Jonathan David Ostry

Last Updated: December 07, 2018

Jonathan Ostry

Jonathan D. Ostry is Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund and a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). His recent responsibilities include leading staff teams on: IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercises on global systemic macrofinancial risks; vulnerabilities exercises for advanced and emerging market countries; multilateral exchange rate surveillance, including the work of CGER, the Fund’s Consultative Group of Exchange Rates, and EBA, the External Balance Assessment; international financial architecture and reform of the IMF’s lending toolkit; capital account management (capital controls and prudential tools to manage capital inflows) and financial globalization issues; fiscal sustainability issues; and the nexus between income inequality and economic growth. Past positions include leading the division that produces the IMF’s flagship multilateral surveillance publication, the World Economic Outlook, and leading country teams on Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore. Mr. Ostry is the author of a number of books on international macro policy issues, including, Taming the Tide of Capital Flows (MIT Press, 2017), and Confronting Inequality (Columbia University Press, 2018) and numerous articles in scholarly journals. His work has been widely cited in print and electronic media, including the BBC, the Economist, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Business Week, and National Public Radio. His work on inequality and unsustainable growth has also been cited in remarks made by President Barack Obama. He earned his B.A. (with distinction) from Queen's University (Canada) at age 18, and went on to earn a B.A. and M.A. from Oxford University (Balliol College), and graduate degrees from the London School of Economics (M.Sc., 1984) and the University Chicago (Ph.D., 1988). He is listed in Who's Who in Economics (2003).

Email: JOSTRY@imf.org

Education:

Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1988

M.A., Oxford University, 1988

M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1984

B.A., Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Oxford University, 1983

B.A. (with Distinction), Economics, Queen’s University, 1981


Previous Experience:

International Monetary Fund, Research Department:
Deputy Director, Research Department, 2006-
Senior Advisor, Research Department, 2004-06
Assistant Director (headed the World Economic Studies division which produces the semi- annual World Economic Outlook), 2002-03

International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department:
Assistant Director/Division Chief/Advisor, 1998-2002 (led country teams on Japan, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand)
Deputy Division Chief/Senior Economist (Thailand desk), 1995–98

International Monetary Fund, Research and European Departments:
Economist (RES), 1988-89 & 1990-95, Economist (EUR), 1989–90

University of Chicago: Department of Economics, Instructor, 1987–88


Professional Activities:

Member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda/Global Future Councils on Inclusive Growth/Social Inclusion/Economic Progress; Member of the Advisory Board of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report


Awards and Honors:

IMF Recognition Award for work on Management of Capital Flows, 2013

IMF Recognition Award for the Reform of Nonconcessional Financing Facilities, 2010

Listed in Who's Who in Economics, 2003

Pew Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1986–88

University of Chicago Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88

Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88

Mackenzie King Fellowship, University of Chicago, 1984

Commonwealth Scholarship, London School of Economics, 1983–84

Commonwealth Scholarship, Oxford University, 1981–83

Undergraduate Medallist, Queen’s University, 1981

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants , Working Paper No. 2021/018 , January 29, 2021

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures , Working Paper No. 20/158 , August 07, 2020

The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic , Working Paper No. 20/159 , August 07, 2020

The Political Costs of Reforms : Fear or Reality? , October 18, 2019

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs , Working Paper No. 19/9 , January 15, 2019

Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/83 , April 06, 2018

Boosting Fiscal Space : The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities , Departmental Paper No.18/04 , March 14, 2018

Growth-Equity Trade-offs in Structural Reforms , Working Paper No. 18/5 , January 05, 2018

Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate , Working Paper No. 17/183 , August 04, 2017

A Tie That Binds : Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies , Working Paper No. 17/130 , June 08, 2017

Managing the Tide : How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows? , Working Paper No. 17/69 , March 27, 2017

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence , Working Paper No. 15/226 , October 23, 2015

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015

Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth , Staff Discussion Notes No. 14/2 , February 17, 2014

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment , Working Paper No. 14/11 , January 24, 2014

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them , Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/11 , December 12, 2013

Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/10 , September 07, 2012

Two Targets, Two Instruments , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/1 , February 29, 2012

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s , Working Paper No. 12/34 , January 01, 2012

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth : Two Sides of the Same Coin? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8 , April 08, 2011

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth : Two Sides of the Same Coin? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8 , April 08, 2011

Managing Capital Inflows : What Tools to Use? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6 , April 05, 2011

Managing Capital Inflows : What Tools to Use? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6 , April 05, 2011

Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System , Occasional Paper No. 270 , March 15, 2011

