Washington, DC:
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today
completed the third review under the Policy Coordination Instrument
(PCI) and approved an 18-month Stand-by arrangement (SBA) and an
arrangement under the Stand-By Credit Facility (SCF) for Senegal.
Approval of the SCF/SBA enables an immediate disbursement of SDR 129.4
million or about US$187 million. This follows previous Fund emergency
support to Senegal in April 2020 in the amount of US$442 million at the
time of approval (
see Press Release No. 20/152
).
The COVID-19 pandemic hit the Senegalese economy hard and caused
hardship for many, particularly those active in the informal sector.
Growth in 2020 is estimated at 1.5 percent, supported by a record
harvest while the hospitality, tourism and transport sectors suffered
severe contractions. The government’s forceful implementation of an
Economic and Social Resilience Program (PRES) helped strengthen the
health sector and mitigate households’ and firms’ income losses. A
subdued recovery is expected for 2021 with growth reaching about 3.7
percent.
To ensure transparency and accountability of pandemic-related spending,
the authorities have published quarterly budget execution reports
detailing the use of such resources. The report of the Fonds Force COVID-19 monitoring committee has also been
finalized. The annual audit of procurement procedures, including those
related to COVID-19 spending, will be finalized end June and the audit
court will publish its report on the 2020 budget law implementation in
October.
Staff and the authorities agreed on a revised budget deficit trajectory
for 2021-23 which incorporates the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and a new
program to boost youth and women employment. A steadfast implementation
of the Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization Strategy and spending
reprioritization will provide fiscal space while the overall deficit is
expected to return to the WAEMU deficit anchor of 3 percent of GDP by
2023.
Performance under the PCI has remained positive and program objectives
of achieving strong and inclusive growth while maintaining
macroeconomic stability remain relevant. Fund engagement with Senegal
under the PCI will continue concurrently with the new SBA and
arrangement under the SCF until end-2022.
At the conclusion of the Board discussion on the third review under the
PCI and the requests for the SBA and arrangement under the SCF for
Senegal, Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director and Acting
Chair made the following statement:
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the Senegalese economy
which was mitigated by the authorities’ forceful response. The publication
of quarterly budget execution reports detailing the use of COVID-19
spending and of the report by the COVID-19 fund monitoring committee are
important steps to ensure the transparency and accountability of such
spending.
“The near-term macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated owing notably to the
protracted COVID-19 pandemic, higher commodity prices, and higher financing
needs for the vaccine rollout. A gradual recovery is expected in 2021,
although it is subject to important downside risks, including a third wave
of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The authorities’ reform agenda, supported by the Policy Coordination
Instrument, remains appropriate to achieve the program’s objective of
strong and inclusive growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. The
fiscal strategy fully accommodates the costs for the vaccination campaign
and will, together with new Fund financing under the SCF/SBA, additional
donor support, and the extension of the G-20 Debt Suspension Initiative,
help unwind the actual but short-term balance-of-payments need.
“Fiscal policy should remain anchored by a credible, revenue-based
consolidation towards a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2023, in line
with the WAEMU norm. The identification of strong revenue mobilization
measures for the program period and the authorities’ full commitment to the
medium-term revenue mobilization strategy are essential in this regard.
Additional spending for the new youth and women employment program should
be well-targeted and efficient, and accompanied by reforms to support
private sector job creation. Public debt has risen continuously in recent
years and risks to debt sustainability need to be carefully monitored and
concessional financing should be prioritized.
“The legal framework for the management of upcoming hydrocarbon revenue is
being finalized reflecting best international practices. Ongoing reforms to
improve public financial management will help strengthen spending
efficiency and transparency.”
|
Table 1. Senegal: Selected Economic and Financial
Indicators, 2019–251
|
|
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
|
|
Prel.
