Can Cash Transfers Save Lives?December 12, 2024 Edward Miguel, Faculty Co-Director, Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), University of California, Berkeley
At a time when global health disparities continue to challenge progress, the groundbreaking findings from a large-scale experiment in Kenya reveal that unconditional cash transfers can not only alleviate poverty but also significantly reduce mortality and improve health and well-being. In this seminar, Professor Miguel presents his latest work on the intergenerational health effects of one-time cash transfers of USD 1,000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in Kenya. Nine years after the program's launch, census data collected by the authors on over 100,000 births show a 40% reduction in child mortality before age one and age five during the cash disbursement period. The findings underscore that cash transfers and access to health services are complements in reducing mortality, as evidenced by cause-of-death data, the timing of transfers relative to births, and the location of health facilities. |
Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Inequality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Insights from Academia and PolicyJuly 9, 2024 Lucie Gadenne, Queen Mary, University of London, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Domestic revenue mobilization is crucial to fund efforts to address large and urgent development needs currently faced by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, tax design can exacerbate inequality, highlighting the need for evidence-based policy recommendations that consider the specific characteristics of LMIC economies. In this seminar, tax policy experts present their latest research on the equity of tax systems in LMICs, strategies for improving tax capacity, and methods for taxing wealth. The presentations documents stylized facts, discusses how we should rethink tax design throughout the development path, and provide practical lessons on how to tax the rich. |
Structural Reforms in Action: A Practical Tool for Accelerating Economic Growth and the Green Transition in EMDEsMay 30, 2024 Marina M. Tavares (IMF) and Andrea Medici (IMF)
This presentation did (i) showcase the new Structural Reform Dashboard; and (ii) highlighted key messages from the SDN on Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies. The Structural Reform Dashboard allows users to access interactive charts that (a) present the evolution of countries’ regulatory stance in macro and green structural areas; (b) explore potential gains from proposed reforms on a country-by-country basis; and (c) rank the impact of granular reforms based on a customizable set of policy objectives. |
Agri-Food Value Chain Revolutions in Low- and Middle-Income CountriesFebruary 28, 2024 Johan Swinnen (IFPRI and CGIAR)
Over the past few decades, agri-food value chains (AVCs) in developing economies have undergone rapid growth and structural transformation, with significant implications for economic development. AVCs have become major employers, sources of value addition, and hubs for technology transfer and foreign investment. This seminar will discuss how and why AVC revolutions occur in developing countries; the impact of these changes; and how policy reforms can both promote these transformations and ensure that they lead to more inclusive development. |
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Countries-2022December 22, 2022 Roland Kpodar (IMF) and Thordur Jonasson (IMF) IMF Staff from the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department and the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, will present the main findings from the 2022 LIC Report, which includes a conjunctural chapter and a thematic one on debt management CD. Russia’s war in Ukraine is projected to slow down LICs’ recovery from the pandemic and inflation has accelerated. LICs’ fiscal position is also increasingly under stress, further intensifying debt vulnerabilities. Policy makers in LICs face challenging trade-offs both in the near and long term. The international community stepped up support to LICs, but more needs to be done. With elevated debt levels, high gross financing needs, and rising global interest rates, effective public debt management can play a critical role in mitigating debt vulnerabilities. It is key to ensure that debt managers have adequate tools, institutional arrangements, staffing, and resources to meet these challenges. The Fund is well positioned to support improvements in LICs’ public debt management capacity. |
Migration, Seasonality, and the Covid-19 Pandemic in Rural Communities of Low-income CountriesApril 7, 2022 Mushfiq Mobarak, Professor of Economics, Yale University
|
Remittances and Digital Currencies During COVID-19 Crisis and BeyondFebruary 3, 2022 Dilip Ratha, Lead Economist and Head of KNOMAD, World Bank
|
Industrialization and the Post-Pandemic Recovery: A New Structural Economics ApproachJune 16, 2021 Justin Yifu Lin, Professor & Dean, Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University
|
The Future of Agri-Food Systems after Covid-19May20, 2021 Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
|
Tackling the Triple Crisis: Using Debt Swaps to Address Debt, Climate, and Natural Loss Post Covid-19November 9, 2020
|
Development Strategies and Building Capability: The good, the bad and the ugly?March 10, 2020 Lant Pritchett: He worked for the World Bank from 1988 to 2007. He also taught at the Harvard Kennedy School from 2000 to 2004 and from 2007 to 2018. He is now a double retiree, affiliated with Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government.
