Fabian Valencia

Last Updated: June 18, 2021

Fabian Valencia

Fabián Valencia is Deputy Chief in the Macrofinancial Unit in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) of the IMF. Prior to his current position, he served as Mission Chief for The Bahamas and senior desk for Mexico in the Western Hemisphere Department and as economist in the macro-finance group in the Research Department. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from The Johns Hopkins University and a M.Sc. in Economics from the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium. His research focuses on financial intermediation and the real economy and in particular on banking crises and banks' capital structure.

Email: FVALENCIA@imf.org

Fluent In: Spanish.

Education:

Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 2006

M.Sc. in Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 1999

B.A. in Economics, Universidad Católica de Guayaquil, 1997


Referee Activities:

American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, IMF Economic Review, Economic Journal, Economic Letters, European Journal of Political Economy, International Economic Review, European Economic Review, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Economics, Economica, International Journal of Central Banking.

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Handle with Care: Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19 , Working Paper No. 2021/049 , February 26, 2021

Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates , Working Paper No. 20/67 , May 22, 2020

Systemic Banking Crises Revisited , Working Paper No. 18/206 , September 14, 2018

Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk , Working Paper No. 18/35 , March 02, 2018

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through , Working Paper No. 16/240 , December 13, 2016

Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets : Financing vs. Real Options Channel , Working Paper No. 15/285 , December 30, 2015

Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth , Working Paper No. 15/45 , February 27, 2015

Monetary Policy in the New Normal , Staff Discussion Notes No. 14/3 , April 04, 2014

Financial Crises : Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses , February 19, 2014

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit , Working Paper No. 13/241 , December 02, 2013

Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update , Working Paper No. 12/163 , June 01, 2012

Central Bank Independence and Macro-Prudential Regulation , Working Paper No. 12/101 , April 01, 2012

Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations , Working Paper No. 12/68 , March 01, 2012

Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability , Working Paper No. 11/244 , October 01, 2011

Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/5 , March 09, 2011

Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/5 , March 09, 2011

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises , Working Paper No. 11/45 , March 01, 2011

Bank Capital and Uncertainty , Working Paper No. 10/208 , September 01, 2010

Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly , Working Paper No. 10/146 , June 01, 2010

Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia , Working Paper No. 10/54 , March 01, 2010

Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches , Working Paper No. 08/248 , October 01, 2008

The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 08/250 , October 01, 2008

Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database , Working Paper No. 08/224 , September 01, 2008

IMF Country Reports

The Bahamas : 2017 Article IV Consultation

The Bahamas : 2018 Article IV Consultation

Selected Issue

Welfare Gains from Hedging Oil-price Risk, 2016 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, Ch. 3, with Chang Ma.

Fiscal Multipliers in Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 1.

Corporate Vulnerabilities and Impact on the Real Economy, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 3, with Julian Chow.

A Carbon Tax Proposal for Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 4

Strengthening Mexico's Fiscal Framework, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 5.

Other Published Materials

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review - Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations, 2021, with a MCM/SPR staff team.

Implementation Plan In Response To The Executive Board-Endorsed Recommendations From The IEO Evaluation Of The IMF’s Financial Surveillance, 2019.

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2016, IMF working paper, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., with S. Claessens, A. Kose, and L. Laeven (eds.)

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects, with an IMF Staff team

A Banking Union for the Euro Area, 2013, IMF Staff Discussion Note 13/1, with an IMF Staff team

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies, 2013, IMF policy paper. With S. Claessens, K. Habermeier, E. Nier, H. Kang, and T. Mancini

How Costly are the 2007-2009 Systemic Banking Crises?, 2010, with Luc Laeven, in "Financial Sector Taxation. The IMF's Report to the G-20 and Background Material." Edited by Stijn Claessens, Michael Keen, and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., September 2010.

Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Taking, 2010, with Gianni De Nicolo, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Luc Laeven. IMF Staff Position Note 10/09

Policy Responses to Systemic Banking Crises, 2010, in MacroFinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies. Edited by Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 2010

Global Financial Regulatory Reform: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), 2009, with a team led by Robert Rennhack. Staff Position Note 2009/20.

