Giovanni Melina

Last Updated: August 30, 2021

Giovanni Melina

Giovanni Melina is a senior economist in the Research Department of the IMF. Before joining the Fund, he worked as an Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at City University London, after obtaining a PhD in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London. His research focuses on understanding the sources and propagation of macroeconomic shocks, on the design of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies, and the link between macroeconomic policy and growth in developing countries. Recently his research has focused also on green investments and on the effects of climate change on macroeconomic outcomes of disaster-prone countries.

Email: GMELINA@imf.org

Personal WebPage: https://ideas.repec.org/f/pme403.html

Fluent In: Italian, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London, UK


Previous Experience:

Associate Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

Assistant Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

ESRC-funded Research Fellow, University of Surrey, UK

PhD intern, International Monetary Fund, USA

Economist, HM Treasury, UK


Current Position:

Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA


Other Professional Positions:

CESifo Research Network Fellow, Munich, Germany


Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Public Finance

Economic Modeling

Energy and Environmental Economics

Development Economics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries , Departmental Paper No 2021/006 , March 24, 2021

Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? , Working Paper No. 2021/087 , March 19, 2021

The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier , Working Paper No. 2021/039 , February 12, 2021

How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 20/86 , June 05, 2020

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries , Working Paper No. 19/217 , October 11, 2019

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound , Working Paper No. 19/133 , June 28, 2019

Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 19/121 , June 03, 2019

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models , Working Paper No. 19/62 , March 18, 2019

Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia , Working Paper No. 19/54 , March 08, 2019

The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 18/57 , March 14, 2018

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa , Working Paper No. 18/40 , March 05, 2018

Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods , Working Paper No. 17/290 , December 22, 2017

Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending , Working Paper No. 17/179 , July 31, 2017

Investing in Public Infrastructure : Roads or Schools? , Working Paper No. 17/105 , May 04, 2017

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model , Working Paper No. 14/50 , March 31, 2014

Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique , Working Paper No. 13/261 , December 23, 2013

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships , Working Paper No. 13/141 , June 05, 2013

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery , Working Paper No. 13/17 , January 18, 2013

Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan , Working Paper No. 12/190 , July 01, 2012

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 11/203 , August 01, 2011

IMF Country Reports

“Guinea—Diversification and Medium-Term Growth Prospects” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Annex V, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, forthcoming.

“Botswana—Estimating the Impact of Risks Using the DIGNAR-19 Framework” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Box X, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

“Nigeria—Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Resurgence in Nigeria” (with Gabriela Cugat and Felipe Zanna), Box 2, Staff Report for the 2020 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Iraq—Quantifying the Macroeconomic Benefits of Improved Governance (with Alessandro Cantelmo), Box 1, Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Saint Lucia—Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters (with Leo Bonato, Alessandro Cantelmo and Gonzalo Salinas), Annex VI, Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation with Saint Lucia, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Thailand—Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability (with Pablo Lopez Murphy), Appendix VII, Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation with Thailand, IMF Country Report No. 17/136, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Namibia—Calibrating "Growth-Friendly" Fiscal Consolidation in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Namibia—Enhancing the Responsiveness of Employment to Growth in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Caribbean Region—Public Debt Targeting. An application to the Caribbean (with Alejandro Guerson), in Gaston, G. (Editor), 2014, Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Mozambique—Natural Resource Wealth and Public Investment Strategy: Implications for Growth and Debt (with Yi Xiong), in Ross, D. (Editor), 2014, Mozambique Rising: Building a New Tomorrow, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Mozambique—Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability” (with Yi Xiong), Appendix IV, Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Mozambique, IMF Country Report No. 13/200, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Other Published Materials

Board Paper: Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Regional Economic Outlook—Sub-Saharan Africa: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (with IMF colleagues), Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

World Economic Outlook: Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms? (with Gabriele Ciminelli, Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Guzman Gonzalez-Torres Fernandez, Joao Jalles and Cian Ruane), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, October 2019, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Board Paper: Review of 1997 Guidance Note on Governance–A Proposed Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement” (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, 2018, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Impacts of Revenue Mobilization in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries (with Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro), Box 2.2, Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Fiscal Monitor: Debt: Use it Wisely (with Marialuz Moreno Badia, Nicoletta Batini, Victor Lledo, Lorenzo Forni, Samba Mbaye and Rossen Rozenov), Fiscal Monitor, October 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

World Economic Outlook: Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: the Role of External Factors (with Futoshi Narita, Andrea Presbitero and Felipe Zanna), Box 1.2, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

“The Impact of r-g on Euro-Area Government Spending Multipliers” (with Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2021, Journal of International Money and Finance, in press.