|
Trading For Development in the Age of Global Value ChainsPaul Antras: Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics, Harvard University. February 13, 2020
|
Information Frictions in International TradeAmit Khandelwal: Professor of Global Business Economics, Columbia University. December 12, 2019
|
Global Infrastructure: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for DistinctionDecember 4, 2019
The paper then applies the classification to the only existing, comprehensive cross-country estimates of the social rate of return on infrastructure (electricity and paved roads). The conventional wisdom is that there are ubiquitous opportunities for infrastructure investment that meet the two criteria. In fact, only 7 of 53 developing countries clear the dual-hurdle rate in both electricity and paved roads. Where it is efficient to invest, however, the potential for excess returns on infrastructure is quite large—five times larger, in fact, than the excess returns that existed, but have long since been arbitraged away, in emerging-market stocks when foreigners were first permitted to own shares. The framework thus implies a new definition of the infrastructure gap as the amount of investment required to close the difference between the return on infrastructure in poor countries and the return on private capital elsewhere. More importantly, the framework moves the discussion away from alarmism and exaggeration toward the clarity that economics can and should bring to any policy discussion. |
What Will it Take? Crafting a Policy Agenda for the Eradication Of Extreme Poverty in 2030November 12, 2019
Carolina Sánchez-Páramo will provide an overview of recent trends in poverty reduction and inclusive growth, discuss the challenges associated with sustaining and deepening progress, and draw from the experience of countries that have succeed in reducing extreme poverty and promoting broad-based economic growth to extract some lessons on the way forward. She will also briefly discuss WBG efforts to strengthen the alignment and maximize the impact of country programs on poverty and inclusive growth. |
Understanding Human Capital Accumulation across Countries and People: The Experience of Building an IndexApril 25, 2019
|
Under-Rewarded Efforts: The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in MexicoMarch 11, 2019
|
Digital Technology and Developmental Implications for Growth and EmploymentNovember 12, 2018
|
The Developmental Role of Property TaxationSeptember 26, 2018
|
Illicit Financial Flows - Definition, Measurement and Implications for Policy MakingJune 12, 2018
|
Financial Lives of the PoorMay 3, 2018
|
The Economics of Conflict and Post ConflictMarch 23, 2018
|
Global Income Inequality: Results, Issues, Political ImplicationsFebruary 26, 2018
|
Informational Constraints on Antipoverty Policies: Evidence for AfricaJanuary 11, 2018
|
Abstract: The Covid-19 has revealed the world’s vulnerability in the face of global risks and caused a severe setback in the global development. Many countries will not be able to achieve the SDGs in 2030 without redoubling their national efforts and international community’s supports for their development. SDG-9 of Industrialization is essential for achieving SDG-1, SDG-2, SDG-3, SDG-4 and SDG-8. The presentation will discuss how to achieve inclusive and sustainable industrialization in a country from the perspective of new structural economics, and some lessons for the national government and the global development community to better anticipate, manage and respond to emerging global disasters with a focus on industrial development.
Abstract: The coronavirus recession, the worst recession in four decades, will have lasting consequences of tremendous magnitude. It is not a normal recession, as it was caused by a health crisis, not a financial crisis. Globally, countries have spent close to $12 trillion in fiscal support to keep their economy alive. Meanwhile, the root causes of hunger, including conflict, climate change, and downturns and slowdowns have not gone away. COVID-19 has disproportionately affected those in lower economic strata, exacerbating their vulnerabilities, which drives pre-existing inequality deeper. Two decades of progress on poverty reduction was wiped out just in six months. An additional 88 million to 115 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty just in 2020 losing more than a decade of poverty reduction. Even before the pandemic, global hunger was rising, with 690 million people going to bed hungry every night – and up to 130 million could now join their ranks as a result of COVID-19. Three billion people couldn’t afford healthy foods. With staggering job losses, more people are shifting to cheaper, unhealthy diets. Many have lost health care. With school closures, over 370 million children are missing on education and school meals. Governments must refocus their energies more on rural areas. And in rural areas agriculture is the best weapon against poverty, unwanted migration, and undernourishment. In an age of more complex and sophisticated supply chains, countries must rethink agriculture, as traditional farming activities can be transformed into a competitive industry.