A Survey of Financial Linkages, 2008, with Gaston Gelos and Martin Cerisola. In Who's Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas. Edited by Martin Mulheisen, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, forthcoming, International Journal of Central Banking, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud

Systemic Banking Crises Database II, 2020, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 68, pp. 307-361, with L. Laeven

Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets, 2020, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 52, pp. 613-644, with D. Li and N. Magud.

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit, 2017, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 81, 150–165.

Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, 2016, Energy Economics, with J. Alvarez, vol. 55, 253-265.

Bank Capital and Uncertainty, 2016, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 69, S1-S9.

Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability,2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 47, 20-38.

Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation, 2014, Economic Letters, vol. 125(2), 327-330. With Kenichi Ueda.

Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches, 2014, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 18 (8), 1726-1750.

Financial Crises and Recapitalizations, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 45, Issue s2, November 2013, pp. 59-86, with D. Sandri

Systemic Banking Crises Database, IMF Economic Review, Volume 61, Issue 2, June 2013, pp. 225-270 (lead article), with Luc Laeven.

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2013 , pp. 147-177, with Luc Laeven

The use of blanket guarantees in banking crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31, Issue 5, September 2012, Pages 1220–1248, with Luc Laeven

Other Published Materials

To Hedge or to Self-insure? The Benefits of Mexico’s Oil Hedging Program, 2018, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2017, voxeu, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

Mexico: Setting curse for a greener future, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

Assessing Corporate Risk in Mexico, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo, with Julian Chow.

Fiscal Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2015, IMFdirect, with Robert Rennhack

The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies, 2013, voxeu, with Stijn Claessens

Resolution of Banking Crises, 2013, Ch. 26 of Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability, pages 231-258, Elsevier, with L. Laeven.

The curse of advanced economies in resolving banking crises, 2012, voxeu, with Luc Laeven.

Fabian Valencia

Fabián Valencia is Deputy Chief in the Macrofinancial Unit in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) of the IMF. Prior to his current position, he served as Mission Chief for The Bahamas and senior desk for Mexico in the Western Hemisphere Department and as economist in the macro-finance group in the Research Department. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from The Johns Hopkins University and a M.Sc. in Economics from the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium. His research focuses on financial intermediation and the real economy and in particular on banking crises and banks' capital structure.

Email: FVALENCIA@imf.org

Fluent In: Spanish.

Education:

Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 2006

M.Sc. in Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 1999

B.A. in Economics, Universidad Católica de Guayaquil, 1997


Referee Activities:

American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, IMF Economic Review, Economic Journal, Economic Letters, European Journal of Political Economy, International Economic Review, European Economic Review, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Economics, Economica, International Journal of Central Banking.

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Handle with Care: Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19 , Working Paper No. 2021/049 , February 26, 2021

Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates , Working Paper No. 20/67 , May 22, 2020

Systemic Banking Crises Revisited , Working Paper No. 18/206 , September 14, 2018

Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk , Working Paper No. 18/35 , March 02, 2018

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through , Working Paper No. 16/240 , December 13, 2016

Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets : Financing vs. Real Options Channel , Working Paper No. 15/285 , December 30, 2015

Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth , Working Paper No. 15/45 , February 27, 2015

Monetary Policy in the New Normal , Staff Discussion Notes No. 14/3 , April 04, 2014

Financial Crises : Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses , February 19, 2014

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit , Working Paper No. 13/241 , December 02, 2013

Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update , Working Paper No. 12/163 , June 01, 2012

Central Bank Independence and Macro-Prudential Regulation , Working Paper No. 12/101 , April 01, 2012

Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations , Working Paper No. 12/68 , March 01, 2012

Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability , Working Paper No. 11/244 , October 01, 2011

Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/5 , March 09, 2011

Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/5 , March 09, 2011

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises , Working Paper No. 11/45 , March 01, 2011

