Luca Antonio Ricci

Last Updated: March 30, 2020

Division Chief, and Mission Chief for Chile, International Monetary Fund.
CEPR Research Fellow.

Email: LRICCI@imf.org

Fluent In: French, Italian, Spanish.

Education:

1996: Ph.D. in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.

1993-1995: Visiting Fellow, Economics Department, Harvard University.

1993: M.A in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.

1990: B.A. in Economics, University of Rome La Sapienza, Italy.


Previous Experience:

2010-2011 – Barclays Capital, Managing Director, Head of International Economic Research.

1996-2010: International Monetary Fund - Research Department (2004-2010), African Department (2001-2004), Research Department (1998-2001), Middle Eastern Department (1997-1998), Research Department (1996-97).

1995-1996: Researcher in international economics at the University of Konstanz, under the Human Capital Mobility Program of the European Union.


Referee Activities:

American Economic Review; E-conomics; Economic Change and Restructuring; Economic Journal; Economie et Prevision; European Journal of Political Economy; International Economic Review; International Review of Economics and Finance; Journal of Comparative Economics; Journal of Economic Growth; Journal of International Economics; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Urban Economics; Open Economies Review; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Review of International Economics; Rivista di Politica Economica; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics; Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.


Editorial Activities:

Associate Editor of Economie Internationale


Teaching:

2018-19: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2016-17: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2014-15: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2012-13:Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "International Financial Flows to Developing Countries and Emerging Markets: Determinants, Impact and Policy Challenges (A Practitioners’ Perspective)" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2004, May: Visiting professor in International Finance at Luiss University (Rome) and University of Bari, Italy.

1991-1993: Teaching Assistant in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva.


Others:

CONFERENCE ORGANIZATION

Organized jointly with the Minister of Finance of Chile a two-day conference on "Enhancing Chile's Fiscal Frameworks: Lessons from the Domestic and International Experience", Jan. 17-18, 2019, with the participation of Chilean authorities from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, Academics, ex-Ministers and ex-Governors, representative from the government of New Zealand, IMF, and IADB. (https://www.hacienda.cl/sala-de-prensa/conferencias-y-seminarios/conferencia-fiscal-ministerio-de.html; https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/presidente-del-banco-central-sugiere-fortalecer-la-rendicion-cuentas-regla-fiscal/490116/; https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-politica/gobierno/larrain-y-el-fmi-analizaron-propuestas-de-perfeccionamiento-al-marco/2019-01-18/182827.html; http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticias/noticias.asp?id=539146)

Organized, jointly with IMF colleagues, an IMF Annual Meeting Seminar on "Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries: Rising Vulnerabilities and the Path to Resilience", October 2017. (https://www.imf.org/external/POS_Meetings/SeminarDetails.aspx?SeminarId=260)

Organized jointly with the Minister of Finance of Panama the roundtable discussion on "Panama long-term growth prospects and opportunities", Dec 4 2014, with the participation of country authorities, private sector representatives, World Bank, and Iadb (see http://www.panamaamerica.com.pa/economia/economia-panamena-seguira-creciendo-si-el-estado-le-hace-frente-los-cabos-sueltos-955226).


Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Public Finance

Open Economy Macroeconomics

International Trade

International Finance

Economic Modeling

Development Economics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact , Working Paper No. 2021/077 , March 18, 2021

The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations , Working Paper No. 20/220 , October 30, 2020

Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile , Working Paper No. 20/100 , June 19, 2020

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology , Working Paper No. 19/192 , September 13, 2019

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings , Working Paper No. 19/162 , July 26, 2019

Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads? , Working Paper No. 16/246 , December 22, 2016

Trilemma or Dilemma : Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates , Working Paper No. 16/75 , March 23, 2016

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology , Working Paper No. 13/272 , December 31, 2013

Country Insurance Using Financial Instruments , Working Paper No. 11/169 , July 01, 2011

Evidenceon Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Networks in the Export Performance of Firms , Working Paper No. 11/77 , April 01, 2011

External Performance in Low-Income Countries , Occasional Paper No. 272 , March 15, 2011

