Washington, DC:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Amadou Sy, concluded
hybrid discussions with the Cameroonian authorities during June 15–29 on
the Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended
Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements.
At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Sy, issued the following
statement:
“The IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Cameroonian
authorities on the economic and financial policies that could support the
approval of the Second Review of the
program under the ECF and EFF arrangements. The agreement is subject to approval of the IMF Executive Board in late
July 2022, which would enable the disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about
US$73.6 million).
“Economic growth slowed to 0.5 percent in 2020 affected by the COVID-19
pandemic and security tensions in the region. Growth rebounded in 2021 and
reached 3.6 percent for the year, supported by a domestic recovery and the
general global economic recovery. Inflation for the year averaged 2.3
percent and the current account deficit (including grants) widened to 4.0
percent of GDP.
“The economic outlook for 2022 remains positive and the economy is expected
to grow by 3.8 percent. However, the outlook is clouded with considerable
uncertainty arising from the sharp increase in international commodity
prices—especially for oil, fertilizer, and foodstuffs—accentuated by the
war in Ukraine, and tightening conditions in international financial
markets. Average inflation is expected to rise to 4.6 percent, while higher
oil export receipts should further improve the current account deficit to
2.1 percent of GDP. The authorities are committed to a fiscal policy
anchored on a gradual reduction of the deficit and are revising the budget
to maintain the deficit (cash basis, including grants) at 2.5 percent of
GDP—much the same as in the original budget. This should bring the stock of
public debt down to around 44 percent of GDP by end-2022.
“The impact of higher international oil prices on the budget is mixed as
the higher oil revenues are more than offset by substantially higher fuel
subsidies (estimated at 2.9 percent of GDP from 0.5 percent in 2021) aimed
at maintaining the administered retail fuel prices unchanged. The higher
subsidy costs are therefore being accommodated by reducing other spending,
including spending on investment projects. The high cost of fuel subsidies
would be difficult to sustain under current international oil price
projections. However, the gradual phasing out of fuel subsidies would need
to be accompanied by a substantial scaling-up of the social cash transfer
mechanism.”
“The team shared the authorities’ concern with the rise in food prices and
welcomed the authorities’ effort to ensuring adequate supplies of
fertilizer so that the next harvest will be plentiful.”
“The medium-term outlook remains positive, though facing considerable
uncertainties. The economic strategy remains focused on rebuilding fiscal
and external buffers to sustain macroeconomic stability. At the same time,
the pace of structural reform needs to be accelerated for the country to
meet its development goals. The business environment needs to be improved
for the private sector to take the lead role in supporting growth. The team
welcomed the authorities’ continued efforts to improve public financial
management and governance, including the accountability of budget
execution. The team also welcomed the authorities’ efforts to strengthen
the financial management of state enterprises, including recent progress on
SONARA’s restructuring. The completion of key infrastructure projects,
especially for energy and transport, should boost economic growth and
support the replacement of imported with domestically produced goods.”
“The team acknowledged the authorities’ commitment to implementing policies
consistent with the stability of the region’s monetary arrangement, which
includes rebuilding foreign exchange reserves at the Bank of Central
African States (BEAC). To this end, the authorities are working to
strengthen compliance with the foreign exchange regulations notably
regarding the repatriation of export earnings, while not impeding
legitimate payments overseas.
““The IMF staff team met with the Prime Minister, Joseph Dion Ngute, the
Minister and Secretary General of the Presidency, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the
Minister of Finance, Louis Paul Motaze, the Minister of the Economy,
Planning and Regional Development, Alamine Ousmane Mey, the National
Director of the BEAC, Eugene Blaise Nsom, and other senior officials. The
mission also met with representatives of development partners, the
diplomatic community, the private sector, and civil society.”
“The team wishes to thank the Cameroonian authorities for their excellent
cooperation and for the frank and constructive dialogue.”
Table 1. Cameroon: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2021-27
(CFAF billion, unless otherwise indicated)
|
|
2021
|
2021
|
2022
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2026
|
2027
|
|
|
1st Rev.
|
Est.