Bank Capital and Uncertainty , Working Paper No. 10/208 , September 01, 2010

Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly , Working Paper No. 10/146 , June 01, 2010

Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia , Working Paper No. 10/54 , March 01, 2010

Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches , Working Paper No. 08/248 , October 01, 2008

The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 08/250 , October 01, 2008

Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database , Working Paper No. 08/224 , September 01, 2008

IMF Country Reports

The Bahamas : 2017 Article IV Consultation

The Bahamas : 2018 Article IV Consultation

Selected Issue

Welfare Gains from Hedging Oil-price Risk, 2016 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, Ch. 3, with Chang Ma.

Fiscal Multipliers in Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 1.

Corporate Vulnerabilities and Impact on the Real Economy, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 3, with Julian Chow.

A Carbon Tax Proposal for Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 4

Strengthening Mexico's Fiscal Framework, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 5.

Other Published Materials

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review - Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations, 2021, with a MCM/SPR staff team.

Implementation Plan In Response To The Executive Board-Endorsed Recommendations From The IEO Evaluation Of The IMF’s Financial Surveillance, 2019.

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2016, IMF working paper, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., with S. Claessens, A. Kose, and L. Laeven (eds.)

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects, with an IMF Staff team

A Banking Union for the Euro Area, 2013, IMF Staff Discussion Note 13/1, with an IMF Staff team

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies, 2013, IMF policy paper. With S. Claessens, K. Habermeier, E. Nier, H. Kang, and T. Mancini

How Costly are the 2007-2009 Systemic Banking Crises?, 2010, with Luc Laeven, in "Financial Sector Taxation. The IMF's Report to the G-20 and Background Material." Edited by Stijn Claessens, Michael Keen, and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., September 2010.

Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Taking, 2010, with Gianni De Nicolo, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Luc Laeven. IMF Staff Position Note 10/09

Policy Responses to Systemic Banking Crises, 2010, in MacroFinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies. Edited by Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 2010

Global Financial Regulatory Reform: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), 2009, with a team led by Robert Rennhack. Staff Position Note 2009/20.

A Survey of Financial Linkages, 2008, with Gaston Gelos and Martin Cerisola. In Who's Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas. Edited by Martin Mulheisen, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, forthcoming, International Journal of Central Banking, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud

Systemic Banking Crises Database II, 2020, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 68, pp. 307-361, with L. Laeven

Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets, 2020, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 52, pp. 613-644, with D. Li and N. Magud.

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit, 2017, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 81, 150–165.

Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, 2016, Energy Economics, with J. Alvarez, vol. 55, 253-265.

Bank Capital and Uncertainty, 2016, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 69, S1-S9.

Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability,2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 47, 20-38.

Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation, 2014, Economic Letters, vol. 125(2), 327-330. With Kenichi Ueda.

Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches, 2014, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 18 (8), 1726-1750.

Financial Crises and Recapitalizations, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 45, Issue s2, November 2013, pp. 59-86, with D. Sandri

Systemic Banking Crises Database, IMF Economic Review, Volume 61, Issue 2, June 2013, pp. 225-270 (lead article), with Luc Laeven.

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2013 , pp. 147-177, with Luc Laeven

The use of blanket guarantees in banking crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31, Issue 5, September 2012, Pages 1220–1248, with Luc Laeven

Other Published Materials

To Hedge or to Self-insure? The Benefits of Mexico’s Oil Hedging Program, 2018, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2017, voxeu, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

Mexico: Setting curse for a greener future, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

Assessing Corporate Risk in Mexico, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo, with Julian Chow.

Fiscal Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2015, IMFdirect, with Robert Rennhack

The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies, 2013, voxeu, with Stijn Claessens

Resolution of Banking Crises, 2013, Ch. 26 of Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability, pages 231-258, Elsevier, with L. Laeven.

The curse of advanced economies in resolving banking crises, 2012, voxeu, with Luc Laeven.