|
Est.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
|
|
(Annual percentage change)
|
|
National income and prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP at constant prices 1
|
4.4
|
1.5
|
3.7
|
5.5
|
10.8
|
6.1
|
5.4
|
|
Of which: Non-hydrocarbon GDP
|
4.4
|
1.5
|
3.7
|
5.5
|
6.1
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
|
Of which: Hydrocarbon GDP
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
10.5
|
-7.6
|
|
Of which: Non-agriculture GDP
|
4.4
|
-0.8
|
3.8
|
5.6
|
11.4
|
6.2
|
5.3
|
|
GDP deflator
|
1.9
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
2.1
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
|
Consumer prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual average
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
End of period
|
0.6
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
|
External sector
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exports, f.o.b. (CFA francs)
|
15.5
|
-10.5
|
6.4
|
16.2
|
67.6
|
24.5
|
6.1
|
|
Imports, f.o.b. (CFA francs)
|
6.2
|
-6.7
|
11.5
|
6.7
|
23.3
|
11.0
|
6.4
|
|
Export volume
|
18.7
|
-7.2
|
2.8
|
15.2
|
79.3
|
22.0
|
4.1
|
|
Import volume
|
3.9
|
3.9
|
3.5
|
13.0
|
24.0
|
12.0
|
5.4
|
|
Terms of trade ("–" = deterioration)
|
-4.7
|
7.4
|
-3.8
|
6.8
|
-6.0
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
|
Nominal effective exchange rate
|
-1.3
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
Real effective exchange rate
|
-2.1
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
|
(Changes in percent of beginning-of-year broad money)
|
|
Broad money
|
8.2
|
12.4
|
6.2
|
8.6
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
Net domestic assets
|
7.4
|
14.4
|
7.6
|
10.7
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
Credit to the government (net)
|
1.7
|
15.4
|
2.3
|
4.0
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
|
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
|
|
Government financial operations
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue
|
20.4
|
20.0
|
20.2
|
21.0
|
22.0
|
23.0
|
23.9
|
|
Grants
|
1.6
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
|
Total expenditure
|
24.3
|
26.4
|
25.7
|
25.2
|
24.9
|
26.0
|
26.9
|
|
Net lending/borrowing (Overall Balance)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
excluding grants
|
-5.5
|
-8.7
|
-7.4
|
-6.3
|
-4.8
|
-4.7
|
-4.5
|
|
including grants
|
-3.9
|
-6.4
|
-5.4
|
-4.2
|
-3.0
|
-3.0
|
-3.0
|
|
Net lending/borrowing (excl. one-off operations)
|
-3.1
|
-6.3
|
-5.1
|
-4.0
|
-3.0
|
-3.0
|
-3.0
|
|
Primary fiscal balance
|
-1.9
|
-4.3
|
-3.3
|
-2.1
|
-0.9
|
-0.9
|
-0.8
|
|
Savings and investment
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current account balance (official transfers included)
|
-8.1
|
-10.5
|
-11.3
|
-10.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.2
|
-3.9
|
|
Current account balance (official transfers excluded)
|
-8.4
|
-11.9
|
-11.8
|
-11.1
|
-6.0
|
-3.6
|
-4.1
|
|
Gross domestic investment
|
31.9
|
30.6
|
32.4
|
33.1
|
33.2
|
30.7
|
31.4
|
|
Government 2
|
6.3
|
6.9
|
7.1
|
7.6
|
6.1
|
6.5
|
6.6
|
|
Nongovernment
|
25.7
|
23.8
|
25.3
|
25.6
|
27.1
|
24.2
|
24.8
|
|
Gross national savings
|
23.8
|
20.2
|
21.1
|
22.6
|
27.7
|
27.5
|
27.6
|
|
Government
|
6.7
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
6.2
|
9.2
|
11.0
|
11.9
|
|
Nongovernment
|
17.1
|
14.5
|
15.4
|
16.5
|
18.5
|
16.6
|
15.7
|
|
Total public debt 3
|
63.8
|
68.7
|
70.9
|
69.9
|
64.9
|
62.8
|
61.1
|
|
Domestic public debt 4
|
11.0
|
14.6
|
14.0
|
13.3
|
12.3
|
12.0
|
12.5
|
|
External public debt
|
52.8
|
54.1
|
56.9
|
56.6
|
52.6
|
50.8
|
48.6
|
|
Total public debt service 3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percent of government revenue
|
22.1
|
25.4
|
20.4
|
23.8
|
25.0
|
26.6
|
26.1
|
|
Memorandum items:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross domestic product (CFAF billions)
|
13,655
|
14,185
|
14,998
|
16,159
|
18,218
|
19,681
|
21,127
|
|
of which non-hydrocarbon (CFAF billions)
|
13,655
|
14,185
|
14,998
|
16,159
|
17,104
|
18,425
|
19,943
|
|
Gross domestic product (USD billions)
|
23.6
|
24.7
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
Share of hydrocarbon in total GDP (%)
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
6.1
|
6.4
|
5.6
|
|
National Currency per U.S. Dollar (Average)
|
586
|
575
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
|
Sources: Senegal authorities; and IMF staff estimates and
projections.
|
|
1
Based on national accounts with base year 2014.
|
|
2
Reflects reclassification of public investment.
|
|
3
Starting in 2017 debt level, debt service and government
revenue include preliminary data covering the broader
public sector.
|
|
4
Domestic debt includes government securities issued in
local currency and held by WAEMU residents.
|