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility , Working Paper No. 10/259 , November 01, 2010

International Capital Flows and Development: Financial Openness Matters , Working Paper No. 10/235 , October 01, 2010

External Balance in Low Income Countries , Working Paper No. 09/221 , October 01, 2009

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation , Working Paper No. 09/34 , March 01, 2009

Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies , Occasional Paper No. 261 , April 07, 2008

Is There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants , Working Paper No. 08/109 , April 01, 2008

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa , Working Paper No. 08/48 , February 01, 2008

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective , Working Paper No. 08/13 , January 01, 2008

Post-Apartheid South Africa : The First Ten Years , January 12, 2006

Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link , Working Paper No. 05/223 , December 01, 2005

Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility? , Working Paper No. 04/189 , October 01, 2004

Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth? , Working Paper No. 04/135 , July 01, 2004

What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth? , Working Paper No. 04/15 , January 01, 2004

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa , Working Paper No. 03/44 , March 01, 2003

International Financial Integration and Economic Growth , Working Paper No. 02/145 , August 01, 2002

Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis , Working Paper No. 02/120 , July 01, 2002

External Debt and Growth , Working Paper No. 02/69 , April 01, 2002

Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory , Working Paper No. 02/32 , February 01, 2002

PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector , Working Paper No. 01/38 , March 01, 2001

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises , Working Paper No. 00/55 , March 01, 2000

Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration , Working Paper No. 98/9 , February 01, 1998

EMU, Adjustment, and Exchange Rate Variability , Working Paper No. 98/50 , January 01, 1998

Exchange Rate Regimes and Location , Working Paper No. 97/69 , June 01, 1997

IMF Country Reports

IMF Staff Mission Concludes Visit to Chile, June 19, 2019

Chile: Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation

Ecuador: Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument, 2018

Ecuador: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Panama: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Panama: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Selected Issue

Chile: 2018 Selected Issues Papers

Ecuador: 2015 Selected Issues Papers

Panama: 2015 Selected Issues Papers

Other Published Materials

Chile: IMF Mission Concludes Staff Visit, June 19, 2019

Chile: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2018 Article IV Mission

Statement at the WTO Balance-of-Payments Committee on Ecuador Balance of Payments needs, 2016

Statement at the WTO Balance-of-Payments Committee on Ecuador Balance of Payments needs, 2015

2013 IMF External Sector Report (part of a team)

2013 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology (managing the econometric exercise)

2013 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Data and Estimates from the Pilot Exercise (managing the econometric exercise)

2012 Pilot External Sector Report (part of a team)

2012 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology (part of a team, responsible for the Real Effective Exchange Rate module)

2012 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Data and Estimates from the Pilot Exercise (part of a team; responsible for the Real Effective Exchange Rate module)

"The Fund’s Mandate—Future Financing Role (main)", 2010, (part of a team)

"The Fund’s Mandate—Future Financing Role: The Current Lending Toolkit and Innovative Reform Options (annex)", 2010 (part of a team)

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa", 2008 (reprint from South African Journal of Economics) in Cottarelli, Ghosh, Milesi-Ferretti, and Tsangarides eds., Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance: A Collection of Empirical Studies, IMF.

"Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessments" (with Jaewoo Lee and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti), 2006 IMF Occasional Paper No.261.

"Review of Fund Facilities—Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options", 2009 (part of the team)

"Globalization: A Brief Overview" (w/ Julian Di Giovanni, Glenn Gottselig, Florence Jaumotte, and Stephen Tokarick), 2008, IMF Issues Brief

"Unemployment and the Labor Market" (with V. Arora), Ch.3 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, eds. Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"What Drives Saving in South Africa?" (joint with T. Harjes), Ch.4 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"South Africa’s Real Exchange Rate Performance", Ch.9 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"The Rand Crises of 1998 and 2001: What Have We Learned?" (with A. Bhundia), Ch.10 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"The Case for Building International Reserves" (with K. Hviding), Ch.11 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"Bringing Inflation Under Control", Ch.12 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"Exploring Determinants of Long-Term Interest Rates" (with F. Ahmed), Ch.13 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"External Debt and Growth" (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Finance and Development, June 2002, Volume 39:2.

