April 14, 2004

IMF Book Forum: "Capitalism: critics and champions," IMF Survey, November 3, 2003

NBER Summer Institute: "Is the United States becoming more egalitarian?" IMF Survey, September 8, 2003

Interview with James Hamilton: "World oil prices and U.S. recessions: tracking a slippery relationship," IMF Survey, August 18, 2003

Interview with Arnold Harberger: "Sound policies can free up natural forces of growth," IMF Survey, July 14, 2003

"What is behind the declines in global income inequality and poverty?" IMF Survey, March 17, 2003

Razin lecture by Krugman: "World on the verge of an economic breakdown?" IMF Survey, March 3, 2003

Interview with Surjit Bhalla: "Growth, poverty, inequality—getting the facts right," IMF Survey, October 21, 2002

"Is global inequality rising?" IMF Survey, October 21, 2002

"Can fiscal policy help oil-producing countries avoid the "resource curse?" IMF Survey, September 2, 2002

Sargent seminar: "Reversal of fortunes: understanding the evolution of European and U.S. unemployment," IMF Survey, September 2, 2002

Dialogue with Angus Deaton: "When numbers don’t tell the full story about poverty in India and the world," IMF Survey, July 8, 2002

Interview with Daniel Yergin: "Confidence in markets rose after the 1970s, but the pendulum may be swinging back," IMF Survey, June 24, 2002

Interview with Carol Carson: "Inflation targeting requires not more statistics, but new ways of presenting them," IMF Survey, April 8, 2002

"How can we measure the credibility of inflation targeting regimes?" IMF Survey, April 8, 2002

Dornbusch on "Global economy, Argentina, Russia, and much more . . ." IMF Survey, March 25, 2002

Cato Institute event: "Are we there yet? Åslund assesses progress of transition economies after a decade," IMF Survey, February 11, 2002

Interview with Max Corden: "How should developing countries choose an exchange rate regime?" IMF Survey, February 11, 2002

IMF Research Conference: "Participants explore effective conditionality, costs of currency crises, disinflation," IMF Survey, December 10, 2001

IMF Institute seminar: "Aid alone will not help poor countries grow out of poverty," IMF Survey, November 12, 2001

IIE studies: "Trade liberalization can yield major benefits, but are new initiatives likely to be taken up?" IMF Survey, October 8, 2001

Interview with David Dollar: "Globalizing countries provide evidence of faster growth, rising incomes for poor," IMF Survey, September 17, 2001

Interview with Charles Calomiris: "Commends recent IMF reforms but urges further rethinking of policies, facilities," IMF Survey, September 3, 2001

Conference in Tokyo: "Asian policymakers examine country ownership and effectiveness of IMF conditionality," IMF Survey, July 30, 2001

Interview with Alberto Alesina: "Growing interest in currency unions may reflect real benefits for some countries," IMF Survey, July 2, 2001

Interview with Steven Phillips: "Study examines record of program projections: how clear is the crystal ball?" IMF Survey, May 21, 2001

Workshop proceedings: "Participants discuss IMF role in poverty reduction; links between macroeconomic policies and poverty," IMF Survey, May 7, 2001

Honoring Assaf Razin: "Conference ponders global outlook, financial crises, and effects of capital account liberalization," IMF Survey, April 16, 2001

IIE presentation: "Mann argues U.S. trade deficits, though large, continue to be sustainable in near term," IMF Survey, March 19, 2001

Executive Board review: "FSAP provides a framework for identifying financial sector vulnerabilities in countries," IMF Survey, March 5, 2001

Hernando De Soto: "Integrating the poor into official legal system can unleash their economic potential," IMF Survey, November 6, 2000

IMF Institute seminar: "Dornbusch offers advice on role of countries’ exchange rate policies," IMF Survey, July 31, 2000

F. Speeches and Talks

"Globalization by the book," February 5, 2007, Keynote Address at an American Association of Publishers conference, Washington, D.C.