Fiscal Space , Staff Position Note No. 2010/11 , September 01, 2010

Macrofinancial Linkages : Trends, Crises, and Policies , August 25, 2010

Capital Inflows , Staff Position Note No. 2010/4 , February 19, 2010

Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries , Occasional Paper No. 268 , October 15, 2009

Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries : Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries , Staff Position Note No. 2009/8 , April 23, 2009

Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries : Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries , Staff Position Note No. 2009/8 , April 23, 2009

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization , Occasional Paper No. 264 , December 16, 2008

A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality , Working Paper No. 08/236 , October 01, 2008

Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies , Occasional Paper No. 261 , April 07, 2008

What Makes Growth Sustained? , Working Paper No. 08/59 , March 01, 2008

Country Insurance : The Role of Domestic Policies , Occasional Paper No. 254 , April 10, 2007

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa , Working Paper No. 07/52 , March 01, 2007

International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"? , Working Paper No. 07/56 , March 01, 2007

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach , Working Paper No. 06/67 , March 01, 2006

Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention , Working Paper No. 05/206 , November 01, 2005

Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries , Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/6 , October 01, 2005

Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? , Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/5 , April 01, 2005

Japan's Lost Decade : Policies for Economic Revival , February 13, 2003

Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries - Are they a Problem? , Working Paper No. 97/51 , April 01, 1997

Does the Exchange Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth? , Economic Issues No. 2 , September 12, 1996

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows Within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements , Working Paper No. 95/142 , December 01, 1995

Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? , Working Paper No. 95/121 , November 01, 1995

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison , Working Paper No. 95/3 , January 01, 1995

Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation , Working Paper No. 94/136 , November 01, 1994

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry , Working Paper No. 94/80 , June 01, 1994

Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 94/8 , January 01, 1994

Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth - A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand , Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17 , November 02, 1993

Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 93/70 , August 01, 1993

Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries? , Working Paper No. 93/34 , April 01, 1993

Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries , Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2 , February 08, 1993

Structural and Macroeconomic Determinants of the Output Decline in Poland: 1990-91 , Working Paper No. 92/86 , October 01, 1992

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account , Working Paper No. 92/72 , September 01, 1992

External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule , Working Paper No. 92/75 , September 01, 1992

The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania , Working Paper No. 92/59 , July 01, 1992

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/100 , October 01, 1991

Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? , Working Paper No. 91/68 , July 01, 1991

Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/29 , March 01, 1991

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/3 , January 01, 1991

IMF Survey Articles

Who’s Driving Financial Globalization?, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007

Putting Financial Globalization to Work, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Economic Gains from Gender Inclusion: Even Greater than you Thought (with Christine Lagarde)

All Hands on Deck: Confronting the Challenges of Capital Flows, IMF Direct, August 2017

The IMF’s Work on Inequality: Bridging Research and Reality, IMF Direct, February 2017

Are Capital Flows Expansionary or Contractionary? It Depends What Kind, with Olivier Blanchard, IMF Direct, December 2015

When is Repaying Public Debt Not of the Essence? IMF Direct, June 2015

Managing Capital Flows in Frontier Economies, IMF Direct, April 2015

Treating Inequality with Redistribution: Is the Cure Worse than the Disease? IMF Direct, February 2014

International Policy Coordination: The Loch Ness Monster, with Olivier Blanchard and Atish Ghosh, IMF Direct, December 2013

Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? IMF Direct, September 2012

The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation Targeting, IMF Direct, February 2012

Warning! Inequality May Be Hazardous to Your Growth, IMF Direct, April 2011

Watch This (Fiscal) Space: Assessing Room for Fiscal Maneuver in Advanced Countries, IMF Direct, September 2010

F&D articles

Growth and Inclusion? With the Right Policies, Countries Can Pursue Both Objectives, Finance and Development, June 2018

Neoliberalism: Oversold? with co-authors, Finance and Development, June 2016

Measure to Measure, Finance and Development, September 2014

Equality and Efficiency: Trade-off or Win-win? Finance and Development, September 2011

Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime, Finance and Development, December 2009

Anticipating the Next Crisis, Finance and Development, September 2009

Levers for Growth: Policy Lessons from Earlier Bouts of Growth in Developing Countries, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, Finance and Development, March 2006

Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries, with Carmen Reinhart, Finance and Development, December 1995

Are Growth Strategies in East Asia Relevant for New Zealand? Finance and Development, March 1994

Review of On Exchange Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Finance and Development, December, 1993

Targeting the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries, Finance and Development, March 1993

Review of Macroeconomic Policy by Robert J. Barro, Finance and Development, March 1991

Books

Confronting Inequality: How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth, co-authored, with Foreword by Joe Stiglitz, (Columbia University Press) 2018.

Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, with Robert Shiller (eds.), 2018 (CEPR Press).

Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide, with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, (MIT Press) 2017.