"International Financial Integration and Developing Countries" (with H. Edison and T. Sloek), World Economic Outlook, October 2001, Chapter 4.

"Fiscal Improvement In Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last?" (with M. MacFarlan), World Economic Outlook, May 2001, Chapter 3.

"Transition: Experience and Policy Issues" (with P. Sturm and M. De Broeck), World Economic Outlook, October 2000, Chapter 3.

"How Can the Poorest Countries Catch Up?" (with J. Green and R. Salgado), World Economic Outlook, May 2000, Chapter 4.

"Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Performance, Impediments, and Policy Requirements", World Economic Outlook, October 1999, Chapter 6.

"International Financial Contagion" (with F. Caramazza and R. Salgado), World Economic Outlook, May 1999, Chapter 3.

"A Quantitative Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in South Africa", South Africa Selected Issues, 2005 Chapter 1, pp.5-17.

"The Case for Building International Reserves", South Africa Selected Issues, 2004 Chapter 3, pp.35-45.

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa", South Africa Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 1, pp.6-25.

An Analysis of Economic Growth in Swaziland", Swaziland Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 4, pp. 42-49.

"Real Effective Exchange Rate and Competitiveness in Swaziland", Swaziland Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 5, pp. 50-52.

"Treatment of Exchange Rate Issues in Bilateral Surveillance—A Stocktaking" (as part of the contributing taskforce), 2006.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?, forthcoming (w/ M. Hadzi-Vaskov), Journal of Money Credit and Banking

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility, 2015 (w/ P. Benigno and P. Surico), Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 97, Issue 3, pp. 698-709.

International Capital Flows and Development: Financial Openness Matters, 2013 (w/ D. Reinhardt and T. Tressel) Journal of International Economics, Vol. 91 pp.235-251.

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective, 2013 (w/ G. Milesi-Ferretti, and J. Lee), Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 45, Issue 5, pp. 845–865, August.

Unconventional Analyses and Policies for the International Economy, 2012 (w/G. De Arcangelis and Pier Carlo Padoan), Review of International Economics, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp.439-442.

"Productivity, Networks, and Export Performance: Evidence from a Cross-country Firm Dataset", 2012 (w/ F. Trionfetti), Review of International Economics, Vol. 20(3), pp. 552-562.

"The Inflation-Output Trade-Off With Downward Wage Rigidities", 2011 (w/ P. Benigno), The American Economic Review, Vol. 101, June, pp. 1436-1466.

“External Debt and Growth”, 2011 (w/ C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Review of Economics and Istituitions, Vol. 2, No. 3.

"External Balance in Low Income Countries", 2010 (w/ L. Christiansen, A. Prati, T. Tressel), NBER Seminar on International Macroeconomics. Vol. 6 No.1

“A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa”, 2010 (w/ T. Harjes), IMF Staff Papers. Vol. 57 No.2, pp. 407-426.

“Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?”, 2010 (w/ T. Cordella and M. Ruiz Arranz), IMF Staff Papers, Vol.57, No.1, pp.1-25.

"A Model of an Optimum Currency Area", 2008 Economics, Vol. 2, No: 2008-8.

"Real Exchange Rates, Imperfect Substitutability, and Imperfect Competition", 2007 (with R. MacDonald), Journal of Macroeconomics, December, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp.639-664.

"Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration", 2006, Open Economies Review, Vol.17:2, pp.197-219.

"Exchange Rate Regimes, Location, and Specialization", 2006 IMF Staff Papers, Vol.53:1, pp.50-62.

"Sovereign Spreads in South Africa", 2005 (with F. Ahmed and V. Arora) in eds. Martin Grandes and Nicolas Pinaud, "Reducing Capital Cost in Southern Africa", OECD, Paris

"The Real Exchange Rate and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector" 2005 (with R. Mac Donald), Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 10:1, pp.29-48.

"Once Again: Is Openness Good for Growth?" 2004 (with H. Yan Lee and R. Rigobon), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 75: 2, p.451.

"Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis" 2004(with H. Edison, M. Klein, and T. Sloek), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 51: 2, p.220.

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate for South Africa" 2004 (with Ronald Mac Donald), South African Journal of Economics, Vol.72:2; p.282.

"International Financial Contagion in Currency Crises" 2004 (with F. Caramazza and R. Salgado), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 23:1, pp. 51-70.

"External Debt and Growth: Implications for the HIPC" 2004 (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), in eds T. Addison, H. Hansen, and F. Tarp, Debt Relief for Poor Countries, Palgrave MacMillan.

"Through What Channels Does External Debt Affect Growth?" 2003 (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Brookings Trade Forum, pp. 229-258.

"International Financial Integration and Economic Growth" 2002 (with H. Edison, R. Levine, and T Sloek), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 21:6, pp.749-776.

"EMU, Adjustment, and Exchange Rate Variability" 2002 (with P. Isard), European Economic Review, Vol. 46:2, pp.229-251.

"Where to Patent? Theory and Evidence on International Patenting" 2000 (with J. Inkman and W. Polhmeier) in Hans-Juergen Vosgerau ed., Institutional Arrangements for Global Economic Integration, London, Mac Millan.

"Economic Geography and Comparative Advantage", European Economic Review, 1999 vol.43:2, pp.357-377.

"A Ricardian Model of New Trade and Location Theory", Journal of Economic Integration, 1997, vol.12:1.

"Un modèle simple de zone monétaire optimale", Economie et Prévision, 1997, vol. 127:2.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility, (w/ P. Benigno and P. Surico), 2011, NBER WP 16374

"The Inflation-Output Trade-Off With Downward Wage Rigidities" (with Pierpaolo Benigno), 2010, NBER Working Paper No. 15762

"The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-Off at Low Inflation" (with Pierpaolo Benigno), 2008, NBER Working Paper No. 13986

Division Chief, and Mission Chief for Chile, International Monetary Fund.
CEPR Research Fellow.

Email: LRICCI@imf.org

Fluent In: French, Italian, Spanish.

Education:

1996: Ph.D. in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.

1993-1995: Visiting Fellow, Economics Department, Harvard University.

1993: M.A in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.

1990: B.A. in Economics, University of Rome La Sapienza, Italy.


Previous Experience:

2010-2011 – Barclays Capital, Managing Director, Head of International Economic Research.

1996-2010: International Monetary Fund - Research Department (2004-2010), African Department (2001-2004), Research Department (1998-2001), Middle Eastern Department (1997-1998), Research Department (1996-97).

1995-1996: Researcher in international economics at the University of Konstanz, under the Human Capital Mobility Program of the European Union.


Referee Activities:

American Economic Review; E-conomics; Economic Change and Restructuring; Economic Journal; Economie et Prevision; European Journal of Political Economy; International Economic Review; International Review of Economics and Finance; Journal of Comparative Economics; Journal of Economic Growth; Journal of International Economics; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Urban Economics; Open Economies Review; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Review of International Economics; Rivista di Politica Economica; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics; Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.


Editorial Activities:

Associate Editor of Economie Internationale


Teaching:

2018-19: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2016-17: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2014-15: Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "Economic Policy in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Practitioners’ View" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2012-13:Teaching "Assessing External Imbalances" in the course "International Financial Flows to Developing Countries and Emerging Markets: Determinants, Impact and Policy Challenges (A Practitioners’ Perspective)" at The Graduate Institute, Geneva.

2004, May: Visiting professor in International Finance at Luiss University (Rome) and University of Bari, Italy.

1991-1993: Teaching Assistant in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva.