"Economic globalization: who wins and who loses," March 3, 2006, Batalden Seminar in Applied Ethics, Augsburg College, Minneapolis

"Can trade deficits derail the global economy," August 23, 2006, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta

"Will oil spoil the global outlook?" August 24, 2005, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta

"Comrades or competitors: how China is reshaping the world’s economic outlook," August 25, 2004, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta

Prakash Loungani is currently an Advisor in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He is also an adjunct professor of economics at Vanderbilt University's Owen School of Management, and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His research interests include: assessment of macroeconomic forecasting performance; understanding trade linkages among nations and regions; and modeling the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomy.

Email: PLOUNGANI@imf.org

Education:

1986: Ph.D (Economics), University of Rochester (New York)

1983: M.A. (Economics), University of Rochester (New York)

1979: B.A. (Economics), University of Bombay (India)


Previous Experience:

1998-Present: International Monetary Fund
Advisor, Research Department
Editorial Board Member, IMF Staff Papers
Division Chief, External Relations Department (2006-08)
Mission Chief for Grenada (2004-05)
Assistant to the Director, External Relations Department (2000-04)
Senior Economist, Research Department (1999-00)
Country Analyst for the Philippines, Asia and Pacific Department (1998-99)

1992-98: Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Division (Washington, DC)
Country Analyst for Asian economies (1997-98)
Country Analyst for transition economies (1994-96)
Analyst on Multi-Country Model (1992-93)

1990-92: Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

1991-onwards: Adjunct faculty member at various universities:
Adjunct Professor of Management, Vanderbilt University, Owen School (2001 onwards)
Adjunct Professor, School of Advanced International Stuties (SAIS), John Hopkins University
Adjunct Professor, Maxwell School of Communications, Syracuse University

1986-90: Assistant Professor, University of Florida


Other Professional Positions:

1989 onwards (various years):
Participant in National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Summer Institute


Others:

Academic work has appeared in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2007); Journal of Applied Econometrics (2006); IMF Staff Papers (2002); International Journal of Forecasting (2001); Journal of Development Economics (2001); Review of Economics & Statistics (2000, 1986); Journal of International Money & Finance (1999); Journal of Money, Credit & Banking (1997, 1996, 1995); Journal of Industrial Economics (1996); Journal of Monetary Economics(1992, 1991, 1990, 1989); and Energy Economics (1990)

Policy-oriented work, op-eds, and book reviews have appeared in The Cato Journal (2006); Reason (2004); Business Times, Singapore (2002); The World Economy (2001); Financial Times (2000); Finance & Development (2000 onwards); and IMF Survey (2000 onwards)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Inequality and Locational Determinants of the Distribution of Living Standards in India , Working Paper No. 2021/050 , February 26, 2021

Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging and Developing Economies : Evidence and Policy Options , SDN/19/04 , May 21, 2019

Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation , Working Paper No. 18/270 , December 10, 2018

Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation , Working Paper No. 18/223 , September 28, 2018

Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data , Working Paper No. 18/85 , April 11, 2018

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/83 , April 06, 2018

The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 18/57 , March 14, 2018

The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters , Working Paper No. 18/56 , March 13, 2018

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? , Working Paper No. 18/39 , March 05, 2018

Inflation Anchoring and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/36 , March 02, 2018

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 17/196 , September 05, 2017

Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World , Working Paper No. 17/191 , August 30, 2017

Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality , Working Paper No. 15/243 , November 24, 2015

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 15/133 , June 24, 2015

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels , Working Paper No. 15/36 , February 23, 2015

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States , Working Paper No. 14/211 , November 25, 2014

Minimum Wages and Firm Employment: Evidence from China , Working Paper No. 14/184 , October 16, 2014

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 14/31 , February 12, 2014

Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe , Working Paper No. 14/26 , February 11, 2014

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts , Working Paper No. 14/24 , February 10, 2014

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks , Working Paper No. 13/180 , August 15, 2013

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013

Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession , Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/2 , March 29, 2013

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel , Working Paper No. 13/56 , February 27, 2013

Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013

Global Housing Cycles , Working Paper No. 12/217 , August 01, 2012

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/125 , June 01, 2011

New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment , Working Paper No. 11/106 , May 01, 2011

Measuring Energy Security : Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies , Working Paper No. 11/39 , February 01, 2011

Asian Financial Integration : Trends and Interruptions , Working Paper No. 11/4 , January 01, 2011