Paul Steele, Chief Economist, International Institute for Environment and Development
Jean-Paul Adam, Director, Technology, Climate Change, and Natural Resource Management
Sejal Patel, Researcher, International Institute for Environment and Development
Abstract: Outcomes are not affected by the policy as formulated or adopted but by policy as actually implemented. Hence a key constraint to achieving good outcomes in many developing countries is the alignment of development strategies and state capability. I discuss and illustrate with empirical examples the good, the bad, and the ugly. Ugly strategies adopt policy adoption alone of "best practice" policies independent of considerations of state capability. These strategies may look good on paper but can be counter-productive and create a low-level trap. Bad strategies assume that organizational capability is constrained by the capacities of individuals and adopt exclusively training based approaches independent of strategy. The good intertwines the formulation of policy and development strategies and effective tactics to build capability.
Abstract: 
Abstract: This talk examines a non-traditional barrier to international trade: information. Information frictions are estimated to be a large component of trade costs. This talk examines recent research on the causes and consequences of information frictions to trade in developing countries, and policies that could mitigate these costs.
This paper evaluates the literature that claims poor countries have an infrastructure investment gap of roughly 1 trillion dollars per year and therefore possess widespread opportunities for productive spending on infrastructure. The evaluation introduces and employs a simple framework that concludes this claim is invalid. The framework compares a poor country’s social rate of return on infrastructure investment with: (a) the poor country’s return on private capital, and (b) the average rich country’s return on private capital. The dual comparison reveals that additional investment in a poor country’s infrastructure is: (1) efficient only if the return on poor-country infrastructure exceeds the return on poor-country private capital; and (2) financeable through private rich-country savings only if the return on poor-country infrastructure exceeds the return on rich-country private capital. This dual-hurdle rate framework suggests a two-by-two classification that sorts countries into quadrants according to their potential for efficient investment in infrastructure.
The last two decades have been witness to unprecedent gains in poverty reduction. However, progress has been uneven, with Sub-Saharan Africa trailing other regions, and the pace of poverty reduction has slowed down in recent years. Moving forward, slow growth, macroeconomic imbalances, escalating trade tensions, high levels of inequality in income and opportunities, and increasing fragility and conflict will continue to pose important challenges to further poverty reduction and inclusive growth, calling for urgent and focused policy action if we are to meet the goal of extreme poverty eradication in 2030.
Abstract: Building on recent macro and micro evidence on the relevance of human capital, the speaker will present the newly released Human Capital Index and the rationale behind it. She will discuss examples of how this metric can be used to address policy concerns and frame some outstanding research questions on human capital accumulation
Abstract: Over the last two decades Mexico has maintained a stable macroeconomic environment, has made major efforts to integrate into the world economy, has invested heavily in education, has raised the investment rate, and has enjoyed the benefits of a demographic bonus but, with the exception of Venezuela, is the economy that has grown the least in Latin America. Why has an economy that has done so many things right failed to grow fast? “Under-Rewarded Efforts” traces Mexico’s disappointing growth to flawed microeconomic policies that have suppressed productivity growth and nullified the expected benefits of Mexico’s reform efforts. It makes use of detailed firm-level data to show that the allocation of resources has worsened as a result of dysfunctional firm dynamics and argues that large misallocation has depressed the returns to education and the returns to experience. It identifies major flaws in Mexico’s labor, social insurance, tax and contract enforcement policies, and argues that fast growth will only result from inclusive institutions that effectively protect workers against risks, redistribute towards those in need and simultaneously align entrepreneurs’ and workers’ incentives to raise productivity.