Others:

CONFERENCE ORGANIZATION

Organized jointly with the Minister of Finance of Chile a two-day conference on "Enhancing Chile's Fiscal Frameworks: Lessons from the Domestic and International Experience", Jan. 17-18, 2019, with the participation of Chilean authorities from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, Academics, ex-Ministers and ex-Governors, representative from the government of New Zealand, IMF, and IADB. (https://www.hacienda.cl/sala-de-prensa/conferencias-y-seminarios/conferencia-fiscal-ministerio-de.html; https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/presidente-del-banco-central-sugiere-fortalecer-la-rendicion-cuentas-regla-fiscal/490116/; https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-politica/gobierno/larrain-y-el-fmi-analizaron-propuestas-de-perfeccionamiento-al-marco/2019-01-18/182827.html; http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticias/noticias.asp?id=539146)

Organized, jointly with IMF colleagues, an IMF Annual Meeting Seminar on "Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries: Rising Vulnerabilities and the Path to Resilience", October 2017. (https://www.imf.org/external/POS_Meetings/SeminarDetails.aspx?SeminarId=260)

Organized jointly with the Minister of Finance of Panama the roundtable discussion on "Panama long-term growth prospects and opportunities", Dec 4 2014, with the participation of country authorities, private sector representatives, World Bank, and Iadb (see http://www.panamaamerica.com.pa/economia/economia-panamena-seguira-creciendo-si-el-estado-le-hace-frente-los-cabos-sueltos-955226).


Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Public Finance

Open Economy Macroeconomics

International Trade

International Finance

Economic Modeling

Development Economics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact , Working Paper No. 2021/077 , March 18, 2021

The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations , Working Paper No. 20/220 , October 30, 2020

Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile , Working Paper No. 20/100 , June 19, 2020

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology , Working Paper No. 19/192 , September 13, 2019

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings , Working Paper No. 19/162 , July 26, 2019

Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads? , Working Paper No. 16/246 , December 22, 2016

Trilemma or Dilemma : Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates , Working Paper No. 16/75 , March 23, 2016

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology , Working Paper No. 13/272 , December 31, 2013

Country Insurance Using Financial Instruments , Working Paper No. 11/169 , July 01, 2011

Evidenceon Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Networks in the Export Performance of Firms , Working Paper No. 11/77 , April 01, 2011

External Performance in Low-Income Countries , Occasional Paper No. 272 , March 15, 2011

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility , Working Paper No. 10/259 , November 01, 2010

International Capital Flows and Development: Financial Openness Matters , Working Paper No. 10/235 , October 01, 2010

External Balance in Low Income Countries , Working Paper No. 09/221 , October 01, 2009

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation , Working Paper No. 09/34 , March 01, 2009

Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies , Occasional Paper No. 261 , April 07, 2008

Is There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants , Working Paper No. 08/109 , April 01, 2008

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa , Working Paper No. 08/48 , February 01, 2008

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective , Working Paper No. 08/13 , January 01, 2008

Post-Apartheid South Africa : The First Ten Years , January 12, 2006

Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link , Working Paper No. 05/223 , December 01, 2005

Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility? , Working Paper No. 04/189 , October 01, 2004

Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth? , Working Paper No. 04/135 , July 01, 2004

What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth? , Working Paper No. 04/15 , January 01, 2004

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa , Working Paper No. 03/44 , March 01, 2003

International Financial Integration and Economic Growth , Working Paper No. 02/145 , August 01, 2002

Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis , Working Paper No. 02/120 , July 01, 2002

External Debt and Growth , Working Paper No. 02/69 , April 01, 2002

Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory , Working Paper No. 02/32 , February 01, 2002

PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector , Working Paper No. 01/38 , March 01, 2001

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises , Working Paper No. 00/55 , March 01, 2000

Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration , Working Paper No. 98/9 , February 01, 1998

EMU, Adjustment, and Exchange Rate Variability , Working Paper No. 98/50 , January 01, 1998

Exchange Rate Regimes and Location , Working Paper No. 97/69 , June 01, 1997

IMF Country Reports

IMF Staff Mission Concludes Visit to Chile, June 19, 2019

Chile: Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation

Ecuador: Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument, 2018

Ecuador: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Panama: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Panama: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Selected Issue

Chile: 2018 Selected Issues Papers

Ecuador: 2015 Selected Issues Papers

Panama: 2015 Selected Issues Papers

Other Published Materials

Chile: IMF Mission Concludes Staff Visit, June 19, 2019

Chile: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2018 Article IV Mission