Capital Controls, with Atish Ghosh and Mahvash Qureshi (eds.), 2015 (Edward Elgar Publishing).

Macro-Financial Linkages, with Simon Johnson (eds.), 2010 (International Monetary Fund).

Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, with Tim Callen (eds.), 2003 (International Monetary Fund).

Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, Second Edition, with Thomas Krueger and Chi-Wa Yuen (MIT Press, 1996).

Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, with Thomas Krueger (MIT Press, 1993).

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies (co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld and Mahvash Qureshi), Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019 (forthcoming)

Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth: New Evidence (co-authored), Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 23, pp. 259-305, September 2018

Managing Capital Outflows with Limited Reserves (co-authored), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 66(2), pp. 333-374, June 2018

Global Financial Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Perspective from Emerging Markets (co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld and Mahvash Qureshi), American Economic Review, Vol. 108(2), May 2018, pp. 499-504

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? (co-authored), 2017, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(4), pp. 792-815

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence (co-authored with Olivier Blanchard, Atish Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(3), pp. 563-585

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s (co-authored), 2017, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(2), pp. 308-364

Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary? with co-authors, 2016, American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 5, pp. 565-569

When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears? with co-authors, 2016, American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 5, pp. 581-585

On the Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, with co-author, 2016, Journal of International Money and Finance, pp. 25-40

Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies, with co-authors, 2015, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 60, pp. 172-196

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment, with co-authors, 2015, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 63, No. 1, pp. 238-276

Inequality and the Duration of Growth, 2015, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 147-157

Accounting for Emerging Market Countries’ International Reserves: Are Pacific Rim Countries Different? with co-authors, 2014, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 49, pp. 52–82

Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union, with co-authors, 2013, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34, pp. 131–163

Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2012, Economic Journal, Vol. 123, No. 566, pp. 4-30

Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows, with co-authors, 2012, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 407–421

What Makes Growth Sustained? with co-authors, 2012, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 98, No. 2, pp. 149–166

Managing Capital Flows, 2012, Asian Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 82–88

Capital Controls: When and Why? with co-authors, 2011, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 562-580

IMF Policy Advice to Emerging Market Economies during the 2008-2009 Crisis: New Fund or New Fundamentals? with co-authors, 2011, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 1–17

Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, 2010, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 119–171

Conseils aux Pays Emergents Sur La Crise Actuelle: Quoi de Neuf? Qu’est-ce qui a Changé? Pourquoi? with co-authors, 2009, Revue d’Économie Financière, No. 95, pp. 307–323

International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy Responsible? with Enrique Mendoza, 2008, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 1081–1093

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A ‘Fan-Chart’ Approach, with co-authors, 2006, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 401–425

Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? with Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2006

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving, and the Current Account, with co-author, 1997, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 121–139

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, with co-author, 1997, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 412–444

Accounting for China’s Growth Performance, with co-author, 1996, American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 2, pp. 224–228

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, with Carmen Reinhart and Masao Ogaki, 1996, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 38–71

The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach, with co-author, 1995, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 305–333

Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, with Joaquim Levy, 1995, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 375–397. Reprinted in France: Financial and Real Sector Issues, ed., Paul R. Masson, 1995 (International Monetary Fund)

Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 214–235

Government Purchases and Relative Prices in a Two-Country World, 1994, Economic Record, Vol. 70, No. 209, pp. 149–61

The Parallel Market Premium: Is It a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries? with co-author, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 55–75

An Empirical Analysis of the Output Decline in Three Eastern European Countries, with co-author, 1993, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 1–31

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from the Developing Countries, with Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 495–517

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1992, World Development, Vol. 20, No. 9, pp. 1325–1334

Trade Restrictions with Imported Intermediate Inputs: A Comment, Journal of Development Economics, 1992, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 403–405

Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? with co-author, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 58–78

An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs, with Andrew K. Rose, 1992, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 63–79

Terms of Trade Disturbances, Real Exchange Rates, and Welfare: The Role of Capital Controls and Labor Market Distortions, with Sebastian Edwards, 1992, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 20–34

Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 872–900

Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 447–479

Tariffs, Real Exchange Rates, and the Trade Balance in a Two-Country World, 1991, European Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 1127–1142

Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account, with Sebastian Edwards, 1990, Journal of International Monetary and Finance, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 206–219

Tariffs and the Current Account: The Role of Initial Distortions, 1990, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 348–356

The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework, 1988, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 541–573. Reprinted in Monetaria, July-September 1989

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Managing Capital Flows: Toward a Policy Vademecum, in Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank Balances, John B. Taylor, editor (Hoover Institution/Stanford University Press), 2019, forthcoming