|
1st Rev.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
Proj.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National account and prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP at constant prices
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
3.8
|
4.6
|
4.7
|
5.0
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
|
Oil GDP at constant prices
|
0.1
|
-3.2
|
0.1
|
4.2
|
-3.0
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
Non-Oil GDP at constant prices
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
4.6
|
3.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
|
GDP deflator
|
2.6
|
3.3
|
2.9
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
|
Nominal GDP (at market prices, CFAF billions)
|
24,951
|
25,158
|
26,828
|
27,389
|
29,325
|
31,506
|
33,766
|
36,152
|
38,682
|
|
Oil
|
929
|
801
|
1,009
|
1,187
|
1,090
|
992
|
927
|
883
|
859
|
|
Non-Oil
|
24,021
|
24,357
|
25,819
|
26,201
|
28,235
|
30,513
|
32,839
|
35,269
|
37,823
|
|
Oil output (thousands of barrels per day)
|
76.1
|
76.1
|
76.2
|
79.3
|
76.9
|
77.1
|
77.3
|
77.5
|
77.7
|
|
Consumer prices (average)
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
4.6
|
2.8
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
|
Consumer prices (eop)
|
2.1
|
3.5
|
2.0
|
4.1
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise Indicated)
|
|
|
|
Money and credit
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Broad money (M2)
|
13.8
|
17.2
|
10.7
|
15.6
|
10.1
|
8.1
|
6.7
|
6.1
|
7.0
|
|
Net foreign assets 1/
|
1.9
|
4.3
|
6.5
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
2.0
|
3.6
|
|
Net domestic assets 1/
|
11.9
|
12.9
|
4.2
|
10.5
|
6.1
|
6.4
|
5.2
|
4.1
|
3.4
|
|
Domestic credit to the private sector
|
5.4
|
9.7
|
5.6
|
9.1
|
8.2
|
7.5
|
7.9
|
8.0
|
3.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Savings and investments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross national savings
|
26.9
|
14.0
|
29.8
|
16.3
|
17.3
|
18.8
|
20.4
|
21.8
|
23.2
|
|
Gross domestic investment
|
30.3
|
17.9
|
31.8
|
18.4
|
20.0
|
22.0
|
23.6
|
25.0
|
26.0
|
|
Public investment
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
5.5
|
5.2
|
5.4
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
6.7
|
6.8
|
|
Private investment
|
24.9
|
13.4
|
26.2
|
13.2
|
14.6
|
16.2
|
17.6
|
18.3
|
19.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Central government operations
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenue (including grants)
|
13.9
|
14.1
|
14.9
|
15.4
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
15.5
|
15.5
|
15.4
|
|
Oil revenue
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
2.3
|
2.0
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
|
Non-oil revenue
|
11.7
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.7
|
13.1
|
13.4
|
13.6
|
13.7
|
|
Non-oil revenue (percent of non-oil GDP)
|
12.1
|
12.4
|
12.5
|
12.5
|
13.2
|
13.5
|
13.8
|
13.9
|
14.0
|
|
Total expenditure
|
17.0
|
16.5
|
16.7
|
17.4
|
16.5
|
16.4
|
16.4
|
17.1
|
17.1
|
|
Overall fiscal balance (payment order basis)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluding grants
|
-3.4
|
-2.6
|
-2.4
|
-2.5
|
-1.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.8
|
-1.9
|
|
Including grants
|
-3.1
|
-2.4
|
-1.8
|
-1.9
|
-0.7
|
-0.7
|
-0.8
|
-1.7
|
-1.7
|
|
Overall fiscal balance (cash basis)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluding grants
|
-3.8
|
-3.0
|
-2.7
|
-3.0
|
-1.5
|
-1.3
|
-1.2
|
-1.8
|
-1.9
|
|
Including grants
|
-3.5
|
-2.8
|
-2.2
|
-2.5
|
-1.2
|
-1.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.7
|
-1.7
|
|
Non-oil primary balance (payment basis, percent of
non-oil GDP)
|
-4.0
|
-3.4
|
-3.4
|
-4.2
|
-2.8
|
-2.3
|
-2.1
|
-2.8
|
-2.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
External sector
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade balance
|
-1.1
|
-1.5
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
-1.3
|
-2.0
|
-2.1
|
-2.1
|
-1.9
|
|
Oil exports
|
4.7
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
7.5
|
6.0
|
4.8
|
4.1
|
3.6
|
3.3
|
|
Non-oil exports
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.6
|
9.4
|
8.7
|
8.1
|
7.9
|
7.7
|
7.7
|
|
Imports
|
13.8
|
14.5
|
14.6
|
17.6
|
16.0
|
14.9
|
14.1
|
13.5
|
12.9
|
|
Current account balance
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluding official grants
|
-3.7
|
-4.4
|
-2.4
|
-2.6
|
-3.0
|
-3.5
|
-3.6
|
-3.5
|
-3.1
|
|
Including official grants
|
-3.4
|
-4.0
|
-2.0
|
-2.1
|
-2.6
|
-3.2
|
-3.3
|
-3.2
|
-2.9
|
|
Terms of trade
|
5.2
|
7.0
|
3.4
|
7.1
|
-7.1
|
-6.9
|
-4.6
|
-3.2
|
-2.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public debt
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stock of public debt
|
47.2
|
45.5
|
45.0
|
44.0
|
41.3
|
38.8
|
36.7
|
35.6
|
34.7
|
|
Of which:
external debt
|
33.9
|
31.6
|
32.8
|
31.2
|
30.3
|
29.2
|
28.2
|
27.6
|
26.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Cameroonian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections
using updated nominal GDP.
1/ Percent of broad money at the beginning of the period.
Sources: Cameroonian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections
using updated nominal GDP.
1/ Percent of broad money at the beginning of the period.