Statement at the WTO Balance-of-Payments Committee on Ecuador Balance of Payments needs, 2016

Statement at the WTO Balance-of-Payments Committee on Ecuador Balance of Payments needs, 2015

2013 IMF External Sector Report (part of a team)

2013 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology (managing the econometric exercise)

2013 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Data and Estimates from the Pilot Exercise (managing the econometric exercise)

2012 Pilot External Sector Report (part of a team)

2012 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Technical Background of the Pilot Methodology (part of a team, responsible for the Real Effective Exchange Rate module)

2012 External Balance Assessment (EBA): Data and Estimates from the Pilot Exercise (part of a team; responsible for the Real Effective Exchange Rate module)

"The Fund’s Mandate—Future Financing Role (main)", 2010, (part of a team)

"The Fund’s Mandate—Future Financing Role: The Current Lending Toolkit and Innovative Reform Options (annex)", 2010 (part of a team)

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa", 2008 (reprint from South African Journal of Economics) in Cottarelli, Ghosh, Milesi-Ferretti, and Tsangarides eds., Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance: A Collection of Empirical Studies, IMF.

"Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessments" (with Jaewoo Lee and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti), 2006 IMF Occasional Paper No.261.

"Review of Fund Facilities—Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options", 2009 (part of the team)

"Globalization: A Brief Overview" (w/ Julian Di Giovanni, Glenn Gottselig, Florence Jaumotte, and Stephen Tokarick), 2008, IMF Issues Brief

"Unemployment and the Labor Market" (with V. Arora), Ch.3 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, eds. Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"What Drives Saving in South Africa?" (joint with T. Harjes), Ch.4 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"South Africa’s Real Exchange Rate Performance", Ch.9 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"The Rand Crises of 1998 and 2001: What Have We Learned?" (with A. Bhundia), Ch.10 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"The Case for Building International Reserves" (with K. Hviding), Ch.11 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"Bringing Inflation Under Control", Ch.12 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"Exploring Determinants of Long-Term Interest Rates" (with F. Ahmed), Ch.13 in Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years, edited by Micheal Nowak and Luca Antonio Ricci, IMF, Washington, DC 2005

"External Debt and Growth" (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Finance and Development, June 2002, Volume 39:2.

"International Financial Integration and Developing Countries" (with H. Edison and T. Sloek), World Economic Outlook, October 2001, Chapter 4.

"Fiscal Improvement In Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last?" (with M. MacFarlan), World Economic Outlook, May 2001, Chapter 3.

"Transition: Experience and Policy Issues" (with P. Sturm and M. De Broeck), World Economic Outlook, October 2000, Chapter 3.

"How Can the Poorest Countries Catch Up?" (with J. Green and R. Salgado), World Economic Outlook, May 2000, Chapter 4.

"Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Performance, Impediments, and Policy Requirements", World Economic Outlook, October 1999, Chapter 6.

"International Financial Contagion" (with F. Caramazza and R. Salgado), World Economic Outlook, May 1999, Chapter 3.

"A Quantitative Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in South Africa", South Africa Selected Issues, 2005 Chapter 1, pp.5-17.

"The Case for Building International Reserves", South Africa Selected Issues, 2004 Chapter 3, pp.35-45.

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa", South Africa Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 1, pp.6-25.

An Analysis of Economic Growth in Swaziland", Swaziland Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 4, pp. 42-49.

"Real Effective Exchange Rate and Competitiveness in Swaziland", Swaziland Selected Issues, 2003 Chapter 5, pp. 50-52.

"Treatment of Exchange Rate Issues in Bilateral Surveillance—A Stocktaking" (as part of the contributing taskforce), 2006.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?, forthcoming (w/ M. Hadzi-Vaskov), Journal of Money Credit and Banking

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility, 2015 (w/ P. Benigno and P. Surico), Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 97, Issue 3, pp. 698-709.

International Capital Flows and Development: Financial Openness Matters, 2013 (w/ D. Reinhardt and T. Tressel) Journal of International Economics, Vol. 91 pp.235-251.