Are New Economic Policy Rules Desirable to Mitigate Rising National Inequalities (co-authored), in International Policy Rules and Inequality: Implications for Global Economic Governance, edited by Jose Antonio Ocampo (Columbia University Press, New York), 2018

Managing the Exchange Rate in the Face of Volatile Capital Flows, pp. 129-147 in Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics: Lessons from the Crisis and Beyond, edited by Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Palgrave MacMillan, 2016)

Inequality and the Fragility of Growth, in Issues in Inequality, edited by Joseph Stiglitz and Kaushik Basu (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016)

Managing Capital Flows: Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Intervention, in Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization, edited by Joseph Stiglitz and Refet Gurkaynak (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015)

Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? In Managing Capital Flows edited by Bruno Carrasco, Subir Gokarn, and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (Oxford University Press, 2014)

Commentary on “Macroprudential Policies in a Global Perspective” by Olivier Jeanne in Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy edited by Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2013)

Managing Capital Inflows: Old and New Debates in The Great Recession: Lessons for Central Bankers , edited by Stanley Fischer et al. (MIT Press, 2013).

Good Money, Bad Money: The Effects of Large Capital Inflows and the Conditions Under Which Capital Controls Might Be Justified in Shaping Globalization—New Trends in Foreign Direct Investment (Verlag Bertelsmann, 2012).

Are Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries a Problem? in Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in Eastern Europe, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Trade and Payments in Transforming Economies of Central and Eastern Europe, edited by D. Salvatore (North Holland, 1996).

Common Causes or Structural Adjustment? Output Decline in Eastern Europe with Special Reference to Poland, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Output Decline in Eastern Europe: Unavoidable, External Influence or Homemade?, edited by Janos Gacs, Robert Holzmann and George Winkler (Kluwer Academic Press, 1995)

Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, with Eduardo Borensztein and Dimitri Demekas, in Eastern Europe in Transition: From Recession to Growth? (World Bank, 1994) edited by Guillermo Calvo and Alan Gelb.

External Shocks and Inflation under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, with Peter Montiel, in The Exchange Rate and the Economy (Bank of Canada, 1993)

Other Published Materials

The Macroeconomic Benefits of Gender Diversity, with Christine Lagarde, VoxEU, 5 December, 2018

Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, with Robert Shiller, VoxEU, March 16, 2018

Growth-Equity Trade-Offs in Structural Reforms, VoxEU, February 19, 2018

Inclusive Growth or Else, with co-authors, Project Syndicate, February 5, 2018

A New Narrative on Income Inequality and Growth, Policy Options (Institute for Research on Public Policy), October 27, 2017

Making Globalisation More Inclusive: A Way Forward, with co-authors, VoxEU, October 17, 2017

Trilemma Redux: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies, with co-authors, VoxEU, August 11, 2017

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Some New Evidence, with co-authors, VoxEU, May 12, 2017

Macro Effects of Capital Inflows: Capital Type Matters, with co-authors, VoxEu, November 26, 2015.

Don’t Sweat the Debt if Fiscal Space is Ample, with co-authors, VoxEU, June 22, 2015

Managing the Exchange Rate, with co-authors, VoxEU, April 2, 2014

Redistribution, Inequality, and Sustainable Growth, with co-authors, VoxEU, March 6, 2014

We Do Not Have to Live with the Scourge of Inequality, Financial Times Op-Ed, March 3, 2014

Obstacles to International Macro Policy Coordination, with Olivier Blanchard and Atish Ghosh, VoxEU, December 20, 2013

The Multilateral Approach to Capital Controls, with Olivier Blanchard, VoxEU, December 11, 2012

Are Concerns About Spillovers from Policies that Affect Capital Flows Overdone? Financial Times, October 2, 2012

On Inflation Targeting and Forex Intervention: Are Two Targets Better Than One? VoxEU, May 27, 2012

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, VoxEU, February 6, 2012

Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2011, NBER Working Paper 16782

How Inequality Damages Economies, with co-author, Foreign Affairs, January 2012

Are there 'Intelligent' Capital Controls?, East Asia Forum, June 2011

Fiscal Space in Advanced Countries, with Atish Ghosh and Enrique Mendoza, VoxEU, March 8, 2011

Instability from Rigidity: Dealing with the Risks to Global Growth, with Simon Johnson, Japan Times, February 2008

Surviving the Great Capital Flood, with Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate, November 2007

Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? with co-authors, 1997, NBER Working Paper 5874

Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth—A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand, 1993, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17

Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, 1993, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2