The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It , Staff Position Note No. 2010/17 , November 11, 2010

The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It , Staff Position Note No. 2010/17 , November 11, 2010

Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 01/198 , December 01, 2001

Capital Flight from Russia , Policy Discussion Paper No. 00/6 , June 01, 2000

Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff , Working Paper No. 00/87 , May 01, 2000

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth , Working Paper No. 00/77 , April 01, 2000

The East Asian Crisis - Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons , Working Paper No. 98/128 , September 01, 1998

Other Published Materials

A. Journal Articles

"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence based on cross-country surveys," 2006, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.21, No. 6, pp. 703-25 (with G. Isiklar and K. Lahiri)

"Further cross-country evidence on the accuracy of the private sector's output forecasts," 2002, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 49-64 (with Grace Juhn)

"How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," 2001, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 419-32

"Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," 2001, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 64, No. 1, pp. 255-74 (with Assaf Razin and Chi-WaYuen)

"The differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses," 2000, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82. No. 2, pp. 338-43 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," 1999, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 515–35 (with John Fernald and Hali Edison)

"Central bank independence, inflation, and growth in transition economies," 1997, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 381–99 (with Nathan Sheets)

"Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of U.S. manufacturing industries," 1996, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 650–68 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," 1996, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 217–28 (with Vivek Ghosal)

"The effect of changes in reserve requirements on investment and GNP," 1995, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 511–26 (with Mark Rush)

"The role of energy in real business cycle models," 1992, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 173–89 (with In-Moo Kim)

"Stock market dispersion and unemployment," 1990, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 367–88 (with Mark Rush and William Tave)

"Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation: evidence from the PSID," 1989, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 259-73 (with Richard Rogerson)

"Oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis," 1986, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, Vol. 68, No. 3 (August), pp. 536–39

B. Other Academic Work

"The elusive quest for energy independence," 2009, International Finance, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 291-99

"Out of the Ballpark," 2009, (The Global Recession of 2008-09), Finance & Development, June

"Flying geese or sitting ducks? China's impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," 2009, in edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong, Routledge. Also available as Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Discussion Paper, No. 887 (with Alan Ahearne, John Fernald and John Schindler

"Economic forecasts: too smooth by far?" World economics, Vol. 9, No. 2, April-June 2008, pp.1-12 (with Jair Rodriguez)

"The global disconnect: the role of transactional distance and scale economies in gravity equations," 2007, Foreign Direct Investment, and The World Economy, edited by Ashoka Mody, Routledge (with Ashoka Mody and Assaf Razin)

"Globalization and equilibrium inflation-output tradeoffs," 2007, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, MIT Press (with Assaf Razin)

"In defense of globalization," 2005, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 544-548 (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati's book "In defense of globalization")

"China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?" 2003, The Post-Crisis Macroeconomic Adjustment in Asia, proceedings from a conference hosted by the Seoul Journal of Economics, (with A. Ahearne, J. Fernald and J. Schindler)

"Predicting when the economy will turn," March 15, 2002, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, (with Bharat Trehan)

"There will be growth in the spring," 2002, World Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (January-March)

"How clear is the crystal ball?" 2001, World Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1 (January-March)

"Capital flight from Russia," 2001, The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, Vol. 24, No. 5, 689–706 (with Paolo Mauro)

"Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?" 2001, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Issue IV, pp. 38–52 (with Alan Ahearne and John Fernald)

"Business cycles in emerging market economies," 2000, Money Affairs, Centre for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA), Vol. XIII, No. 1 (with Shaghil Ahmed)

"The East Asian crisis: macroeconomic developments and policy lessons," 1999, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Development Papers, No. 20 (with Kalpana Kochhar and Mark Stone)

"Regional labor fluctuations: Oil shocks, military spending, and other driving forces," Federal Reserve Board Working Paper, IFDP 578, 1997 (with Steve David and Ram Mahidara).

"Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.-how similar are they?" 1997, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (May), pp. 15–28 (with Hesna Genay)

"Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs. aggregate shocks," 1997, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pp. 3–15 (with Bharat Trehan)

"Job creation and destruction," May 2, 1997, Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter (with Bharat Trehan)

"Macroeconomic effects of labor realocation: a comment," 1996, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Vol. 44 (June), pp. 117–24

"Stock market dispersion and business cycles," 1991, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, (January), pp. 2–8 (with Mark Rush and William Tave)

"Modeling state energy consumption: forecasts for Florida, 1987-2006," 1990, Energy Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 216–26 (with Sanford Berg)

C. Book Reviews and Op-Eds

"Foreign aid isn’t?" 2006, Cato Journal, Volume 26 No. 2, pp. 382-4 (Review of William Easterly’s "The white man’s burden")

"In defence of globalization," 2005, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 544–8 (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati’s "In defense of globalization")

"How flat is the world?" IMF Survey, May 9, 2005 (Review of Tom Friedman’s "The world is flat" and Pietra Rivoli’s "The travels of a T-shirt in the global economy")

"Will the Fed stay in good hands?" IMF Survey, March 21, 2005 (Review of three books on the Fed by Alan S. Blinder, Laurence H. Meyer and Joseph B. Treaster)

"The grass is always greener across the pond," IMF Survey, January 24, 2005 (Review of books on Europe vs. America)

"Globalization without tears," 2004, Reason, August/September issue (Review of Jagdish Bhagwati’s "In defense of globalization")

"Glad about globalization," Finance & Development, September 2004 (Review of Martin Wolf’s "Why globalization works")

"Another world economic outlook is possible?," Finance & Development, March 2004 (Review of "Real world economic outlook" edited by Ann Pettifor)

"Food Fight!" Finance & Development, December 2003 (Review of two books by Jack Hollander and Lester Brown)

"Worth enduring the smoke," Finance & Development, December 2002 (Review of Robert Barro’s “Nothing is sacred”)

"Are forecasts of recovery credible?" Business Times (Singapore), March 18, 2002

"On Greenspan," Finance & Development, June 2001 (Review of books on Greenspan by Bob Woodward and Justin Martin)

"The arcane art of predicting recessions," Financial Times, December 18, 2000

Review of "Multinationals and East Asian Integration," edited by Wendy Dobson and Chia Siow Yue, Journal of Asian Economics, 1999, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 497–99

Review of "Applied time series analysis for business and economic forecasting," by Sufi M. Nazem, Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, 1990, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 565-66

D. Other Publications in Finance & Development (a quarterly magazine of the IMF)

"Puttin’ on the hits: a profile of Robert Barro," September 2007

"Getting there first: a profile of Martin Feldstein," March 2004

"Trading places: measuring income mobility," March 2004

"The global war on poverty: who’s winning?" December 2003

"Inequality: now you see it, now you don’t," September 2003

"How beneficial is FDI for developing countries?" June 2001 (with Assaf Razin)

"Comrades or competitors: trade links between China and other East Asian economies," June 2000

E. Other Articles for IMF Survey (a fortnightly magazine of news, views, and analysis)

"The I’s Have IT (Ashish Arora on IT sector in India and elsewhere)," IMF Survey, 2007

"Meet Dr. Doom" (Nouriel Roubini on prospects of U.S. recession), IMF Survey, October 16, 2006

"Pragmatism: Latin America’s new 'ism'?" (Javier Santiso on Latin American politics and policies), IMF Survey, June 12, 2006

"Fine-tuning the IMF’s assistance to the Eastern Caribbean," IMF Survey, January 23, 2006

"The new Russian Revolution?" (Interview with Mick Keen on effects of the flat tax) IMF Survey, February 21, 2005

"Helping Grenada rebound," IMF Survey, December 13, 2004

Interview with Manmohan Singh: "Dealing in distress? Understanding the market for distressed debt," IMF Survey, November 8, 2004

Interview with Mark Watson: "Predicting the present: prospects for the U.S. economy," IMF Survey, July 26, 2004

Interview with Robert Shiller: "Figuring out financial markets: more psychology than economics?" IMF Survey, April 14, 2004

IMF Book Forum: "Capitalism: critics and champions," IMF Survey, November 3, 2003

NBER Summer Institute: "Is the United States becoming more egalitarian?" IMF Survey, September 8, 2003