“How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area” (with Nicoletta Batini, Alessandro Cantelmo and Stefania Villa), 2021, Oxford Economics Papers, in press.

Macroeconomic impacts of non-resource revenue mobilization in CEMAC (with Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro), 2021, Applied Economics Letters, 28:9, 721-726.

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound (with Adalgiso Amendola, Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2020, European Economic Review, 127, 103480.

Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2020, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in press.

Investing in Public Infrastructure; Roads or Schools? (with Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li and Ricardo Marto), 2020, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in press.

Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt and Recession: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (with Nicoletta Batini and Stefania Villa), 2019, Journal of Macroeconomics, 62, 103044.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Joe Pearlman), 2019, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(3), 1166-120.

"Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods" (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2018, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48.

Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending (with Stefania Villa), 2018, Economic Inquiry, 56(1), 460-482.

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model (with Shu-Chun S. Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna), 2016, Economic Modelling, 52, 630-649.

Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective (with Mauro Costantini and Matteo Fragetta), 2014, European Economic Review, 70, 337–349.

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery (with Cristiano Cantore and Paul Levine), 2014, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(3), 669-701.

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships (with Stefania Villa), 2014, Economic Inquiry, 52(2), 696-712.

Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective (with Matteo Fragetta), 2013, Empirical Economics, 45(2), 831-844.

A Fiscal Stimulus with Deep Habits and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Bo Yang), 2012, Economics Letters, 117(1), 348-353.

An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Yunus Aksoy), 2012, Economics Letters, 114(1), 64-68.

The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR models: a Graphical Modelling Approach (with Matteo Fragetta), 2011, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58(4), 537-566.

US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output (with Yunus Aksoy), 2011, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 221-236.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa (with Rafael Portillo), in Berg, A. and Portillo, R. (Editors), 2018, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Giovanni Melina

Giovanni Melina is a senior economist in the Research Department of the IMF. Before joining the Fund, he worked as an Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at City University London, after obtaining a PhD in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London. His research focuses on understanding the sources and propagation of macroeconomic shocks, on the design of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies, and the link between macroeconomic policy and growth in developing countries. Recently his research has focused also on green investments and on the effects of climate change on macroeconomic outcomes of disaster-prone countries.

Email: GMELINA@imf.org

Personal WebPage: https://ideas.repec.org/f/pme403.html

Fluent In: Italian, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London, UK


Previous Experience:

Associate Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

Assistant Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

ESRC-funded Research Fellow, University of Surrey, UK

PhD intern, International Monetary Fund, USA

Economist, HM Treasury, UK


Current Position:

Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA


Other Professional Positions:

CESifo Research Network Fellow, Munich, Germany


Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Public Finance

Economic Modeling

Energy and Environmental Economics

Development Economics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries , Departmental Paper No 2021/006 , March 24, 2021

Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? , Working Paper No. 2021/087 , March 19, 2021

The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier , Working Paper No. 2021/039 , February 12, 2021

How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 20/86 , June 05, 2020

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries , Working Paper No. 19/217 , October 11, 2019

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound , Working Paper No. 19/133 , June 28, 2019

Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 19/121 , June 03, 2019

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models , Working Paper No. 19/62 , March 18, 2019

Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia , Working Paper No. 19/54 , March 08, 2019

The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies , Working Paper No. 18/57 , March 14, 2018

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa , Working Paper No. 18/40 , March 05, 2018

Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods , Working Paper No. 17/290 , December 22, 2017

Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending , Working Paper No. 17/179 , July 31, 2017

Investing in Public Infrastructure : Roads or Schools? , Working Paper No. 17/105 , May 04, 2017

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model , Working Paper No. 14/50 , March 31, 2014

Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique , Working Paper No. 13/261 , December 23, 2013

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships , Working Paper No. 13/141 , June 05, 2013

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery , Working Paper No. 13/17 , January 18, 2013

Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan , Working Paper No. 12/190 , July 01, 2012

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 11/203 , August 01, 2011

IMF Country Reports

“Guinea—Diversification and Medium-Term Growth Prospects” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Annex V, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, forthcoming.