Jonathan Ostry

Jonathan D. Ostry is Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund and a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). His recent responsibilities include leading staff teams on: IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercises on global systemic macrofinancial risks; vulnerabilities exercises for advanced and emerging market countries; multilateral exchange rate surveillance, including the work of CGER, the Fund’s Consultative Group of Exchange Rates, and EBA, the External Balance Assessment; international financial architecture and reform of the IMF’s lending toolkit; capital account management (capital controls and prudential tools to manage capital inflows) and financial globalization issues; fiscal sustainability issues; and the nexus between income inequality and economic growth. Past positions include leading the division that produces the IMF’s flagship multilateral surveillance publication, the World Economic Outlook, and leading country teams on Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore. Mr. Ostry is the author of a number of books on international macro policy issues, including, Taming the Tide of Capital Flows (MIT Press, 2017), and Confronting Inequality (Columbia University Press, 2018) and numerous articles in scholarly journals. His work has been widely cited in print and electronic media, including the BBC, the Economist, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Business Week, and National Public Radio. His work on inequality and unsustainable growth has also been cited in remarks made by President Barack Obama. He earned his B.A. (with distinction) from Queen's University (Canada) at age 18, and went on to earn a B.A. and M.A. from Oxford University (Balliol College), and graduate degrees from the London School of Economics (M.Sc., 1984) and the University Chicago (Ph.D., 1988). He is listed in Who's Who in Economics (2003).

Email: JOSTRY@imf.org

Education:

Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1988

M.A., Oxford University, 1988

M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1984

B.A., Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Oxford University, 1983

B.A. (with Distinction), Economics, Queen’s University, 1981


Previous Experience:

International Monetary Fund, Research Department:
Deputy Director, Research Department, 2006-
Senior Advisor, Research Department, 2004-06
Assistant Director (headed the World Economic Studies division which produces the semi- annual World Economic Outlook), 2002-03

International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Department:
Assistant Director/Division Chief/Advisor, 1998-2002 (led country teams on Japan, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand)
Deputy Division Chief/Senior Economist (Thailand desk), 1995–98

International Monetary Fund, Research and European Departments:
Economist (RES), 1988-89 & 1990-95, Economist (EUR), 1989–90

University of Chicago: Department of Economics, Instructor, 1987–88


Professional Activities:

Member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda/Global Future Councils on Inclusive Growth/Social Inclusion/Economic Progress; Member of the Advisory Board of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report


Awards and Honors:

IMF Recognition Award for work on Management of Capital Flows, 2013

IMF Recognition Award for the Reform of Nonconcessional Financing Facilities, 2010

Listed in Who's Who in Economics, 2003

Pew Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1986–88

University of Chicago Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88

Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowships, 1984–88

Mackenzie King Fellowship, University of Chicago, 1984

Commonwealth Scholarship, London School of Economics, 1983–84

Commonwealth Scholarship, Oxford University, 1981–83

Undergraduate Medallist, Queen’s University, 1981

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants , Working Paper No. 2021/018 , January 29, 2021

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures , Working Paper No. 20/158 , August 07, 2020

The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic , Working Paper No. 20/159 , August 07, 2020

The Political Costs of Reforms : Fear or Reality? , October 18, 2019

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs , Working Paper No. 19/9 , January 15, 2019

Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data , Working Paper No. 18/83 , April 06, 2018

Boosting Fiscal Space : The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities , Departmental Paper No.18/04 , March 14, 2018

Growth-Equity Trade-offs in Structural Reforms , Working Paper No. 18/5 , January 05, 2018

Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate , Working Paper No. 17/183 , August 04, 2017

A Tie That Binds : Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies , Working Paper No. 17/130 , June 08, 2017

Managing the Tide : How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows? , Working Paper No. 17/69 , March 27, 2017

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence , Working Paper No. 15/226 , October 23, 2015

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015

Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth , Staff Discussion Notes No. 14/2 , February 17, 2014

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment , Working Paper No. 14/11 , January 24, 2014

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them , Staff Discussion Notes No. 13/11 , December 12, 2013

Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/10 , September 07, 2012

Two Targets, Two Instruments , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/1 , February 29, 2012

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s , Working Paper No. 12/34 , January 01, 2012

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth : Two Sides of the Same Coin? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8 , April 08, 2011

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth : Two Sides of the Same Coin? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/8 , April 08, 2011

Managing Capital Inflows : What Tools to Use? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6 , April 05, 2011

Managing Capital Inflows : What Tools to Use? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/6 , April 05, 2011

Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System , Occasional Paper No. 270 , March 15, 2011

Fiscal Space , Staff Position Note No. 2010/11 , September 01, 2010

Macrofinancial Linkages : Trends, Crises, and Policies , August 25, 2010

Capital Inflows , Staff Position Note No. 2010/4 , February 19, 2010

Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries , Occasional Paper No. 268 , October 15, 2009

Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries : Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries , Staff Position Note No. 2009/8 , April 23, 2009

Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries : Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries , Staff Position Note No. 2009/8 , April 23, 2009

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization , Occasional Paper No. 264 , December 16, 2008

A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality , Working Paper No. 08/236 , October 01, 2008

Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies , Occasional Paper No. 261 , April 07, 2008

What Makes Growth Sustained? , Working Paper No. 08/59 , March 01, 2008

Country Insurance : The Role of Domestic Policies , Occasional Paper No. 254 , April 10, 2007

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa , Working Paper No. 07/52 , March 01, 2007

International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"? , Working Paper No. 07/56 , March 01, 2007

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach , Working Paper No. 06/67 , March 01, 2006

Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention , Working Paper No. 05/206 , November 01, 2005

Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries , Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/6 , October 01, 2005

Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? , Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/5 , April 01, 2005

Japan's Lost Decade : Policies for Economic Revival , February 13, 2003

Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries - Are they a Problem? , Working Paper No. 97/51 , April 01, 1997

Does the Exchange Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth? , Economic Issues No. 2 , September 12, 1996

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows Within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements , Working Paper No. 95/142 , December 01, 1995

Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? , Working Paper No. 95/121 , November 01, 1995

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison , Working Paper No. 95/3 , January 01, 1995

Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation , Working Paper No. 94/136 , November 01, 1994

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry , Working Paper No. 94/80 , June 01, 1994

Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 94/8 , January 01, 1994

Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth - A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand , Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17 , November 02, 1993

Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 93/70 , August 01, 1993

Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries? , Working Paper No. 93/34 , April 01, 1993

Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries , Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2 , February 08, 1993

Structural and Macroeconomic Determinants of the Output Decline in Poland: 1990-91 , Working Paper No. 92/86 , October 01, 1992

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account , Working Paper No. 92/72 , September 01, 1992

External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule , Working Paper No. 92/75 , September 01, 1992

The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania , Working Paper No. 92/59 , July 01, 1992

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/100 , October 01, 1991

Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? , Working Paper No. 91/68 , July 01, 1991

Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/29 , March 01, 1991

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries , Working Paper No. 91/3 , January 01, 1991

IMF Survey Articles

Who’s Driving Financial Globalization?, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007

Putting Financial Globalization to Work, IMF Survey Magazine, August 2007

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Economic Gains from Gender Inclusion: Even Greater than you Thought (with Christine Lagarde)

All Hands on Deck: Confronting the Challenges of Capital Flows, IMF Direct, August 2017

The IMF’s Work on Inequality: Bridging Research and Reality, IMF Direct, February 2017

Are Capital Flows Expansionary or Contractionary? It Depends What Kind, with Olivier Blanchard, IMF Direct, December 2015

When is Repaying Public Debt Not of the Essence? IMF Direct, June 2015

Managing Capital Flows in Frontier Economies, IMF Direct, April 2015

Treating Inequality with Redistribution: Is the Cure Worse than the Disease? IMF Direct, February 2014

International Policy Coordination: The Loch Ness Monster, with Olivier Blanchard and Atish Ghosh, IMF Direct, December 2013

Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? IMF Direct, September 2012

The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation Targeting, IMF Direct, February 2012

Warning! Inequality May Be Hazardous to Your Growth, IMF Direct, April 2011

Watch This (Fiscal) Space: Assessing Room for Fiscal Maneuver in Advanced Countries, IMF Direct, September 2010

F&D articles

Growth and Inclusion? With the Right Policies, Countries Can Pursue Both Objectives, Finance and Development, June 2018

Neoliberalism: Oversold? with co-authors, Finance and Development, June 2016

Measure to Measure, Finance and Development, September 2014

Equality and Efficiency: Trade-off or Win-win? Finance and Development, September 2011

Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime, Finance and Development, December 2009

Anticipating the Next Crisis, Finance and Development, September 2009

Levers for Growth: Policy Lessons from Earlier Bouts of Growth in Developing Countries, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, Finance and Development, March 2006

Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries, with Carmen Reinhart, Finance and Development, December 1995

Are Growth Strategies in East Asia Relevant for New Zealand? Finance and Development, March 1994

Review of On Exchange Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel, Finance and Development, December, 1993

Targeting the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries, Finance and Development, March 1993

Review of Macroeconomic Policy by Robert J. Barro, Finance and Development, March 1991

Books

Confronting Inequality: How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth, co-authored, with Foreword by Joe Stiglitz, (Columbia University Press) 2018.

Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, with Robert Shiller (eds.), 2018 (CEPR Press).

Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide, with Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, (MIT Press) 2017.

Capital Controls, with Atish Ghosh and Mahvash Qureshi (eds.), 2015 (Edward Elgar Publishing).

Macro-Financial Linkages, with Simon Johnson (eds.), 2010 (International Monetary Fund).

