Washington, DC:
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved
42-month
ECF
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EFF
arrangements of SDR 2.5 billion (equivalent to
231.4 percent of quota or about US$3.3 billion), and a concurrent
RSF
arrangement of SDR 1 billion (equivalent to 93.8 percent of quota or about
US$1.4 billion) to support Bangladesh’s economic policies.
Bangladesh is the first country in Asia to receive financing under the
RSF.
Approval of the ECF/EFF arrangements enables immediate disbursement of SDR
352.35 million (about US$476 million). 1
Bangladesh’s robust economic recovery from the pandemic has been
interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a sharp widening of
Bangladesh’s current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka and a
decline in foreign exchange reserves. The authorities have taken on a
comprehensive set of measures to deal with these latest economic
disruptions. The authorities recognize that in addition to tackling these
immediate challenges, long-standing structural issues and vulnerabilities
related to climate change will also need to be addressed to accelerate
growth, attract private investment, enhance productivity, and build climate
resilience.
The IMF-supported program under the ECF/EFF arrangements will help preserve
macroeconomic stability and prevent disruptive adjustments to protect the
vulnerable, while laying the foundations for strong, inclusive, and
environmentally sustainable growth. The concurrent RSF arrangement will
supplement the resources made available under the ECF/EFF to expand the
fiscal space to finance climate investment priorities identified in the
authorities’ plans, help catalyze additional financing, and build
resilience against long-term climate risks.
At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Ms. Antoinette M.
Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, made the following
statement:
“Since independence, Bangladesh has made steady progress in reducing
poverty and significant improvements in living standards. However, the
COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Russia’s war in Ukraine interrupted this
long period of robust economic performance. Multiple shocks have made
macroeconomic management challenging in Bangladesh.
While confronting challenges resulting from the global headwinds, the
authorities need to accelerate their ambitious reform agenda to achieve a
more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth. In this regard,
substantial investment in human capital and infrastructure will be needed
to achieve Bangladesh’s aspiration to reach upper-middle income status by
2031 and meet the Sustainable and Development Goals (SDGs). The authorities
recognize these challenges and also the need to tackle climate change
issues, which expose the economy to large risks that could threaten
macroeconomic stability.
The ECF/EFF arrangement will protect macroeconomic stability and rebuild
buffers, while helping to advance the authorities’ reform agenda. The
implementation of the domestic revenue mobilization strategy that relies on
both tax policy and revenue administration reforms will allow increasing
social, development and climate spending sustainably. Fiscal reforms to
strengthen the management of public finance, investment, and debt will
improve spending efficiency, governance, and transparency. Reducing
financial sector vulnerabilities, strengthening oversight, enhancing
governance and the regulatory framework, and developing capital markets
will help mobilize financing to support growth objectives.
Structural reforms to create conducive environment to expand trade and
foreign direct investment, deepening the financial sector, developing human
capital, and improving governance to enhance the business climate are
needed to lift growth potential.
Access to RSF will provide financing to support Bangladesh’s climate change
adaptation and mitigation efforts. The RSF reforms will complement reforms
under the ECF/EFF by improving climate investment potential, strengthening
institutions and enhancing climate-spending efficiency to build resilience
and catalyze additional official and private finance."
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Table 1. Bangladesh: Selected Economic Indicators,
FY2019–27 1/
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FY19
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FY20
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FY21
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FY22
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FY23
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FY24
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FY25
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FY26
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FY27
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Est.
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Proj.
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Real GDP
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7.9
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3.4
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6.9
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7.2
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5.5
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6.5
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7.1
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7.3
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7.4
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Consumption
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Private
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4.9
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3.0
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8.0
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13.2
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7.6
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6.5
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4.1
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4.7
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5.7
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Public
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13.4
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2.0
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6.9
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5.8
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-7.5
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4.7
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6.1
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6.3
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7.3
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Gross Capital Formation
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8.6
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0.2
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8.1
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10.0
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-6.2
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10.5
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12.4
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11.8
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10.9
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Private
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8.6
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0.2
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7.8
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9.3
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-11.7
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9.1
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10.9
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9.3
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12.5
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Public
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0.7
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18.2
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9.1
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12.1
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11.0
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13.9
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16.2
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17.5
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7.7
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Trade
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Exports of goods and services
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11.5
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-17.5
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9.2
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23.2
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-7.2
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8.6
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8.9
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9.0
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9.3
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Imports of goods and services
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0.5
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-11.4
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15.3
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45.1
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-22.6
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14.2
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5.1
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6.0
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8.6
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Prices
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GDP deflator
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3.7
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3.8
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4.1
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5.0
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5.2
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4.8
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4.5
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4.5
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5.4
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CPI
inflation (annual average)
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5.5
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5.6
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5.6
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6.1
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8.9
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6.5
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5.6
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5.5
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5.5
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CPI inflation (end of period)
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5.5
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6.0
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5.6
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7.6
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8.1
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5.9
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5.5
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5.5
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5.5
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(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise
indicated)
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Central Government Operations
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Total revenue and grants
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8.1
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8.5
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9.4
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8.7
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8.8
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9.3
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9.7
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10.3
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10.2
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Of which
: Tax revenue
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7.5
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7.0
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7.6
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7.8
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7.8
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8.3
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8.8
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9.4
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9.4
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Total expenditure
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13.6
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13.3
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13.0
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12.6
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14.5
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14.4
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14.8
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15.3
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15.2
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Of which
: Annual Development Program (ADP)
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5.1
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4.9
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4.5
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4.5
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5.2
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5.6
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6.0
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6.5
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6.4
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Overall balance (including grants)
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-5.4
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-4.8
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-3.6
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-3.8
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-5.6
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-5.1
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-5.0
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-5.0
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-5.0
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(excluding
grants)
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-5.5
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-4.9
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-3.7
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-3.9
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-5.7
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-5.2