“Botswana—Estimating the Impact of Risks Using the DIGNAR-19 Framework” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Box X, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

“Nigeria—Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Resurgence in Nigeria” (with Gabriela Cugat and Felipe Zanna), Box 2, Staff Report for the 2020 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Iraq—Quantifying the Macroeconomic Benefits of Improved Governance (with Alessandro Cantelmo), Box 1, Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Saint Lucia—Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters (with Leo Bonato, Alessandro Cantelmo and Gonzalo Salinas), Annex VI, Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation with Saint Lucia, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Thailand—Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability (with Pablo Lopez Murphy), Appendix VII, Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation with Thailand, IMF Country Report No. 17/136, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Namibia—Calibrating "Growth-Friendly" Fiscal Consolidation in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Namibia—Enhancing the Responsiveness of Employment to Growth in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Caribbean Region—Public Debt Targeting. An application to the Caribbean (with Alejandro Guerson), in Gaston, G. (Editor), 2014, Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Mozambique—Natural Resource Wealth and Public Investment Strategy: Implications for Growth and Debt (with Yi Xiong), in Ross, D. (Editor), 2014, Mozambique Rising: Building a New Tomorrow, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Mozambique—Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability” (with Yi Xiong), Appendix IV, Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Mozambique, IMF Country Report No. 13/200, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Other Published Materials

Board Paper: Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Regional Economic Outlook—Sub-Saharan Africa: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (with IMF colleagues), Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

World Economic Outlook: Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms? (with Gabriele Ciminelli, Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Guzman Gonzalez-Torres Fernandez, Joao Jalles and Cian Ruane), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, October 2019, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Board Paper: Review of 1997 Guidance Note on Governance–A Proposed Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement” (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, 2018, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Impacts of Revenue Mobilization in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries (with Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro), Box 2.2, Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Fiscal Monitor: Debt: Use it Wisely (with Marialuz Moreno Badia, Nicoletta Batini, Victor Lledo, Lorenzo Forni, Samba Mbaye and Rossen Rozenov), Fiscal Monitor, October 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

World Economic Outlook: Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: the Role of External Factors (with Futoshi Narita, Andrea Presbitero and Felipe Zanna), Box 1.2, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

“The Impact of r-g on Euro-Area Government Spending Multipliers” (with Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2021, Journal of International Money and Finance, in press.

“How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area” (with Nicoletta Batini, Alessandro Cantelmo and Stefania Villa), 2021, Oxford Economics Papers, in press.

Macroeconomic impacts of non-resource revenue mobilization in CEMAC (with Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro), 2021, Applied Economics Letters, 28:9, 721-726.

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound (with Adalgiso Amendola, Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2020, European Economic Review, 127, 103480.

Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2020, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in press.

Investing in Public Infrastructure; Roads or Schools? (with Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li and Ricardo Marto), 2020, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in press.

Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt and Recession: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (with Nicoletta Batini and Stefania Villa), 2019, Journal of Macroeconomics, 62, 103044.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Joe Pearlman), 2019, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(3), 1166-120.

"Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods" (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2018, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48.

Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending (with Stefania Villa), 2018, Economic Inquiry, 56(1), 460-482.

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model (with Shu-Chun S. Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna), 2016, Economic Modelling, 52, 630-649.

Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective (with Mauro Costantini and Matteo Fragetta), 2014, European Economic Review, 70, 337–349.

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery (with Cristiano Cantore and Paul Levine), 2014, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(3), 669-701.

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships (with Stefania Villa), 2014, Economic Inquiry, 52(2), 696-712.

Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective (with Matteo Fragetta), 2013, Empirical Economics, 45(2), 831-844.

A Fiscal Stimulus with Deep Habits and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Bo Yang), 2012, Economics Letters, 117(1), 348-353.

An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Yunus Aksoy), 2012, Economics Letters, 114(1), 64-68.

The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR models: a Graphical Modelling Approach (with Matteo Fragetta), 2011, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58(4), 537-566.

US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output (with Yunus Aksoy), 2011, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 221-236.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa (with Rafael Portillo), in Berg, A. and Portillo, R. (Editors), 2018, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oxford: Oxford University Press.