Japan's Lost Decade: Policies for Economic Revival, with Tim Callen (eds.), 2003 (International Monetary Fund).

Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, Second Edition, with Thomas Krueger and Chi-Wa Yuen (MIT Press, 1996).

Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics, with Thomas Krueger (MIT Press, 1993).

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies (co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld and Mahvash Qureshi), Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019 (forthcoming)

Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth: New Evidence (co-authored), Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 23, pp. 259-305, September 2018

Managing Capital Outflows with Limited Reserves (co-authored), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 66(2), pp. 333-374, June 2018

Global Financial Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Perspective from Emerging Markets (co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld and Mahvash Qureshi), American Economic Review, Vol. 108(2), May 2018, pp. 499-504

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? (co-authored), 2017, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(4), pp. 792-815

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence (co-authored with Olivier Blanchard, Atish Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(3), pp. 563-585

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s (co-authored), 2017, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 65(2), pp. 308-364

Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary? with co-authors, 2016, American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 5, pp. 565-569

When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears? with co-authors, 2016, American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 5, pp. 581-585

On the Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, with co-author, 2016, Journal of International Money and Finance, pp. 25-40

Two Targets, Two Instruments: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies, with co-authors, 2015, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 60, pp. 172-196

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment, with co-authors, 2015, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 63, No. 1, pp. 238-276

Inequality and the Duration of Growth, 2015, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 147-157

Accounting for Emerging Market Countries’ International Reserves: Are Pacific Rim Countries Different? with co-authors, 2014, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 49, pp. 52–82

Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union, with co-authors, 2013, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34, pp. 131–163

Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2012, Economic Journal, Vol. 123, No. 566, pp. 4-30

Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows, with co-authors, 2012, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2, pp. 407–421

What Makes Growth Sustained? with co-authors, 2012, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 98, No. 2, pp. 149–166

Managing Capital Flows, 2012, Asian Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 82–88

Capital Controls: When and Why? with co-authors, 2011, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 562-580

IMF Policy Advice to Emerging Market Economies during the 2008-2009 Crisis: New Fund or New Fundamentals? with co-authors, 2011, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 1–17

Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints, with Simon Johnson and Arvind Subramanian, 2010, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 119–171

Conseils aux Pays Emergents Sur La Crise Actuelle: Quoi de Neuf? Qu’est-ce qui a Changé? Pourquoi? with co-authors, 2009, Revue d’Économie Financière, No. 95, pp. 307–323

International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy Responsible? with Enrique Mendoza, 2008, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 1081–1093

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A ‘Fan-Chart’ Approach, with co-authors, 2006, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 401–425

Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? with Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2006

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving, and the Current Account, with co-author, 1997, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 121–139

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements, with co-author, 1997, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 412–444

Accounting for China’s Growth Performance, with co-author, 1996, American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 2, pp. 224–228

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, with Carmen Reinhart and Masao Ogaki, 1996, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 38–71

The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach, with co-author, 1995, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 305–333

Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation, with Joaquim Levy, 1995, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 375–397. Reprinted in France: Financial and Real Sector Issues, ed., Paul R. Masson, 1995 (International Monetary Fund)

Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 214–235

Government Purchases and Relative Prices in a Two-Country World, 1994, Economic Record, Vol. 70, No. 209, pp. 149–61

The Parallel Market Premium: Is It a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries? with co-author, 1994, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 55–75

An Empirical Analysis of the Output Decline in Three Eastern European Countries, with co-author, 1993, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 1–31

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from the Developing Countries, with Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 495–517

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1992, World Development, Vol. 20, No. 9, pp. 1325–1334

Trade Restrictions with Imported Intermediate Inputs: A Comment, Journal of Development Economics, 1992, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 403–405

Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Capital Controls: Can Money Provide a Nominal Anchor? with co-author, 1992, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 58–78

An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs, with Andrew K. Rose, 1992, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 63–79

Terms of Trade Disturbances, Real Exchange Rates, and Welfare: The Role of Capital Controls and Labor Market Distortions, with Sebastian Edwards, 1992, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 20–34

Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, with co-author, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 872–900

Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs, 1991, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 447–479

Tariffs, Real Exchange Rates, and the Trade Balance in a Two-Country World, 1991, European Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 1127–1142

Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account, with Sebastian Edwards, 1990, Journal of International Monetary and Finance, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 206–219

Tariffs and the Current Account: The Role of Initial Distortions, 1990, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 348–356

The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework, 1988, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 541–573. Reprinted in Monetaria, July-September 1989

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Managing Capital Flows: Toward a Policy Vademecum, in Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank Balances, John B. Taylor, editor (Hoover Institution/Stanford University Press), 2019, forthcoming