Interview with James Hamilton: "World oil prices and U.S. recessions: tracking a slippery relationship," IMF Survey, August 18, 2003

Interview with Arnold Harberger: "Sound policies can free up natural forces of growth," IMF Survey, July 14, 2003

"What is behind the declines in global income inequality and poverty?" IMF Survey, March 17, 2003

Razin lecture by Krugman: "World on the verge of an economic breakdown?" IMF Survey, March 3, 2003

Interview with Surjit Bhalla: "Growth, poverty, inequality—getting the facts right," IMF Survey, October 21, 2002

"Is global inequality rising?" IMF Survey, October 21, 2002

"Can fiscal policy help oil-producing countries avoid the "resource curse?" IMF Survey, September 2, 2002

Sargent seminar: "Reversal of fortunes: understanding the evolution of European and U.S. unemployment," IMF Survey, September 2, 2002

Dialogue with Angus Deaton: "When numbers don’t tell the full story about poverty in India and the world," IMF Survey, July 8, 2002

Interview with Daniel Yergin: "Confidence in markets rose after the 1970s, but the pendulum may be swinging back," IMF Survey, June 24, 2002

Interview with Carol Carson: "Inflation targeting requires not more statistics, but new ways of presenting them," IMF Survey, April 8, 2002

"How can we measure the credibility of inflation targeting regimes?" IMF Survey, April 8, 2002

Dornbusch on "Global economy, Argentina, Russia, and much more . . ." IMF Survey, March 25, 2002

Cato Institute event: "Are we there yet? Åslund assesses progress of transition economies after a decade," IMF Survey, February 11, 2002

Interview with Max Corden: "How should developing countries choose an exchange rate regime?" IMF Survey, February 11, 2002

IMF Research Conference: "Participants explore effective conditionality, costs of currency crises, disinflation," IMF Survey, December 10, 2001

IMF Institute seminar: "Aid alone will not help poor countries grow out of poverty," IMF Survey, November 12, 2001

IIE studies: "Trade liberalization can yield major benefits, but are new initiatives likely to be taken up?" IMF Survey, October 8, 2001

Interview with David Dollar: "Globalizing countries provide evidence of faster growth, rising incomes for poor," IMF Survey, September 17, 2001

Interview with Charles Calomiris: "Commends recent IMF reforms but urges further rethinking of policies, facilities," IMF Survey, September 3, 2001

Conference in Tokyo: "Asian policymakers examine country ownership and effectiveness of IMF conditionality," IMF Survey, July 30, 2001

Interview with Alberto Alesina: "Growing interest in currency unions may reflect real benefits for some countries," IMF Survey, July 2, 2001

Interview with Steven Phillips: "Study examines record of program projections: how clear is the crystal ball?" IMF Survey, May 21, 2001

Workshop proceedings: "Participants discuss IMF role in poverty reduction; links between macroeconomic policies and poverty," IMF Survey, May 7, 2001

Honoring Assaf Razin: "Conference ponders global outlook, financial crises, and effects of capital account liberalization," IMF Survey, April 16, 2001

IIE presentation: "Mann argues U.S. trade deficits, though large, continue to be sustainable in near term," IMF Survey, March 19, 2001

Executive Board review: "FSAP provides a framework for identifying financial sector vulnerabilities in countries," IMF Survey, March 5, 2001

Hernando De Soto: "Integrating the poor into official legal system can unleash their economic potential," IMF Survey, November 6, 2000

IMF Institute seminar: "Dornbusch offers advice on role of countries’ exchange rate policies," IMF Survey, July 31, 2000

F. Speeches and Talks

"Globalization by the book," February 5, 2007, Keynote Address at an American Association of Publishers conference, Washington, D.C.

"Economic globalization: who wins and who loses," March 3, 2006, Batalden Seminar in Applied Ethics, Augsburg College, Minneapolis

"Can trade deficits derail the global economy," August 23, 2006, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta

"Will oil spoil the global outlook?" August 24, 2005, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta

"Comrades or competitors: how China is reshaping the world’s economic outlook," August 25, 2004, Economic Forecasting Center quarterly conference, Georgia State University, Atlanta