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-5.1
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-5.1
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-5.0
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Primary balance (including grants)
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-3.7
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-3.0
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-1.6
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-2.1
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-3.8
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-3.3
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-3.3
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-3.3
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-3.3
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Public sector total debt 2/
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32.0
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34.5
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35.6
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39.0
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42.1
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42.2
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42.3
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42.5
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42.3
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Of which
: External debt
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13.9
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14.6
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15.1
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17.0
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18.9
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19.0
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18.6
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18.1
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17.3
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Balance of Payments
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Current account balance
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-1.3
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-1.5
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-1.1
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-4.1
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-3.2
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-4.2
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-3.5
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-3.0
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-3.0
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Trade balance
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-5.4
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-5.4
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-6.4
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-10.8
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-7.6
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-8.4
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-7.5
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-6.7
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-6.4
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Service balance
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-0.9
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-0.7
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-0.7
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-0.8
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-0.8
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-0.9
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-0.8
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-0.6
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-0.6
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Income balance
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-0.7
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-0.8
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-0.8
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-0.7
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-0.9
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-0.9
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-0.9
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-0.8
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-0.8
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Transfers
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4.8
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5.0
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6.1
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4.7
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5.3
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5.1
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4.8
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4.5
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4.2
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of which: Remittances
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4.7
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4.9
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6.0
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4.6
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5.1
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4.9
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4.6
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4.4
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4.1
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Capital account balance
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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0.0
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0.0
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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Financial account balance
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1.5
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2.3
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3.1
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3.0
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2.5
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5.5
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5.2
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5.0
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4.6
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Foreign direct investment, net
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0.7
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0.3
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0.3
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0.5
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0.7
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1.0
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1.2
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1.3
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1.3
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Gross international reserves (billions
of U.S.dollars) 32.7
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36.0
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46.4
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33.4
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30.0
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34.2
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40.0
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46.4
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53.1
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in months of next year's imports
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6.5
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6.1
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5.8
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4.6
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3.5
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3.8
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4.2
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4.4
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4.5
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Monetary and Credit
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Reserve money
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8.3
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8.9
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9.8
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8.7
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9.0
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9.0
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9.0
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9.1
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9.1
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Broad money (M2)
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52.0
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53.8
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54.6
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52.8
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52.8
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53.6
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54.2
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54.8
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55.4
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Credit to private sector
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37.2
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37.3
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36.2
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36.6
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36.7
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37.5
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37.9
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38.0
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38.7
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Savings and Investment
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Gross national savings
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31.1
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31.4
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30.8
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25.6
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27.8
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28.0
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30.2
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32.0
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32.9
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Public
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0.6
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1.0
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1.9
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1.3
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0.7
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1.6
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2.1
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2.8
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2.7
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Private
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30.5
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30.4
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28.9
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24.2
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27.1
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26.4
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28.0
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29.2
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30.1
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Gross investment
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32.2
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31.3
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31.0
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31.7
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31.0
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32.2
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33.7
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35.0
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35.8
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Public
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7.0
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7.3
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7.3
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7.6
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8.8
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9.5
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10.2
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11.2
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11.1
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Private
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25.2
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24.0
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23.7
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24.1
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22.2
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22.8
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23.5
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23.9
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24.7
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Memorandum item:
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Nominal GDP (in billions oftaka)
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29,514
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31,705
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35,302
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39,765
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44,133
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49,258
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55,129
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61,816
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69,993
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Sources: Bangladesh authorities; and
IMF staff estimates and projections.
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1/ Fiscal year begins on July 1 and
ends on June 30.
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2/ Includes central government's gross
debt, including debt owed to the IMF,
plus domestic bank borrowing by
nonfinancial public sector and public
enterprises' external borrowing
supported by government guarantees,
including short-term oil-related
suppliers’ credits.
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3/ Program financing (+ purchases, -
repurchases) is included under the
Financial Account, with consistent sign
conversion.
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[1]
SDR figures for the program are converted at the market rate of
U.S. dollar per SDR
on the day of program approval.