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective, 2013 (w/ G. Milesi-Ferretti, and J. Lee), Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 45, Issue 5, pp. 845–865, August.

Unconventional Analyses and Policies for the International Economy, 2012 (w/G. De Arcangelis and Pier Carlo Padoan), Review of International Economics, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp.439-442.

"Productivity, Networks, and Export Performance: Evidence from a Cross-country Firm Dataset", 2012 (w/ F. Trionfetti), Review of International Economics, Vol. 20(3), pp. 552-562.

"The Inflation-Output Trade-Off With Downward Wage Rigidities", 2011 (w/ P. Benigno), The American Economic Review, Vol. 101, June, pp. 1436-1466.

“External Debt and Growth”, 2011 (w/ C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Review of Economics and Istituitions, Vol. 2, No. 3.

"External Balance in Low Income Countries", 2010 (w/ L. Christiansen, A. Prati, T. Tressel), NBER Seminar on International Macroeconomics. Vol. 6 No.1

“A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa”, 2010 (w/ T. Harjes), IMF Staff Papers. Vol. 57 No.2, pp. 407-426.

“Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?”, 2010 (w/ T. Cordella and M. Ruiz Arranz), IMF Staff Papers, Vol.57, No.1, pp.1-25.

"A Model of an Optimum Currency Area", 2008 Economics, Vol. 2, No: 2008-8.

"Real Exchange Rates, Imperfect Substitutability, and Imperfect Competition", 2007 (with R. MacDonald), Journal of Macroeconomics, December, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp.639-664.

"Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration", 2006, Open Economies Review, Vol.17:2, pp.197-219.

"Exchange Rate Regimes, Location, and Specialization", 2006 IMF Staff Papers, Vol.53:1, pp.50-62.

"Sovereign Spreads in South Africa", 2005 (with F. Ahmed and V. Arora) in eds. Martin Grandes and Nicolas Pinaud, "Reducing Capital Cost in Southern Africa", OECD, Paris

"The Real Exchange Rate and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector" 2005 (with R. Mac Donald), Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 10:1, pp.29-48.

"Once Again: Is Openness Good for Growth?" 2004 (with H. Yan Lee and R. Rigobon), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 75: 2, p.451.

"Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis" 2004(with H. Edison, M. Klein, and T. Sloek), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 51: 2, p.220.

"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate for South Africa" 2004 (with Ronald Mac Donald), South African Journal of Economics, Vol.72:2; p.282.

"International Financial Contagion in Currency Crises" 2004 (with F. Caramazza and R. Salgado), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 23:1, pp. 51-70.

"External Debt and Growth: Implications for the HIPC" 2004 (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), in eds T. Addison, H. Hansen, and F. Tarp, Debt Relief for Poor Countries, Palgrave MacMillan.

"Through What Channels Does External Debt Affect Growth?" 2003 (with C. Pattillo and H. Poirson), Brookings Trade Forum, pp. 229-258.

"International Financial Integration and Economic Growth" 2002 (with H. Edison, R. Levine, and T Sloek), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 21:6, pp.749-776.

"EMU, Adjustment, and Exchange Rate Variability" 2002 (with P. Isard), European Economic Review, Vol. 46:2, pp.229-251.

"Where to Patent? Theory and Evidence on International Patenting" 2000 (with J. Inkman and W. Polhmeier) in Hans-Juergen Vosgerau ed., Institutional Arrangements for Global Economic Integration, London, Mac Millan.

"Economic Geography and Comparative Advantage", European Economic Review, 1999 vol.43:2, pp.357-377.

"A Ricardian Model of New Trade and Location Theory", Journal of Economic Integration, 1997, vol.12:1.

"Un modèle simple de zone monétaire optimale", Economie et Prévision, 1997, vol. 127:2.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility, (w/ P. Benigno and P. Surico), 2011, NBER WP 16374

"The Inflation-Output Trade-Off With Downward Wage Rigidities" (with Pierpaolo Benigno), 2010, NBER Working Paper No. 15762

"The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-Off at Low Inflation" (with Pierpaolo Benigno), 2008, NBER Working Paper No. 13986