Are New Economic Policy Rules Desirable to Mitigate Rising National Inequalities (co-authored), in International Policy Rules and Inequality: Implications for Global Economic Governance, edited by Jose Antonio Ocampo (Columbia University Press, New York), 2018

Managing the Exchange Rate in the Face of Volatile Capital Flows, pp. 129-147 in Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics: Lessons from the Crisis and Beyond, edited by Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Palgrave MacMillan, 2016)

Inequality and the Fragility of Growth, in Issues in Inequality, edited by Joseph Stiglitz and Kaushik Basu (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016)

Managing Capital Flows: Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Intervention, in Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization, edited by Joseph Stiglitz and Refet Gurkaynak (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015)

Capital Controls: When Are Multilateral Considerations of the Essence? In Managing Capital Flows edited by Bruno Carrasco, Subir Gokarn, and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (Oxford University Press, 2014)

Commentary on “Macroprudential Policies in a Global Perspective” by Olivier Jeanne in Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy edited by Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2013)

Managing Capital Inflows: Old and New Debates in The Great Recession: Lessons for Central Bankers , edited by Stanley Fischer et al. (MIT Press, 2013).

Good Money, Bad Money: The Effects of Large Capital Inflows and the Conditions Under Which Capital Controls Might Be Justified in Shaping Globalization—New Trends in Foreign Direct Investment (Verlag Bertelsmann, 2012).

Are Current Account Imbalances in ASEAN Countries a Problem? in Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in Eastern Europe, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Trade and Payments in Transforming Economies of Central and Eastern Europe, edited by D. Salvatore (North Holland, 1996).

Common Causes or Structural Adjustment? Output Decline in Eastern Europe with Special Reference to Poland, with Eduardo Borensztein, in Output Decline in Eastern Europe: Unavoidable, External Influence or Homemade?, edited by Janos Gacs, Robert Holzmann and George Winkler (Kluwer Academic Press, 1995)

Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, with Eduardo Borensztein and Dimitri Demekas, in Eastern Europe in Transition: From Recession to Growth? (World Bank, 1994) edited by Guillermo Calvo and Alan Gelb.

External Shocks and Inflation under a Real Exchange Rate Rule, with Peter Montiel, in The Exchange Rate and the Economy (Bank of Canada, 1993)

Other Published Materials

The Macroeconomic Benefits of Gender Diversity, with Christine Lagarde, VoxEU, 5 December, 2018

Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, with Robert Shiller, VoxEU, March 16, 2018

Growth-Equity Trade-Offs in Structural Reforms, VoxEU, February 19, 2018

Inclusive Growth or Else, with co-authors, Project Syndicate, February 5, 2018

A New Narrative on Income Inequality and Growth, Policy Options (Institute for Research on Public Policy), October 27, 2017

Making Globalisation More Inclusive: A Way Forward, with co-authors, VoxEU, October 17, 2017

Trilemma Redux: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies, with co-authors, VoxEU, August 11, 2017

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Some New Evidence, with co-authors, VoxEU, May 12, 2017

Macro Effects of Capital Inflows: Capital Type Matters, with co-authors, VoxEu, November 26, 2015.

Don’t Sweat the Debt if Fiscal Space is Ample, with co-authors, VoxEU, June 22, 2015

Managing the Exchange Rate, with co-authors, VoxEU, April 2, 2014

Redistribution, Inequality, and Sustainable Growth, with co-authors, VoxEU, March 6, 2014

We Do Not Have to Live with the Scourge of Inequality, Financial Times Op-Ed, March 3, 2014

Obstacles to International Macro Policy Coordination, with Olivier Blanchard and Atish Ghosh, VoxEU, December 20, 2013

The Multilateral Approach to Capital Controls, with Olivier Blanchard, VoxEU, December 11, 2012

Are Concerns About Spillovers from Policies that Affect Capital Flows Overdone? Financial Times, October 2, 2012

On Inflation Targeting and Forex Intervention: Are Two Targets Better Than One? VoxEU, May 27, 2012

Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s, VoxEU, February 6, 2012

Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, with co-authors, 2011, NBER Working Paper 16782

How Inequality Damages Economies, with co-author, Foreign Affairs, January 2012

Are there 'Intelligent' Capital Controls?, East Asia Forum, June 2011

Fiscal Space in Advanced Countries, with Atish Ghosh and Enrique Mendoza, VoxEU, March 8, 2011

Instability from Rigidity: Dealing with the Risks to Global Growth, with Simon Johnson, Japan Times, February 2008

Surviving the Great Capital Flood, with Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate, November 2007

Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? with co-authors, 1997, NBER Working Paper 5874

Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth—A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand, 1993, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/17

Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries, 1993, Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment No. 93/2