Washington, DC: The Ukrainian authorities have requested a four-month Program Monitoring
with Board Involvement (PMB) to support their economic program, anchor
macroeconomic policies, and pave the way to a fully-fledged IMF program. An
International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Gavin Gray held
virtual discussions with the Ukrainian authorities during November 11-22 to
discuss the key elements of their program. At the conclusion of the
mission, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
“The mission and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level
agreement on economic policies for a Program Monitoring with Board
Involvement (PMB). The agreement is subject to approval by IMF Management
and an IMF Executive Board discussion is expected in the coming weeks. The
PMB will help provide an anchor for macroeconomic policies and catalyze
donor support. Strong policy implementation would help pave the way towards
a full-fledged IMF-supported program.
“The war continues to have a devasting social and economic impact on
Ukraine, involving substantial civilian deaths, the relocation of more than
a third of the population through migration or internal displacement, and
colossal damage to infrastructure and productive capacity. Economic
activity is expected to stabilize in 2023, with growth at 1 percent under
the baseline scenario, following a 33 percent contraction this year.
Inflation is projected to remain elevated at around 25 percent on average.
With the war ongoing, Ukraine will continue to require substantial external
financing to ensure adequate resources for the core functions of the state
while preserving economic stability.
“The authorities’ budget for 2023 features a very tight expenditure
envelope in view of the significant financing constraints. To help create
fiscal space, the authorities intend to take measures to boost tax revenues
including through restoring pre-war tax administration practices. New
measures that might erode tax revenues will be avoided.
“The availability of timely external financing will support the
authorities’ efforts to preserve the core functions of the state, while
maintaining economic and financial stability. Achieving these goal will
also require concerted efforts to mobilize domestic financing through
higher rollover rates on the domestic market against a backdrop of ample
liquidity.
“As regards monetary and exchange rate policies, the authorities continue
to carefully monitor developments, manage liquidity, and balance the FX
market with the overall aim of safeguarding price and exchange rate
stability while sustaining adequate international reserves. They are fully
committed to upholding the independence and institutional effectiveness of
the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“The authorities have skillfully maintained financial stability during the
war through emergency prudential and capital flow measures applied to banks
and are now appropriately preparing to gradually unwind these measures and
restore international norms. To help co-ordinate these efforts, the NBU’s
financial sector strategy will be updated and expanded to cover targeted
bank diagnostics, recapitalization and non-performing asset resolution
frameworks, and further development of contingency plans.
“Renewed efforts are needed toward cementing good corporate governance
practices in state-owned enterprises and banks and ensuring the
independence of their supervisory boards. The preservation of independent,
competent, and trustworthy anti-corruption institutions is essential.
“The IMF team met with Finance Minister Marchenko, NBU Governor Pyshnyy and
other senior public officials, and would like to thank the authorities for
their open and constructive discussions and looks forward to continuing
close cooperation in the period ahead.”