Digital technologies that include advances in industrial automation, Fintech, AI, blockchain, Big Data and others, are diffusing rapidly and could in time accelerate the pace of innovation and productivity growth in a multitude of activities. Most directly they are likely to affect certain manufacturing subsectors, transport, healthcare, agriculture, education, and a host of professional services. However, the widespread penetration of digital technologies in advanced and developing countries alike could upend supply chains, lead to the displacement of workers engaged in repetitive and codifiable tasks. For emerging and African economies, these technologies present a wealth of opportunities, but they also threaten to swell the ranks of the unemployed and possibly worsen inequality. At this juncture no one knows what new jobs will be created, what sort of skills they will require, and what sort of wages the jobs might command. The presentation will discuss the likely spread of these technologies in middle- and low-income countries (given technological capabilities, infrastructures, and investment), their potential impact, and policy measures that could minimize the downside while maximizing the economic gains.
Property taxation is typically seen through a revenue generation lens by IFIs and then ignored, given the greater revenue potential of the VAT and the income taxes. However, the SDGs and a clean environment depend on local action for the design and financing of public service delivery and sustainable investment. Shared revenues and transfers from higher levels of government do not constitute “own-source revenues” for hard budget constraints and unlocking “private sources of finance.” Unfortunately, US-styled property taxes based on clear property titles and detailed cadasters, and timely tracking of property prices, have not functioned well in most developing countries—and experiments in Shanghai and Chongqing were not particularly successful. A simple flat rate (or band, as in the UK) property tax based on occupancy, and registration of properties, supported by satellite imagery and arms’ length administration is feasible in most countries, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. Blockchain technology also permits the joint simplification of the revenue and treasury circuits. A simple property tax system can be implemented quickly, anchoring the explosive local debts in many countries, including in China, and laying the basis for more accountable and sustainable urban transitions.
Combatting illicit financial flows has risen up the policy agenda in recent years and is included as a target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The idea of illicit financial flows is important because it highlights that crime and corruption are not just the problem of the country where they happen, but also involve 'spillover' impacts from other countries whose financial systems, goods trade and real estate markets are vulnerable to be used as getaway vehicles. However, there is no globally agreed upon definition for “illicit financial flows”, and much disagreement and confusion over this term. Debates are often shaped by impossibly raised expectations of hundreds of billions or even trillions of additional funds for development that might be unlocked through international action.
The lives of the poor are hidden in standard economic surveys of households. New studies with high-frequency data on cash flows, however, are revealing a new view of poverty—and of the importance of financial inclusion. The studies show that the volatility of income and the variability of needs are common and fundamental elements of poverty. As a result, poor families often lead active financial lives—not despite being poor, but because they are poor. They want to save, can save, and do save – though, often in improvised ways that challenge both behavioral and neoclassical economic assumptions. The private sector is responding with digital solutions and the public sector with regulation, putting new attention on economic insecurity as a policy concern. Examples and lessons are drawn from India, Bangladesh, South Africa, and the United States. 
On current trends, by 2030, 80 percent of the extreme poor will be in countries that are currently fragile. This means the work of development will increasingly be about how to prevent conflict and how to achieve positive change in post-conflict and fragile states. Political science has much to say about the strategies to achieve pursue in these difficult situations. But what can economics add? A growing literature in economics carefully identifies contributors to conflict which range from rising temperatures to lower wages. Combatting climate change, helping labour-intensive sectors flourish, and building noncognitive skills are practical policy recommendations coming from this work. Economic studies of conflict itself find that hearts and minds approaches are much more effective in combatting insurgencies than violent repression. Given that growing economic opportunity increases the opportunity cost of conflict, how successful are post-conflict programs in generating these opportunities? A recent review of rigorous evaluations of Community Driven Reconstruction programs (a large proportion of spend in post conflict environments) suggests moderate success even in very challenging environments. We present new results showing these economic benefits can persist many years after the support is withdrawn.
The talk will discuss the evolution in global inequality. It will present the most recent estimates, discuss methodological and measurement issues, and look at political implications of the changes that are taking place in global distribution of income. In particular, it will focus on the rise of the middle class in Asia, income stagnation of the rich countries’ middle classes, and the emergence of global plutocracy.
It has often been said that the world’s aggregate poverty gap—the total monetary amount by which all poor people fall below the poverty line—is modest when one uses poverty lines typical of low-income countries. The implication is sometimes drawn that only a modest sum of money is needed to eliminate global poverty—to bring all poor people up to the international poverty line. However, eliminating poverty may well be a lot harder than the size of the aggregate poverty gap might suggest. Identifying who is poor and by how much is challenging. The poverty gap calculation could be way off the mark.